🌍 What’s Bibi doing back in Gaza?

Quick update: India-Pakistan conflict

Jets down as India pulls the trigger on its Kashmir retaliation

• India has now hit sites across Pakistan-controlled turf in response to last month’s Kashmir terrorist attack (the two sides dispute what exactly India has hit)

• But Pakistan now says it’s downed five Indian jets (Delhi reportedly cedes at least three have “crashed”), and the two neighbours are trading artillery along Kashmir

• This is the ‘miscalculation’ phase we flagged, with nuclear foes now at arms, and Pakistan vowing a response

• World leaders are calling for de-escalation, but it’s unclear how much Modi and Sharif are still listening at this point — folks on both sides are baying for blood

What’s Bibi doing back in Gaza?

After weeks of Israeli air strikes, ground raids, and blockades billed as pressure tactics to force Hamas to release the final 59 hostages, the Israeli security cabinet has unanimously approved a plan to expand back across Gaza. The details of this ‘Gideon’s Chariots’ directive remain fuzzy, but an Israeli official has told media it’ll include: 

• “the capture of the Strip and holding the territories”

• “moving the Gazan population south for its defence”

• “denying Hamas the ability to distribute humanitarian supplies”, and

• “powerful attacks against Hamas”.

Other reported details have emerged via media outlets, including:

• The destruction of all northern tunnels, and any structures deemed a threat

• The screening of civilians moved southwards (to filter out Hamas members), and  

• A new Israeli-controlled aid delivery via private contractors (to prevent Hamas from diverting aid — it’s unclear if this would end Israel’s blockade since March).

So, what’s going on? Here are the main theories…

• A negotiation tactic?

One senior Israeli official is telling outlets this plan won’t be implemented until after President Trump’s visit to the Middle East next week, calling it a “window of opportunity” for Hamas to release the hostages and agree to a new ceasefire.

Relatedly, Netanyahu might also be hoping to stoke Gazan unrest against Hamas, building on recent rare anti-Hamas protests across the strip.

But having survived the onslaught so far, and having crushed any dissent since it seized power in 2007, it’s hard to see why Hamas might change course now. To the contrary, Hamas remarks suggest some of the group’s leaders see casualties as tools to:

• Increase global pressure on — and delegitimise — Israel, plus

• Mobilise local support through resistance and martyrdom narratives.

Whatever it is, against the backdrop of Israel warning of an open-ended re-occupation of Gaza, Hamas officials have now declared there’s “no point in any negotiations“. 

• A military tactic?

Bibi argues the plan will hasten the defeat of Hamas, with this ‘clear and hold’ strategy stopping Hamas from regrouping like it did last time. And that, he says, will hasten the release of the remaining 59 hostages (Israeli intelligence now believes only half are alive). 

But none of the hostage families are buying it; condemnation of the humanitarian cost continues; and Hamas’s big hostage release ceremonies (with military uniforms and arms) were a reminder of the difficulty of removing the group via military means alone.

So that’s led to claims this is nothing but… 

• A political tactic 

This plan has emerged after months of continued Israeli protests and rising discontent towards Bibi’s government, so there’s an argument it could be:

• A distraction from economic woes and the backlash over his judicial reforms

• A deflection from criticism over the ceasefire’s collapse, and/or

• A protection against coalition instability, by throwing red meat to his ultra-nationalist allies (parts of the plan echo their rhetoric).

Or yes… maybe this plan is exactly what it says on the label, and even a step towards what Bibi’s hardliners now openly seek: the permanent re-occupation of Gaza.

Intrigue’s Take

If Israel proceeds with this plan, it’s not only heading down a perilous path with the Palestinians, but also potentially foreclosing other paths to a broader peace with its region. Rising players like the Saudis are already conditioning any recognition of Israel on Palestinian statehood, and that position will get wider and deeper as these wounds fester.

Israel’s isolation then risks becoming America’s isolation, given how many of the world’s ascendant players (including most of the BRICS and beyond) increasingly align their Israel-Palestinian advocacy with broader efforts to counter US influence. And that’s all playing out as US public sympathy for Israel hits 25-year lows (particularly among younger voters).

Maybe it’s hubris after his recent successes against Hezbollah and beyond, but history might show that Bibi is now flying way too close to the sun.

Sound even smarter:

• The Israeli military already holds around one-third of Gaza.

• Most Israelis supported moving onto the second phase of the ceasefire. 

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Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

The Intrigue jobs board 💼

• International Trade Analyst @ Sidley Austin LLP in Washington, D.C.

• Data Analyst @ Blackbird in Sydney

• Executive Director @ United Nations Population Fund in NYC

• Political Adviser @ ICRC in Nairobi

Tourist attraction of the day

When trying to wow your friends with some sweet sweet travel pics, perception is key. Share the above image on the left, and folks’ll be amazed you rode a mystical white steed to reconnect with your inner peace while wandering the foothills of Japan’s Mount Fuji.

But share the one on the right? Your buddies might realise you’ve actually just visited China’s new fake Mount Fuji tourist attraction in northern Hebei province — a small hill painted white on top (visit during the holidays, and you might see it spew pink smoke!).

China’s social media is awash with visitors bemused to find that, a little like The Truman Show, there’s even a small door and staircase ‘round the back. Tickets cost $13.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: What do you think has the most influence on the papal election?

🌍 Regional dynamics (8%)
🇻🇦 Internal dynamics (78%)
🕊️ Religious considerations (12%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)

Your two cents:

• 🇻🇦 N.D: “As much as I want to click ‘Religious considerations,’ centuries of Church history highlight the primacy of politics.”

• 🕊️ D.R: “The Pope is elected to serve God first, people second. Voting certainly follows this pattern.”

• 🌍 E.K.M: “A major focus of Francis’ papacy was including voices from all over the world, and I think we’re going to see that in action.”

• ✍️ S.M: “If you want to make God laugh, tell Him about your plans.”