Plus: Photo of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Davos in the desert |
2️⃣ Yemeni coffee in NYC |
3️⃣ Photo of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Over the last year or so, one unlikely country has emerged as a ‘must-see’ bucket list travel destination among the more intrepid #influencers. Can you take a guess at which country?
If you guessed Saudi Arabia, you’re bang on. Specifically, there’s been a pull towards Saudi cities that cater towards eco or heritage tourism. And, of course, it doesn’t hurt if those destinations have also featured in lux mags like, say Vogue.
The photos I’ve seen of one of these places really blew my mind. The pics were of a venue named the Maraya Concert Hall, which is apparently the largest mirrored building ever constructed, all set against landscape that looks like Mars.
IMO, it would have been a choice venue for Saudi Arabia’s ‘Davos of the Desert’, which is our top story for today.
PS – Next week’s US elections will be felt around the world, so don’t miss our post-election webinar on November 12 to unpack The New President’s Agenda for a Tumultuous World. Register here.
US proposal for Lebanon ceasefire leaked.
The US is proposing an initial 60-day ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli and Hezbollah forces from southern Lebanon. In addition, Israel would retain the right to strike Hezbollah in “self-defence against imminent threats” and continue flying over Lebanon to collect intelligence. The US has confirmed the leaked document as authentic, but says there’ve since been a few edits.
North Korea fires ballistic missile in longest flight yet.
The intercontinental ballistic missile flew for 86 minutes and reached as high as 7,000km (4,350 miles) after being launched vertically, before crashing into the ocean off Japan – if launched horizontally, it could theoretically reach anywhere in the US. The launch is a breach of UN sanctions and seems to have been timed to make a statement of defiance just before the US election. Btw – don’t miss the next edition of Election Intrigue, our weekly briefing on how the US election impacts the world (and vice versa).
US growth comes in at 2.8%.
The US economy expanded by an annualised 2.8% last quarter thanks to strong consumer spending, according to the latest GDP report yesterday (Wednesday). Economists (plus a few Democrats, no doubt) are hoping today’s inflation data will be similarly rosy.
Microsoft and Meta do so well their shares… sink.
While we’re on rosy growth data, US tech giants Microsoft and Meta have reported higher-than-expected revenues in Q3, but their shares still sank due to investor concerns around high AI spending and a projected cooling in the cloud sector.
Milei fires foreign minister after UN Cuba vote.
Argentina’s president has replaced Diana Mondino as minister just hours after her ambassador to the UN in New York voted against the US embargo on Cuba. Her replacement is Argentina’s current ambassador to the US, Gerardo Werthein. 187 nations backed the annual General Assembly resolution condemning the US embargo, with only the US and Israel casting votes in opposition.
TOP STORY
What’s happening at this year’s ‘Davos in the Desert’
Saudi Arabia’s eighth Future Investment Initiative (FII) summit wraps today, so we thought you might be interested in a pithy summary of the event’s main takeaways, perhaps with some medium-quality lols sprinkled throughout (no guarantees).
But first, some context. The FII is a yearly summit bringing together leaders in the tech, finance, and policymaking world. Its all-star line-up, billion-dollar themes, and exclusive location have earned it the nickname ‘Davos in the desert’.
This year’s FII is again happening around the Ritz Carlton Riyadh, where the kingdom’s crown prince (‘MBS’) famously detained hundreds of fellow Saudi royals and senior officials for a forced vacation during his 2017 power grab. FII attendance dipped after that episode, then dipped again after Saudi agents dismembered a dissident in 2018.
But the business world has a remarkable capacity to forgive and forget when there’s cash on the line, and you can see that in the thousands of big name attendees at this year’s opening lights show and moving opera performance. But we digress.
Here are four of the most interesting quotes from this year’s summit.
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“Now our target is to bring [international investment] down to a range between 18 to 20 per cent” – Saudi Public Investment Fund governor Yasir al-Rumayyan
It’s not often you hear someone setting a target to decrease investment. So what’s up? With an economy reliant on exporting fossil fuels, the Saudis long invested their profits abroad through their sovereign wealth fund, the $1T-strong Public Investment Fund.
But Governor al-Rumayyan says his fund will curb total foreign investments from a peak of 30% in 2020 to a 20-18% range moving forward. The decision reflects the kingdom’s new strategy that prioritises investments within Saudi Arabia to put its economy on a more sustainable path, and particularly to finance the crown prince’s ‘Vision 2030’. Tough luck for any ailing European football clubs hoping for some sweet Saudi cash.
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“We are at that moment of peak uncertainty. It is a race that Trump is favoured to win but it is almost a coin toss” – Citadel founder Ken Griffin
The US elections have dominated much of the water cooler banter at this FII, though business leaders are typically cautious about what (if anything) they say in public. So it’s been interesting to see how different US tycoons have handled the topic on stage.
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Citadel’s Ken Griffin (who’s donated $100M to Republican PACs this cycle but hasn’t endorsed a candidate) dared to call a favourite above, but otherwise he just noted the uncertainty
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BlackRock’s Steve Schwarzman (who’s backing Trump after distancing himself in the wake of January 6th) declined to call a winner, though still snuck in a plug, saying he thinks Trump 2.0 “is in a much better base of knowledge” than Trump 1.0, and
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Goldman’s David Solomon took the ultimate safe option, which is just to state literal, vanilla-flavoured facts: “We do have an election and there will be policy decisions coming out. Those will have an impact on the trajectory in 2025 and 2026.” Hold the front page. And rather than plug a candidate, Solomon then did the ultimate Goldman thing: he plugged Goldman, saying the bank is well placed for either outcome.
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“The cost of autonomy is falling so quickly that the drone war, which is the future of conflict, will get rid of eventually tanks, artillery, mortars” – former Google CEO, Eric Schmidt
Folks have been much more willing to speak their mind on the other hot topic this year: AI. Some of the more interesting insights came from former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who shared some intriguing deets on his latest venture (White Stork) building AI-enhanced military drones.
The firm has apparently already tested its gear on the battlefield in Ukraine, and the initial results have left Schmidt betting that these cost-effective weapons will rapidly transform the way we wage war: “The guns should be automated, and the people should be drinking coffee somewhere else”. Sounds a bit like BattleBots to us, but ok.
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“We will monetise every molecule of energy this land has, period” – Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman
Two weeks out from the next COP climate talks in fellow petrostate Azerbaijan, the above line is a reminder not just to look at what climate ministers say in Baku, but also what energy ministers say back home. And it’s the energy ministers who’ll typically be closest to power.
But of course, researchers keep publishing the evidence about our carbon sinks not working, our critical Atlantic currents approaching collapse, and our weather getting wilder. So at some point, the energy transition must merge the role of energy and climate minister (it’s already happened in several capitals) as tech helps de-conflict the two priorities. But oil exporters are clearly in no hurry.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
There are lots of good reasons to head to Riyadh this time of year: the lovely +30°C temperatures, the avant-garde architecture, plus the Ritz buffet slaps, too.
So it’s interesting to look at who’s not there. And surprise surprise, the Emiratis (UAE) skipped it. It’s another reminder of their growing behind-the-scenes rivalry, driven by oil (the Emiratis resent Saudi dominance of OPEC); security (they increasingly back different players in the region); Israel (only the Emiratis have joined the Abraham Accords); and vision (they both have ‘Vision 2030’ plans, putting them in direct competition for regional investment, prestige, and leadership).
One of the things these two rivals still have in common, however, is discomfort around the very same thing that’s hardly been mentioned in Riyadh this week: the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war. With both the Saudis and Emiratis racing to diversify and modernise, a regional war is the last thing they want investors worrying about.
Also worth noting:
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The Emiratis released their Vision 2030 way back in 2008. The Saudis then launched their own Vision 2030 in 2016.
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A new documentary (just released on Sunday) claims 21,000 labourers have died working on the Saudi Vision 2030.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇲🇳 Mongolia: Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev has completed his first state visit to nearby Mongolia in 16 years, as he continues to hail a broader renaissance across Central Asia. Mongolia’s largest minority group – at 117,000 strong – also happens to be made up of Kazakhs.
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🇳🇴 Norway: Oslo is picking at random some 40,000 Norwegians to potentially fill 66 spots in a group that’ll help decide how Norway manages its $1.8T sovereign wealth fund. Since its 1998 founding with oil and gas revenues, the fund has grown to become the world’s largest, now worth a cool $316k per person.
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🇨🇳 China: German airline Lufthansa has told an earnings call that it’s shifting its focus from transatlantic to Asian freight routes (particularly China and Vietnam). CEO Carsten Spohr noted that while passenger operations on Asia-Pacific routes have taken a hit since the pandemic, cargo demand is on the rise.
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🇸🇻 El Salvador: China and El Salvador have held their first trade and economic committee meeting in San Salvador, pledging to “accelerate bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations.” El Salvador just switched its diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China six years ago, and is hoping (like neighbouring Honduras and Nicaragua) it’ll soon get an FTA in return.
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🇧🇼 Botswana: Diamond-rich Botswana is counting the votes after national elections yesterday (Wednesday), against a backdrop of 27% unemployment. Its economy has been hit by a global drop in demand for mined diamonds, which account for a quarter of the country’s GDP and 80% of its exports.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Meanwhile, in other worlds…
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Sports: The baseball World Series now has better TV ratings in Japan than in the US, thanks to superstar Shohei Ohtani who helped the Dodgers win.
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Science: Researchers have found that animals get drunk more frequently than previously thought (honestly, we always thought this particular frequency was zero).
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Coffee: Yemeni coffee houses have become a hit in New York City (Yemeni coffee is apparently earthier).
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Credits: Maria Anna Caneva Saccardo Caterina/Apopo.
Move aside drug-busting dogs, cat-sized rats have entered the sniffing business.
Conducting research at Tanzania’s main seaport in Dar es Salaam, Belgian non-profit APOPO found that rats can detect 83% of smuggled wildlife merch — we’re talking things like pangolin scales, rhinoceros horn, and elephant tusks.
Once the rat identifies the target, they’re able to alert their handler by pulling on a little custom-made ball attached to their vest – pictured above!
But if you’re worried about all those sniffer dogs losing their jobs, don’t fret — researchers say the rats are a “complementary tool” who can better sniff their way through tightly packed containers, while dogs are ace at tracking across vast areas like national parks.
DAILY POLL
Where do you see Gulf influence headed? |
Yesterday’s poll: How are you feeling about next week's US election?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤞 Hopeful (24%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 😟 Nervous (44%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 😩 Make it stop (30%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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😟 K.I: “With a 50/50 split, this election will probably amplify the divide.”
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🤞 T.E.I: “Let's just hope the days immediately after the election and transition day in January are violence free!”
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🤞 C.S.C: “Whoever we get, we deserve.”
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✍️ A.P: “The 2024 president-elect will fail no matter who it is, and the REAL change will come in 2028 once the new party-line coalitions form.”
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😩 M.S: “I just want it to be over, so we can all figure out next steps. It feels like everything is just holding until the election is decided.”
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