Plus: Heist of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ What’s Israel doing in Syria? |
2️⃣ Diplomats on the move |
3️⃣ Heist of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I reckon if I did a ‘word cloud’ of all my diplomatic cables from when I served in Israel, it would probably have heavily featured the following words: ‘Israel’, ‘Syria’, ‘missiles’, ‘attacks’, and ‘deterrence’. (Oh, and of course, the word ‘grateful’ — that’s a classic in diplo-talk.)
Even though the broader Middle East has transformed since I left the region, the dynamics of engagement between Israel and Syria remain largely the same. Israel wants to deter extremist elements within Syria from getting a foothold on its border, while Syria is looking for domestic unity.
And now, with so much change swirling domestically in Syria and an Israel-friendly (and busy) US administration, there’s opportunity for some new ‘rules of the game’ there to be set. That’s our top story today.
Trump threatens 25% import tariffs on EU.
Adding detail to an earlier threat, the US president has now flagged he’s planning to impose 25% tariffs on cars and other goods out of Europe, where markets opened sharply lower this morning (Thursday). Meanwhile, in another possible sign of deteriorating ties, Marco Rubio has reportedly cancelled at the last-minute his meeting with top EU diplomat and former Estonian PM Kaja Kallas, citing “scheduling issues”.
US to withhold Ukraine security guarantees?
Donald Trump has reiterated the US won’t offer security guarantees to Ukraine “beyond very much”, emphasising this’ll be Europe’s responsibility instead. President Zelensky is due in DC tomorrow (Friday) to sign a minerals deal he hopes might help repair US-Ukraine ties.
Nvidia revenues beat expectations (again).
Year-on-year revenue for the semiconductor company climbed another 78% in the fourth quarter of 2024, after it registered a cool $39.3B in revenue. This was Nvidia’s first earnings call since China’s DeepSeek AI chatbot made its splash in the global AI space.
Iran’s uranium stockpiles keep growing.
Iran’s stockpiles of near-nuclear-grade uranium have expanded since it announced a ramp-up in December, with the UN nuclear watchdog now describing the situation as a “serious concern”, and warning the window to contain Iran’s nuclear activity is closing.
Chevron Venezuela license to be terminated.
Donald Trump has said he’ll revoke a license for US oil giant Chevron to operate in Venezuela, in response to President Maduro’s electoral fraud. Oil prices rose on the news.
TOP STORY
What’s Israel doing in Syria?
Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa, and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu
Israel has just struck what it’s described as military sites near Damascus and across Syria’s south (near Israel). Why? The defence minister, Israel Katz, says it won’t let southern Syria become another “southern Lebanon” — ie, a stronghold for hostile forces like Hezbollah.
But beyond the missiles and statements, this all raises three big questions.
First, why did Israel strike now?
Two things just happened. To start, the US just got its newest spymaster, Tulsi Gabbard, a staunch advocate for prioritising the defeat of al-Qaeda in Syria and elsewhere (ie, more so than ousting dictators like Syria’s old Assad).
And that view increasingly overlaps with the view in Israel, where top envoy Gideon Saar is calling Syria’s new rulers an "Islamic jihad terrorist group” — that’s a reference to the al-Qaeda roots of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) faction now driving developments in Syria.
So while the Biden Administration and Europe started withdrawing bounties and lifting sanctions based on HTS assurances that it cut its al-Qaeda ties years ago, Israel remains wary, seeking to de-fang whoever’s left running Syrian turf near Israel. But why now?
Syria’s new caretaker government just wrapped up its national dialogue, a rare moment aimed at knitting together a fractured country. So Israel might’ve chosen that moment to strike, whether to a) make itself heard among Syria’s new rulers, b) hit while any armed factions were focused inwards, and/or c), prevent Syria stabilising or uniting too much, lest it become too strong.
Second, how is the rest of the world reacting?
For now, mostly with silence. While many view Syria’s transition away from Assad as a net positive, key regional and international powerbrokers are now busy either tackling the Russo-Ukraine war or figuring out phase two of the Israel-Hamas truce.
But that silence can also be revealing. While key Gulf states are emerging as Syria’s primary financial backer, and Turkey is muscling in as Syria’s key security partner, all are fundamentally competing for influence — and a powerful, united, and independent Syria might not always be the outcome they’re seeking.
Then third, would demilitarisation even be enough for Israel?
Netanyahu has called for a fully demilitarised southern Syria, but it’s unclear how exactly that would look — at its core, any stable and effective government involves having a local monopoly over the use of force.
That’s partly why Syria’s new rulers are attempting to unify the country's armed groups under a Syrian flag. Without that, you don’t have a nation — you have warlordism.
So then, is there a way for Syria to hit this basic milestone while satisfying Netanyahu’s demands? Syria’s new leader (al-Sharaa) has offered assurances that he seeks no conflict and is willing to uphold the 1973 Israel-Syria separation of forces agreement, but Netanyahu isn’t exactly the trusting type.
The other question is whether Syria might instead lean on Turkey to pressure Israel to back off. But while Erdogan has long been a staunch critic and his FM has called Israel’s moves in Syria “expansionist”, Turkey itself has dozens of bases and outposts across northern Syria under the pretext of establishing its own buffer zone against the Kurds.
So even with the acquiescence of HTS, Turkey’s own bigger military footprint in Syria arguably undermines its authority to condemn Israel. Oh, and if you look carefully, Israel has already been building its own narrative to justify any military presence within Syria, increasingly positioning itself as a protector of the minority Druze community.
But of course from the perspective of Syria’s new rulers, any allegations of geopolitical hypocrisy fade against the hard reality of its neighbours now violating its sovereignty.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Pick any spot on a map, and the geopolitical game is often fundamentally the same: deterrence without destabilisation. But at this tentative stage of Syria’s post-Assad life, Israel has now seemingly calculated it’d rather not under-index on deterring its foes.
And yet, while post-Assad Syria clearly has extremist elements, the risk of pre-emptively hitting other parts of Syria is that you could end up merely vindicating — and playing into the narrative of — those very same extremists.
Also worth noting:
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Local reports suggest Syria’s main Kurdish leaders weren’t invited to the national dialogue in Damascus.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: Government figures suggest birth rates rose slightly in South Korea for the first time in nine years in 2024, though (at 0.75) they’re still far below the 2.1 births per woman needed to stabilise the population. The country has one of the world’s lowest birth rates and among the longest life expectancies.
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🇷🇴 Romania: Authorities have detained and charged presidential candidate Călin Georgescu with a series of violations including “incitement to actions against the constitutional order”. Georgescu, whose first-round win last year was annulled over evidence of Russian interference via TikTok, has accused the Romanian establishment of attempting to silence him.
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🇮🇩 Indonesia: Former Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu has met Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto as part of Shoigu’s broader regional tour that’ll also include Malaysia. Indonesia has long maintained a neutral stance abroad, but its new president — who saw Putin last July — has pledged to be bolder.
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🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago: The Caribbean country is reportedly preparing to ask the US to extend a license for the Trinidadian national gas company to co-develop a gas project in Venezuela. The project is at risk of collapse as the White House threatens to reinstate various sanctions against Venezuela.
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🇲🇦 Morocco: Authorities have arrested twelve suspects believed to be part of a Moroccan ISIS cell planning several remote bomb attacks throughout the country. Authorities say the cell had ties with Abderrahmane Assahraoui (a Libyan ISIS leader), and appeared to source weapons from Mali.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Diplomats on the move
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🇬🇧 UK leader Keir Starmer is in the US today (Thursday), with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky due tomorrow.
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🇳🇿 New Zealand deputy PM and foreign minister Winston Peters met top China envoy Wang Yi in Beijing yesterday, with topics including China’s recent military drills in the Tasman Sea (we wrote about that here).
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🇸🇾 Syrian foreign minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani is reportedly planning to travel to neighbouring Turkey for talks on Monday.
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And 🇪🇺 EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has just landed in India with dozens of top officials, hoping to woo the rising power as EU-US ties fray.
HEIST OF THE DAY
The solid gold toilet in question. Credits: Getty Images.
Three men are on trial this week for their involvement in the heist of a fully functioning $6M solid gold toilet from Blenheim Palace, Winston Churchill’s family home near Oxford.
The toilet is not, as one might imagine, a Churchill family heirloom, but rather an art installation named ‘America’ by famed Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan. And if that name rings a bell, you’ve probably heard of his $6M ‘banana taped to a wall’ masterpiece.
DAILY POLL
How do you think Syria's caretaker government should handle its neighbours? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think this mineral deal will make Ukraine safer?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🛡️ Yes, now that the US has a stake in its future (39%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⛔ No, this won't change the war on the ground (57%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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⛔ J.G: “The agreement doesn’t appear to actually do anything.”
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🛡️ V.D: “It can give Trump a ‘win’ that may make him not stop military help.”
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✍️ R: “May change things some, but without solid security terms, still looks poor for Ukraine. Final language should clarify actual agreement.”
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✍️ D: “This may well intensify the war in the short term with Russia going all out to seize more ground — regions already annexed by Russia have a high percentage of the rare earth deposits.”
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