Plus: Passport of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ What’s Ukraine up to in Russia? |
2️⃣ A baseball hazard in Japan |
3️⃣ Passport of the day |
Hi Intriguer. It’s high risk with a surname like mine, but I’ve always thought it’d be cool to get a theory named after me.
Or maybe not? Ask Claudia Sahm, the economist who coined the ‘Sahm Rule’, which basically says we’re in a US recession when a certain unemployment indicator spikes 0.5% above its past-year trough.
Her rule has a perfect track record of identifying recessions dating back at least to 1960. But after new US data triggered the Sahm Rule earlier this month, Dr Sahm herself re-emerged in the media and voiced some regrets:
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First, because her name is now attached to heartache (a recession)
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Second, because her name therefore gets politicised, and
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Third, because she believes her rule is now off: she sees a spike in participation rather than a recession, though she warns of risks ahead.
Anyway, stay tuned for the Dicker Rule. Maybe something about memes?
In the meantime, we bring you what’s going on with Ukraine’s surprise push into Russian territory.
End of the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Highlights of the closing ceremony included a tribute to the volunteers, a lively karaoke session with 80,000 attendees, a stage invasion by athletes during a performance by French band Phoenix, and Tom Cruise rappelling down into the stadium to collect the Olympic flag for the 2028 games in LA.
Asian markets rise as focus shifts to US inflation data.
Investors are now focused on US consumer price index data due out on Wednesday, after US recession fears contributed to last week's market chaos. Stocks in Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan have led the rebound today (Monday), while Japan's markets are closed for Mountain Day.
US deploys more naval assets to the Middle East.
The US is now deploying a guided missile sub, and accelerating the arrival of an aircraft carrier (the USS Abraham Lincoln), amid concerns over a possible Iranian attack on Israel following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. And speaking of Iran…
Trump campaign hacked by Iran?
Donald Trump's presidential campaign has blamed Iran for an apparent hack which resulted in the leaking of campaign documents. Details are still emerging, though Microsoft did announce on Friday that Iranian-linked hackers “sent a spear phishing email in June to a high-ranking official on a presidential campaign.” Btw – don’t miss our weekly Election Intrigue briefing on what the US elections mean for the world (and vice versa).
TOP STORY
What’s Ukraine up to in Russia?
Ukraine’s push into Russia, according to the ‘Institute for the Study of War’ late last week. Reports suggest Ukraine has since expanded its push further.
After days of silence, President Zelensky confirmed on Saturday night what the world already knew via stunned and angry Russian sources: thousands of Ukrainian troops have made a surprise push into Russian territory (Kursk).
Zelensky says it's all to "restore justice" and "push the war out into the aggressor's territory." But it leaves us with a couple of questions.
First, how much does this really matter? It's early, but here are just two of the accurate and yet wildly diverging descriptions you could use in an answer:
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Ukraine has seized just 0.002% of Russia, while Russia controls 20% of Ukraine, and yet…
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It's the first 'invasion' of Russia since WWII, with Ukrainian troops in Russia now closer to Moscow than Russia's occupying troops are to Kyiv.
Meanwhile, Russia’s responses – denial, distortion, distraction, and threats – leave clear it was caught off guard. And that makes it a little tougher to answer our second question: what does Ukraine hope to achieve here?
Ukraine has stayed tight-lipped, but here are some of the more credible theories:
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To punish or pre-empt?
Zelensky himself says Russia has attacked Ukraine 2,000 times this summer from the Kursk region, which warrants a response. There were also reports Russia was planning a push from Kursk into Ukraine's neighbouring Sumy region.
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To distract or dilute?
Ukraine could also be hoping to draw Russian troops away from Ukraine's east, where Russia is still grinding forward in return for 30,000 casualties a month. Or…
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To build leverage?
As speculation lingers that Ukraine’s wary allies could push it to trade its own land for peace after the US elections, Ukraine could now be yoinking Russian territory and prisoners to bolster its hand. Or maybe…
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To boost morale?
Ukraine is enjoying a mood bump right now and, in a battle of wills, that kind of lift has the capacity to shape battlefield performance and help address related challenges around recruitment, not to mention…
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To stiffen allies’ necks?
This push has captivated Western voters, media outlets, and governments. And that’s critical so long as Ukraine's defence relies on Western support, which still ebbs and flows as a campaign issue in the US and beyond. Then what about…
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To demoralise and destabilise?
Russian media outlets usually toe the Kremlin line, but some are now reporting anger among the ~75,000 Russians fleeing their homes, while other outlets are quoting anonymous elites on how humiliating this is for Putin and his circle.
It all erodes Russians' trust in Putin, Putin's trust in his state, and his state's limited trust between its own factions. Meanwhile, could it also be…
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To flip the script?
Ukrainians are already relishing turning Russia’s rhetoric back on Russia, like:
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Shouldn't Russia now give up Kursk to secure peace?
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Doesn't the lack of resistance mean Kursk folks want to join Ukraine?
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Isn't this Ukraine's sphere of influence, warranting a buffer inside Russia?
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And crucially, what about all those threats of Russian 'escalation'? (Russia is for now responding the same as always: by attacking Ukraine’s cities).
And finally…
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A Hail Mary?
Last year's Wagner mutiny revealed the chaos that can erupt when the pot really gets stirred within Russia. So maybe Ukraine, facing Russia's grinding war of attrition at home plus hints of Western fatigue abroad, opted for a Hail Mary?
If that's the play, it could be a sign of weakness rather than strength. But ultimately, it all really depends on what happens next.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Ukraine's progress seems to have slowed, but it's unclear if that's because of Russian resistance, Ukraine’s pivot to solidify its gains, or a reluctance to stretch its own supply lines.
But there are reports now emerging that Ukraine is pushing into additional Russian turf (Belgorod), while digging trenches to fortify its gains in Kursk.
And this all hints that it could take a while to unwind, potentially putting several Ukrainian brigades in a tough spot to defend their gains longer term, but also leaving more time for any internal Russian divisions to metastasize.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: Beijing has resubmitted plans for a ‘super embassy’ near Westminster, testing the newly-elected UK prime minister’s stance on China. UK authorities first rejected the proposal in 2022 after opponents raised security and zoning objections, but China resubmitted its plan unchanged shortly after Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won power.
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🇷🇸 Serbia: Tens of thousands have rallied in Belgrade against a planned lithium mine in western Serbia by UK-Australian mining giant, Rio Tinto. A court last month restored Rio's licence to develop what would be Europe’s largest lithium mine, two years after community protests forced the $2.4B project’s suspension on environmental grounds.
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🇧🇩 Bangladesh: The country’s chief justice and five other top judges have now resigned after student protestors swamped the supreme court over the weekend. Student protests ousted the country’s long-time leader last week, and claimed the supreme court was stacked with her loyalists.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: French investigators have arrived in Brazil to help examine the wreckage of the Voepass-operated ATR-72 turboprop which crashed near São Paulo on Friday, killing all 62 on board. French experts are involved because ATR is a French-Italian firm, and they’re aiming to release a preliminary report within 30 days.
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🇮🇷 Iran: Iran's new president has presented his cabinet for a parliamentary vote of confidence, including veteran diplomat Abbas Araqchi as foreign minister. Araqchi has previously served as Iran’s ambassador to Japan and Finland, and he led Iran’s nuclear negotiations with world powers from 2013 to 2021.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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British authorities have rejected a girl’s passport application due to a mistaken belief that Warner Bros owned the trademark to her name (her parents named her Khaleesi after the Game of Thrones character).
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A Nantucket seagull has somehow robbed a man of his wallet.
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South Korea is going nuts for ‘Toowoomba Pasta’, a dish by the US-based Outback Steakhouse that’s named after Australia's second largest inland city (despite it featuring shrimp and having no link to Australia).
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The mayor of Tokyo has injured her knee while throwing the first pitch at a baseball game (she’s gonna be okay!).
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And… Dolce & Gabbana has unveiled a dog perfume inspired by the founder's pet, retailing for a cool $110.
PASSPORT OF THE DAY
Credits: Norwegian foreign ministry.
Norway’s passports got a glow-up in 2020, beefing up security while retaining some stylistic flair. Designed by Oslo’s Neue studio, these passports come in a few chic shades: turquoise for the diplomats, red for the regular jet-setter, and white for the "I swear this never happens!" emergency passports.
Norway’s passport-holders can flip through the pages to peruse classic Norwegian scenes like fjords and the Northern Lights, while travelling to any of the 190 countries where they now enjoy visa-free access.
DAILY POLL
What do you think this Kursk incursion means? |
Last Thursday’s poll: What do you think the US should do to help confront the opioid crisis?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🤝 Work more closely with China and Mexico (29%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🫂 Invest in community-focused programs (37%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🚓 Focus on taking down cartels (27%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (6%)
Your two cents:
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🫂 T.R: “Going after the demand side will always prove more effective (in the long run) than attempting to control supply.”
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🤝 C.B: “I am a senior at New York University Shanghai, studying China studies – China wants to cooperate more on things like this, and it is up to the United States to genuinely want to cooperate with China.”
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✍️ L.L.B.K: “I work with incarcerated fentanyl addicts. It's all of those options, and about 10 more. It's a lot more complex than hitting one area with everything we've got.“
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🤝 M.A: “Mexico is a key actor, as are many countries where big cartels operate. Working with these countries to combat organized crime is better than plugging leaks forever.”
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