Plus: Online mystery of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ What’s up with USAID? |
2️⃣ Online mystery of the day |
3️⃣ Why Algeria’s leader is trending |
Hi Intriguer. I’ve been through a few ‘re-orgs’ in my time, and boy were they character-building experiences. One happened when I was still a junior-burger at a law firm which merged with another (foreign) law firm. This resulted in some amusing workplace cultural hiccups, and many associates just headed to the competitors.
But I’m sure my own institutional shakeups won’t compare to some of the big changes now in store for US officials, including directives to fundamentally re-shape US foreign aid. That’s our top story today.
PS – Ever wondered what it’s like being a NATO ally right next door to Russia? Don’t miss our candid chat with Lithuania’s high-profile young ex-foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, next Wed 12th Feb at 10.30am ET. Register here!
US pauses Mexico-Canada tariffs as China hits back.
Donald Trump has now paused his 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for a month after his counterparts there made pledges on fentanyl and border security. Meanwhile, Trump’s new 10% tariffs just entered force against China, which has responded with a 15% tariff against US coal and gas, and a 10% tariff against US oil and agricultural equipment. Google is also now facing an antitrust probe in China, where it still continues some business operations despite ending local search services in 2010.
Trump flags minerals-for-aid deal with Ukraine.
Building on an idea first floated by Ukraine, Donald Trump has said the US is looking at a deal that’d see the US get access to Ukraine’s rare earths in exchange for continued US security assistance. Meanwhile, US arms shipments to Ukraine have resumed after a brief weekend pause while the new US administration irons out its policy.
El Salvador offers to host US prisoners.
El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele has offered to take in criminals of any nationality currently held in the US, giving the US the “opportunity to outsource part of its prison system” for a small fee.
North Korean troops leave the frontline.
South Korea’s intelligence agency has now agreed with Ukrainian assessments that North Korean troops have withdrawn from the frontlines in Russia’s Kursk region, after weeks of reportedly suffering heavy casualties in combat against Ukraine.
French PM faces four no-confidence votes.
Spare a thought for French PM François Bayrou who’s facing four no-confidence votes this week after triggering a law that allows him to ram through a contentious 2025 budget without a vote. His first two no-confidence motions are due tomorrow (Wednesday), with his fate depending on several key lawmakers across party lines.
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TOP STORY
What’s up with USAID?
Pictured: The 1990s-era USAID logo.
USAID staffers awoke yesterday (Monday) to an email that there’d be no need to come into the office, because their HQ in DC is now closed.
Opposition lawmakers then gathered outside to demand answers, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has now duly penned letters to the US foreign affairs and relations committees advising there’s a review underway, after which USAID might get absorbed into the State Department.
In defending the move, Rubio argued that USAID had been acting as “a global charity separate from the national interest”. So, what’s going on?
First, what’s USAID?
The US Agency for International Development (with the 10/10 acronym of USAID) emerged at the height of the Cold War under JFK. Since its founding in 1961, it’s been Washington’s primary tool for delivering humanitarian aid and supporting economic development worldwide. The agency now…
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Has a workforce of 10,000 (two-thirds overseas)
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Manages a $43B aid budget
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Focuses particularly on governance, and
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Sends the most assistance to (in order) Ukraine, Ethiopia, Jordan, DR Congo, Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Syria.
Second, why is USAID now in trouble?
It’s faced its fair share of foreign criticism over the years, with governments variously accusing it of meddling in local politics, and even providing cover for the CIA.
But now USAID is also facing tough criticism at home (again), with Marco Rubio calling it “completely uncooperative”, and telling his trailing press pack in El Salvador that while the agency does some good stuff, its projects can often be duplicative.
But did you notice that sneaky parenthetical ‘again’? That’s because this isn’t new…
In the 1990s, Senator Jesse Helms pushed to eliminate USAID as a way to cut costs and downsize the government. Ultimately, the Clinton administration brokered a deal that merged other minor agencies into State while leaving USAID semi-autonomous.
Then in the 2000s, folks questioned some of the new US aid bodies springing up again, and various DC think tanks revived the idea of dismantling or merging USAID into State.
It’s not a new idea abroad, either — Australia folded its own aid agency into its foreign ministry back in 2013, inspiring the UK to follow suit in 2020. Both mergers were similarly about cutting costs and better aligning aid with the national interest, though they were also controversial, with impacts still being felt today (eg, a loss of institutional expertise).
So third, is the US now about to make a mistake?
DC has spent generations building foreign aid as a soft power tool, delivering food, vaccines, and school books in bags labelled From the American People. It’s made the US the world’s largest donor, generating goodwill (and therefore influence) along the way.
But 77 million Americans also just voted for Donald Trump’s vision, including less waste, and a clearer America First focus. And as with any large organisation, you can bet this new review will uncover examples of USAID breaching some of these principles.
But there’s also a risk that, in pursuing one legitimate set of objectives, these aid reforms might disrupt others (like the US effectiveness, goodwill, and influence built up over decades). It ultimately depends a lot on the execution, which the UK and Australian experiences suggest ain’t easy.
And that’s also leading some to wonder…
Fourth, will this cede space to Beijing?
In an immediate branding sense, sure: it’s an easy talking point to contrast (say) China’s latest new bridge in the strategic island nation of Kiribati, against the questions now emerging around whether the US will still co-fund more internet connectivity there.
But in a practical sense, it’s also not as simple as just swapping USAID for China. While its approach is evolving, China has long relied on bigger infrastructure projects via its flagship Belt & Road Initiative, which often carry strict loans and occasional quality concerns. Plus, China is not really in a fiscal position to fill US funding gaps in any case.
But as with so much else under Trump 2.0 right now, a lot will depend on the details.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
There’s a classic quote from a Kenyan official who once quipped that “every time China visits, we get a hospital; every time Britain visits, we get a lecture”.
It’s a reminder that, first, aid is never purely altruistic. Second, the West’s traditional passion for governance (“a lecture”) doesn’t always match local priorities. And third, as competition heats up in our emerging multipolar world, there’s more pressure on donors to focus on what partners want. If you don’t, your rival will.
Also worth noting:
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇹🇼 Taiwan: South African authorities have given Taiwan until the end of March to move the island’s de facto embassy out of South Africa’s administrative capital of Pretoria, though Taiwan says negotiations are still ongoing. South Africa switched its recognition from Taiwan to China back in 1997.
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🇷🇺 Russia: An explosion in a Moscow apartment building has killed the leader of a pro-Russian paramilitary group fighting in eastern Ukraine. Kyiv hasn’t yet commented, but Ukraine’s security services have assassinated various other high-profile figures involved in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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🇦🇺 Australia: Authorities have imposed counterterrorism sanctions on the international white supremacist terrorist group ‘Terrorgram’, as part of efforts to combat antisemitism. Coming after similar moves in the US and UK, it’s the first time Canberra has sanctioned a terrorist entity based entirely online.
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🇵🇦 Panama: Following a visit from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino has announced he won’t renew Panama’s deal to join China’s flagship Belt & Road infrastructure initiative. Rubio had warned that, if Panama didn’t curb China’s influence over the Panama Canal, the US would “take measures necessary to protect its rights”.
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🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: The UAE and Saudi Arabia are reportedly emerging as two possible locations for a future Trump-Putin summit. The two Gulf states have been competing for influence lately, though some in Moscow apparently oppose holding the summit in either country given their close US security ties.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what people around the world are googling
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Music fans in 🇦🇱 Albania looked up ‘Grammys 2025’ to see which artists (like Beyoncé and Kendrick Lamar) snapped up the biggest awards.
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Folks in 🇰🇭 Cambodia searched ‘Barbie Hsu’ after the Taiwanese screen star unexpectedly died of pneumonia.
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And 🇲🇦 Moroccans googled ‘Abdelmadjid Tebboune’ after the Algerian leader announced he’ll normalise ties with Israel once a Palestinian state is established.
ONLINE MYSTERY OF THE DAY
Many of the diplomats among you will be familiar with the social media personality known as ‘diplomattitude’. Run by an anonymous US diplomat (we think), the account has been generating laughs and snorts for years, sharing dry observations on life in the State Department, at embassies, and beyond.
Anyway, diplomattitude slid into our DMs with a cryptic farewell message last night, and then 💨… disappeared. The account no longer exists.
So… if you were the anonymous diplomat behind diplomattitude, drop us a line? On the DL, of course, but we’d love to hear the backstory and (with your permission) maybe even share some of it anonymously with fellow Intriguers.
DAILY POLL
What principles do you think should govern foreign aid? |
Yesterday’s poll: Where do you see this tariff trade war landing?
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🖊️ There'll be a deal soon (12%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💸 This will hurt for a few months, but a deal will emerge (25%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💥 Even if a deal emerges, US ties with its neighbours will take years to repair (60%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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💥 G.L: “This dismantles any trust in American treaties or relationships. It gives China an open field to play in…”
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💸 I.H: “I don't understand why people say it will take years to repair, everyone is quick to turn the page when deals are involved.”
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🖊️ R.N: “This is shaking the world’s economies and there will be a deal soon. Trump loves to see the stock market rise rather than crash.”
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💥 J.B: “The response from Canada, in particular, has been furious. And I can’t see that just fading away, even if a deal is reached soon.”
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