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Todayโs briefing: |
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Good morning Intriguer. The crazy pace of news this week is a great time for me to remind you about Intrigueโs fantastic WhatsApp community.
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The conversation has been going off over the last few days โ weโve benefitted from insightful, on-the-ground assessments of the situation in Kashmir, a top ten list of the best books on foreign affairs, and as of last night, an in depth discussion on whether the new Pope is a Cubs fan or a White Sox fan (a White Sox fan, we think).
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There are some seriously impressive folks in our growing community and we think itโs a fun place to hang out and shoot the breeze.
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If you want in, just grab your personal sharing link below and get five of your friends to subscribe to Intrigue. Itโs that simple!
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Today weโre stepping away from the front pages to focus on one of the most important relationships in the worldโฆ David and Victo Presidents Xi and Putin.
Quick update: Pope Leo XIV
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Habemus Papam!
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It took the cardinals just 24 hours and 24 minutes to elect the first US pope (Robert Prevost is also a citizen of Peru, where heโs served for 31 years)
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Seen as a moderate, heโs the same guy who just tweeted โJD Vance is wrongโ after the VPโs comments on โordo amorisโ (a medieval concept about prioritising love)
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At 69, he will (if the boss above permits) be at the helm for a while
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And yes, not sure why we offered Intriguers a drink if someone from the Americas ended up pope, but youโve gotta admit, thatโs a funny way to go bankrupt. On an unrelated note, anyone want to sponsor our next Intrigue happy hour?
Xi-Putin bromance
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Vladimir Putin is hosting world leaders in Moscow for WWII victory celebrations today.ย
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Why does this matter?
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As Putinโs war continues to warp Russiaโs economy and wreck a generation, he needs to project strength and solidarity for audiences at home and abroad, and
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Todayโs pageantry also helps Putin link Russiaโs sacred WWII struggle against an actual Nazi invasion, with his ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
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But there are a couple other signals on display.
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One inadvertent signal is the fact that this annual military parade is now less than half its pre-war size, reflecting the degree to which all Putinโs chips really are now in Ukraine.
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But the bigger signal is up in the stands: Chinaโs Xi Jinping is one of 20 or so world leaders there today (like Brazilโs Lula, Egyptโs El-Sisi).ย Theyโll each have their own reasons, whether seeking to a) bolster their domestic legitimacy by sitting with the big dogs, and/or b) projecting themselves abroad as real players on a multipolar stage.
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But what really matters โ and what might shape the next century โ is why Xi is there:
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Xi and Putin signed several cooperation agreements, though this is standard for a Xi visit (and details remain scant), but more importantlyโฆ
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Xiโs own op-ed in a Russian paper said the quiet bit out-loud โ โWe must leverage the certainty and resilience of our partnership of strategic coordination to jointly accelerate the shift toward a multipolar world.โ
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Translation: he now sees a historic opportunity (with Russia) to push harder and more quickly towards a post-US-led world.
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So turning up to todayโs parade is a way to signal this not only to Putin and others hoping to curb US influence, but also to the US itself, just as the two start talks in Switzerland.
Intrigueโs Take
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This all leaves us pondering the limits of this โno limitsโ Russia-China partnership:
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While Xi has loaned Putin some industrial capacity, heโs not sending missiles
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While weak oil prices sap Putinโs war machine, Xi is still stiffing him on gas, and
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We also question the degree to which Xi truly wants to lead a gaggle of pariahs (like Kim, Putin, or Khamenei) reminiscent of that tavern scene from Star Wars.
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But meanwhile, itโs also worth reflecting on the fact that a relative decline in US influence is inevitable as more economies crack the code for growth (a good thing). In fact, the US baked that into our worldโs post-WWII order when it established the kinds of rules and institutions that should protect US interests long after others have risen near the top.
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Rather, the tension here is not so much about whoโs rising, but how: not by taking their seat at the table, but by upending it with (say) invasions of Ukraine. And thatโs what the world is also asking about Trump 2.0: what role does the US now want at this table?
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Sound even smarter:
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President Trump just called again on Russia to accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.
Meanwhile, elsewhereโฆ
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๐บ๐ธย UNITED STATES – Trump and Starmer unveil mini trade pact. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment:ย Itโs interesting to see the US sticking with the 10% tariffs, presumably dangling that carrot for something bigger, like the UK ditching its digital taxes. |
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๐ต๐ฐย PAKISTAN – India and Pakistan still trading fire. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: Yesterday we flagged the US mediation role in defusing past spats. This time around? JD Vance just told Fox News itโs โfundamentally none of our businessโ. |
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๐จ๐ณย CHINA – Exports show unexpected resilience. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: Whether due to transhipment through third countries or deliveries on pre-tariff contracts, itโll give China confidence for US talks in Switzerland this weekend. |
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๐น๐ทย TURKEY – X blocks arrested Istanbul mayorโs account. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: Things have clearly changed since Muskโs big free speech spat with Brazil. Friends in Turkey tell us this feels like a slap in the face after weeks of protests. |
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๐ฌ๐งย UNITED KINGDOMย – British police foil Israel embassy attack. |
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๐ต๐ฆ PANAMA – US security pact to stay despite protests. |
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๐ณ๐ฌ NIGERIA – Abuja pays off $3.4B IMF loan. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: President Tinubu might claim vindication, as it was his polarising decision to free-float the naira that helped put Nigeriaโs finances on a more sustainable track. |
Extra Intrigue
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Three stories we couldnโt shoehorn in this week ๐๏ธ
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Money: Bill Gates has announced heโs winding down his foundation by 2045 (earlier than expected), to front-load and maximise the $75B fundโs impact.
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Lifestyle: WeightWatchers (of early 2000s infomercial fame) has filed for bankruptcy, blaming social media and new treatments like Ozempic.
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Luxury: After experimenting with local discounts, luxury brands are apparently keeping their China prices high in an effort to preserve the air of exclusivity.
From our friends
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Read by decision-makers. Curated for changemakers.
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Foreign Affairs delivers insightful, authoritative analysis from global leaders in policy, business, science, and technology. From Washington to Beijing, it’s the trusted source for analysis that drives real-world decisions. Subscribe to Foreign Affairs today to get an insider look on todayโs most important debates.
Artefact of the day
Credits: Sothebyโs.
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Sothebyโs has paused an auction featuring sacred Buddha relics, to allow for talks between the Indian government and the sellers (descendants of a British colonial explorer who dug up the artefacts from holy burial grounds in 1898). Delhiโs culture ministry wants them repatriated, while the sellers had their eyes on a starting bid of $12.5M. Awkward!
Friday Quiz
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Monday was World Portuguese Language Day!
How many Portuguese speakers are there in the world? |
When was World Portuguese Language Day created? |
Who created World Portuguese Language Day? |