Plus: Artwork of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Why China’s lawful drills rattled a region |
2️⃣ Why Kenyans are googling ‘mountain bongo’ |
3️⃣ Artwork of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Growing up, much of my education was maritime themed. In fact, one of my first school excursions was to a maritime museum, where I learned about swashbuckling pirates through costumed re-enactments (definitely a childhood highlight).
In fact, the sea often features in civil and cultural discourses for just about any maritime nation, including in Australia's national anthem, the broader region's yacht races, and even its WWII naval battles with Imperial Japan.
A stable maritime arena has always been key to antipodean security. So, it’s no surprise then that China’s recent live-fire naval exercises in the Tasman Sea have generated headlines down under. We’ll take a look at that in our top story today.
US votes with Russia on Ukraine resolutions.
The US has voted against a European-drafted UN text condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, then drafted another calling for an end to the war without addressing who’s invading who. It’s all being seen as a stunning break with America’s European allies. Meanwhile, France’s Emmanuel Macron has cautioned Donald Trump that “peace must not mean a surrender of Ukraine”, before UK leader Keir Starmer visits on Thursday.
DRC to halt cobalt exports.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo has announced it’ll pause cobalt exports for four months to stabilise price declines exacerbated by overproduction. The DRC is the world’s top producer of cobalt, a key EV input.
South Africa goes after US tech giants.
The South African antitrust watchdog has penalised Meta and Google for anti-competitive behaviour, insisting Google pay local media outlets $27M a year for up to five years to compensate them for their work. It’ll all further complicate US-South Africa ties.
Bitcoin dips below $90,000.
The cryptocurrency’s value just dropped 7% in a day — that’s now wiped out much of the rally that followed the election of crypto-friendly Donald Trump in November, though Bitcoin is still up more than 60% since September.
TOP STORY
Why China’s lawful naval drills still rattled a region
China has just wrapped up two live-fire naval exercises in the Tasman Sea between two US allies: Australia and New Zealand.
And everyone’s been quick to point out that these drills broke no international law. So then… who cares?
There’ve been a few factors that really make these exercises intriguing.
First, their location in waters off Sydney and then off Tasmania. That’s the farthest south one of China’s naval task groups has ever reached in the region.
Second, their timing: these warships first appeared off Australia’s eastern coast just as the head of US Indo-Pacific Command (Admiral Samuel Paparo) was in Sydney last week, echoing China’s history of tapping the sign when US forces or officials visit allies in the region. Plus, China’s warships reportedly only gave the slimmest of heads-ups before…
Third, their actions: these warships then suddenly performed live-fire drills — ie, firing real ammunition. And they did so just a couple of hours after issuing warnings not to Canberra or Wellington, but to commercial airliners directly, who suddenly had to scramble to reroute their flights.
But again, what’s the problem here?
Legally speaking, there isn’t one according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). And interestingly, while these warships were initially steaming within Australia’s 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ), they exited before opening fire (though many states note UNCLOS doesn’t expressly ban EEZ drills either).
So one last time, all together now… what’s the problem here?
It’s less a problem, and more the message in China’s deployment, which was designed to:
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Demonstrate its willingness and ability to project deep into the South Pacific
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Normalise its military presence throughout the region
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Thereby nudge US allies to keep their own navies home rather than near China
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Test (and cry hypocrisy on) any resulting Australian and Kiwi protests, and
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Test any US response to such a clear flex right near two long-time US allies, particularly as the US reiterates that China (not Russia) is now its top priority.
So how has the US responded? At least in public, there’s been silence. That might be because, as everyone keeps furiously agreeing, there’s been no breach of international law here, so protesting this could undermine the basis for US patrols near China.
And so… how have the Aussies and Kiwis responded? Officially, they’ve just said they would’ve welcomed more of a heads-up to help avoid any aviation disaster. And that’s against the backdrop of earlier complaints around the safety and professionalism of China’s military, raising the risk of a mistake, miscalculation, or worse.
But otherwise, the two antipodean neighbours have also just:
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a) monitored China’s warships
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b) issued carefully worded statements about how they respect “the rights of all states to exercise freedom of navigation and overflight in accordance with international law, just as we expect others to respect Australia’s”
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c) raised their safety concerns with China at the ministerial level, and
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d) cited the incident as evidence the Kiwis need to up their military spending.
But that was still enough for China’s military spokesperson to accuse them both of “hyping up” this whole story.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Casual observers might reflect on the above and think this is just reciprocity at play, right? If you want to steam through China’s ‘hood, don’t complain when China steams back through yours. And sure, that’s partly why the Aussies and Kiwis have been cautious in choosing their words this week.
But there’s a crucial difference here: unlike China, neither Australia nor New Zealand have drawn a vast ‘nine-dash line’ out into the ocean and declared everything within it as their own (ignoring a ruling that random lines on a map have no legal basis).
So that’s why, when the Australians and Kiwis steam through China’s nine dash line covering 90% of the South China Sea, they’re doing so in support of the same international law that they and every other small and medium nation still depend on.
Also worth noting:
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Unlike China and ~169 others, the US isn’t a party to UNCLOS, mostly due to a long-running assessment that the treaty wouldn’t pass the US senate. But every administration since Reagan has treated UNCLOS as customary international law (ie, a law so fundamental and common, it applies regardless).
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Earlier this month, China claimed an Australian military aircraft “deliberately intruded into China's territorial airspace of Xisha Qundao without China's permission.” Xisha Qundao is China’s name for the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea.
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Australia’s defence ministry just released further images of China’s warships, which have now re-entered Australia’s EEZ towards Tasmania.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: An unidentified drone has crashed into Kazakhstan, with both Ukraine and Russia now pointing fingers at the other. The incident comes days after a Ukrainian drone hit a pumping station in southern Russia operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, through which a majority of Kazakh oil is exported.
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🇩🇪 Germany: The leader of Germany’s left-populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, who’s funnily enough named Sahra Wagenknecht, says she’s mulling an appeal against Sunday’s election which saw her miss the 5% parliamentary cut-off by just 0.03%. One of her concerns relates to reports that many German expats (including the ambassador in London) had trouble with mail-in voting.
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🇮🇳 India: The UK and India have resumed talks on a trade and investment deal to boost economic ties that reached $52B in two-way goods and services trade last year. They first kicked off free trade talks in 2022, but put them on ice over various sticking points plus elections in both countries.
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🇨🇦 Canada: Over 200,000 Canadians have signed a parliamentary petition to remove Elon Musk’s citizenship (which he acquired via his mother), due to his “activities that go against the national interest of Canada”. The petition cites his links to Donald Trump, who’s threatened Canada with tariffs and likened its prime minister to a provincial governor.
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🇸🇩 Sudan: The Sudanese army says it’s broken a two-year siege imposed by the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia on a key southern state capital. The army now has momentum, though the RSF just moved to establish a breakaway government in areas it still controls (including Darfur in the west).
FROM OUR FRIENDS
Let’s have a ball at the WunderbarTogether Gala
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
What people around the world googled yesterday
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🇯🇵 Japanese netizens looked up ‘Dan Bongino’, the pro-Trump podcaster and former Secret Service agent who the president just named as deputy director of the FBI.
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🇬🇷 Greek travellers googled ‘τουρισμοσ για ολουσ’ (‘tourism for all’) after Athens offered subsidies encouraging locals to take a trip in the off-season.
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And folks in 🇰🇪 Kenya searched for ‘mountain bongo’ after the US repatriated 17 of the animals to Kenya as part of a repopulation project.
ARTWORK OF THE DAY
Credits: Bruno Art Group
Recognise that piece above? It’s Apollinaire "The Drawers" (1967), one of 200 rare works by Spain’s legendary surrealist Salvador Dalí, now on display in India for the first time. Interestingly, the collection has been curated by Christine Argillet, daughter of Pierre Argillet, the French collector who was also Dalí’s close friend and publisher.
Fun fact: Dalí and India have some real history. The same year Dalí produced the work above, he also designed some quirky ash trays for Air India’s first class passengers. At the artist’s request, the national airline paid him not with money, but with a baby elephant.
DAILY POLL
How should Australia and New Zealand respond to China's drills? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think this German election result means?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🤷 No single leader can turn Germany or Europe around (42%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🚀 He's the right leader for the moment (54%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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🤷 H.C: “The EU's biggest problems are systemic and beyond the reach of even the German chancellor, but this seems like a step in the right direction.”
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🚀 A.W: “Stability is essential at this time — he may be able to forge a path toward peace and prosperity if the internal squabbling stops.”
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🤷 J: “We really need to get rid of this saviour complex that there‘s one person to save us.”
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✍️ S.C: “Having campaigned heavily on curbing illegal immigration, Merz will be under pressure to deliver. This will likely put some of Germany's pressing issues on the back burner – especially the reform and digitalization of Germany's public administration, a foundational factor in many of the country's struggles, including, ironically, illegal immigration.”
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