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IN TODAYβS EDITION
1οΈβ£ What just happened in France |
2οΈβ£ Diplomats on the move |
3οΈβ£ Soup of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Politics can be a fickle game. One minute your fortunes are up, nek minnit youβre out of the game with your political career being compared to the lifespan of a lettuce (spare a thought for Liz Truss).
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The latest victim claimed by the game of politics is Franceβs prime minister. He was only appointed into the role in September, and has now been ousted in a historic no-confidence vote. What went wrong? Another day, another intriguing top story. Letβs dive in.
THE HEADLINES
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South Koreaβs defence minister resigns, police open investigation.Β
Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun has resigned over his role in President Yoonβs failed martial law decree earlier this week. The decree was reportedly Kimβs idea. Heβs now been replaced by South Koreaβs ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Choi Byung-hyuk (a former general). Meanwhile, police have opened an investigation into President Yoon for alleged “insurrection“. The opposition could lead a vote to impeach President Yoon as early as tomorrow (Friday), but Yoonβs own party is now vowing to oppose such a move.
Trump selects Peter Navarro as senior economic advisor.
Navarro, an economist and senior advisor during Trump 1.0, will now be Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing under Trump 2.0. He recently served four months in prison for refusing to testify before a congressional investigation into January 6th. Itβs unclear how his new gig will interact with Trumpβs US Trade Representative β Trumpβs nominee for that role is trade lawyer and former first-term aide, Jamieson Greer.
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US and Russian military chiefs speak.
The US chair of the joint chiefs (Brown) has spoken with his Russian counterpart (Gerasimov) for the first time in over a year β itβs unclear what exactly they discussed, though it was likely an attempt to maintain dialogue as tensions spike. Meanwhile, there are reports Russia is (again) gathering forces close to Kherson in hopes of gaining a foothold over the key Dnipro River before Trump takes office.
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Bitcoin passes $100,000.
Bitcoin has hit a new record, hours after Donald Trump announced he would appoint the crypto-friendly Paul Atkins to lead a key regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Atkins is a former SEC commissioner.
ICC prosecutor seeks arrest warrant for Myanmar military leader.
Karim Khan is looking to bring Myanmarβs military junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, before the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity perpetrated against the Rohingya minority.
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Health insurance CEO assassinated in Manhattan.
A masked assailant has shot and killed UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson outside his companyβs investor conference in New York. The shooter remains at large and thereβs no official word on a motive, though there are reports it may have been related to grievances over health coverage.
TOP STORY
Why the French government just collapsed

Lawmakers have toppled Michel Barnierβs government.
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Thought youβd get a break from Western political turmoil? Think again!Β
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As we foreshadowed earlier this week, 331 of Franceβs 577 legislators cast ballots overnight (Wednesday) to oust the government of President Macronβs hand-picked prime minister, Michel Barnier.
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The last time something like this happened in France? All the way back in 1962, when a government collapsed amid the fallout from the Algerian War of Independence.Β
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But Franceβs latest political woes didnβt start this week.Β
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Quick recap: Franceβs populist-right National Assembly party (think Marine Le Pen) delivered a real beating to President Macronβs centrists at the EUβs parliamentary elections in June, so Macron then shocked everyone by calling his own snap parliamentaryΒ elections β he was basically betting voters wouldnβt pull that stunt again closer to home.
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And was he right? Yes and no. Voters didnβt put the National Assembly in power, but they didnβt put his own centrists back in power either. In fact, they put nobody in power, delivering an almost three-way tie between the left (182), centre (168), and right (143).
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So Macron (whose own term runs until 2027) then had to figure out who could cobble the numbers together to form a new government. He went with centre-right former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, achieving the difficult balance of equally irking everyone just enough to keep the show on the road. But the left (who won the most seats and so wanted the top job) were particularly peeved, and rejected Barnier from the outset.
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The result? Barnierβs only hope was the continued support of the right, and thatβs what changed this week: Le Pen finally pulled her support, and Barnierβs government collapsed 90 days after he formed it. For those playing at home, thatβs a crisp 8.1 Scaramuccis, and the shortest-lived government in Franceβs modern history.
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Why did Le Pen pull her support?
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Barnier is an old-school fiscal hawk and Le Pen is an old-school populist: so while Barnier was desperate to raise taxes and cut spending to get Franceβs yawning deficits back on a more sustainable track, Le Pen demanded that Barnier (for example) drop a proposed tax hike on electricity, and continue reimbursements for certain types of drugs.Β
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Barnier kept playing ball, making $10.5B or so in concessions, until he drew the line at Le Penβs last costly demand: keeping pensions in line with inflation. So she withdrew her partyβs support, describing Barnierβs budget as βdangerous, unfair, and punitiveβ.
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So, whatβs next?Β
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Macron now has to find a new prime minister who might cobble together the numbers to survive, but thatβs not easy when you remember Garnierβs government was not only Franceβs shortest-ever, but also only emerged after Franceβs longest-ever negotiations.
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So you might think okay, Macron should just call fresh parliamentary elections again to let the people decide, right? But Franceβs constitution only lets the president pull that stunt once a year, so heβs gotta wait until next summer.
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Alternatively, fresh elections could happen if Macron resigns, something heβs already ruled out – but thereβs a growing list of lawmakers (including Le Pen) now calling on him to go.
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Meanwhile, Macron himself has just returned from a state visit to Saudi Arabia and will deliver a national address tonight (Thursday), though he doesnβt have many options:
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a) Find another centrist, but theyβll just bump up against Le Pen again
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b) Hand the reins to his rivals on the left or right, who see the world very differently, or
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c) Resign and trigger elections, which Le Pen could then win anyway.
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Word is Macron wants to go with option a) again, with a new PM in place before the Notre Dame Cathedralβs reopening ceremony on Saturday.
INTRIGUEβS TAKE
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So what does all this palace intrigue mean for the rest of us?
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First, thereβs a risk this political crisis could metastasise into a broader financial one. Franceβs projected deficit of 6.1% of GDP has already spooked investors, and startled the EU (which now limits deficits to 3% of GDP).
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But second, a national crisis in France can quickly evolve into a regional one β with each day that Europeβs key powers (France and Germany) are both mired in domestic turmoil, the chances of them driving solutions to Europeβs challenges get slimmer.
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Also worth noting:Β
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Barnier is scheduled to visit ElysΓ©e Palace this morning (Thursday) at 10am local time to formally present his government’s resignation. While he could stay on in a caretaker role, itβll be up to his successor to solve the budget crisis.
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If Franceβs lawmakers canβt approve a new budget for 2025, the old budget basically gets repeated as an emergency measure β this averts a US-style government shutdown, but allows Franceβs financial woes to worsen.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREβ¦

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π§π©Β Bangladesh: Protestors have attempted to breach two Bangladeshi consulates in neighbouring India this week after Bangladeshi authorities arrested a Hindu monk. Hindu-majority India has expressed concern about the treatment of Hindus under Bangladeshβs interim government.Β
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π³π΄Β Norway: Norwayβs $1.8T sovereign wealth fund (the worldβs largest) has decided to sell its stake in Israeli telecom group, Bezeq. The fundβs ethics watchdog said Bezeq was βhelping to facilitate the maintenance and expansionβ of unlawful Israeli settlements in the West BankΒ by providing telecom services.Β
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π¦πΊΒ Australia: Sydney-based defence company DroneShield has accepted an $8.2M repeat order from an unspecified European military, expecting to deliver its counter-drone systems in the next three months. DroneShieldβs stock has more than doubled over the past year as demand for counter-drone tech grows.
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π²π½Β Mexico: Starting from next year, cruise ships will have to fork over $42 per passenger daily while docking in Mexico, according to new legislation passed by the senate this week. The tourism industry has criticised the move, arguing Mexico could now lose business to other Caribbean ports.
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π³πͺΒ Niger: The ruling junta in Niger has seized control of a majority French state-owned uranium mine thatβs developing one of the worldβs largest deposits. The junta has long pushed for a greater share of mining profits, and thereβs speculation that with France sidelined, Russian or Turkish firms could be invited to take the project forward instead.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Diplomats on the move βοΈ
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In the Middle East, Mongolian leader Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai has now landed in Bahrain after attending a UN meeting on desertification in Saudi Arabia.Β
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In Russia,Β the Malaysian and Belarussian ambassadors met this week to discuss organising a business summit to drive more trade between Minsk and Kuala Lumpur.
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In the Americas, Donald Trump has named Adam Boehler (former chief of the US International Development Finance Corporation) as his next special presidential envoy for hostage affairs.
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And in Central Asia,Β after 33 years of negotiations, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan say theyβve come to an agreement over their shared border after their respective national security chiefs met in Batken.
FROM OUR FRIENDS
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SOUP OF THE DAY

Credits: Tourism Authority of Thailand, via Bangkok Post
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UNESCO has added the famous Tom Yum Kung prawn soup to its list of Thailandβs intangible cultural heritage. The spicy, citrusy dish joins an elite club that already includes Thai massage, the Khon Mask dance, and the splashing Songkran Festival. So, wanna try the soup? The Thai government actually runs a program to guarantee the authenticity of thousands of Thai restaurants all around the world β find one near you.
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Extra fun fact: UNESCO also added Japanβs sake brewing to its list.
DAILY POLL
What do you think Macron should do next? |
Yesterdayβs poll: How would you characterise Yoon’s martial law gambit?
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π©π©π©π©π©π©Β πͺ A failed self-coup (56%)
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π¨π¨π¨π¨β¬οΈβ¬οΈ π¨ A misguided attempt to impose order (40%)
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β¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈ βοΈ Other (write in!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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πͺ R.C: βA failed self-coup, but with more desperation than ambition or strategic foresight.β
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π¨Β J.S: βA failed attempt to take control via a ‘wake up call’ β instead it’ll lead to the end of his presidency which will be remembered for handbags and this martial law order.β
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βοΈ H.C.: βNone of this happens without hubrisβ¦ an echo chamber of bad advice, and a lack of strategic chops.β
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