🌍 Why the world is yelling about elections in Romania

IN TODAY’S EDITION

Hi Intriguer. One of the highlights of my travels was attending this gathering in Georgia (the country, not the state). The gathering can only be described as a political bootcamp of sorts for participants from fledgling democracies around the so-called ‘Black Sea rim’ region.

It was honestly a super informative crash course, spanning all sorts of topics ranging from fighting disinformation in the age of AI, to understanding basic legal principles of democracy like the separation of powers, and how to engage in strategic policy planning for one’s country.

My key takeaways? Firstly, that all politicians from democracies around the world really ought to partake in some version of this bootcamp. Secondly, that the Romanian participants were some of the most impressive and innovative folks I’ve ever met. We dive into some of what’s been happening in Romania’s politics in today’s top story.

PS – Our very own Kristen is in Houston for CERAWeek if you’re in town and want to connect!

THE HEADLINES

US stocks plunge amid tariff turmoil.
The S&P500 has now lost $4T in value since its February peak, while Tesla stocks alone closed 15% down on Monday — the slump, plus further drops in Bitcoin below $80k, come as recession fears and uncertainty around Trump’s economic agenda fan a selloff.

Moscow hit by massive drone counter-attack.
Ukraine has counter-attacked with its biggest drone strike on Moscow and its surrounds to date, using as many as 300 drones. The counter-attack came just hours before Saudi-hosted peace talks kicked off with delegations from Ukraine and the US.

Kurds sign deal to integrate into Syria.
The US-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have signed an agreement with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa to integrate all SDF military and civilian institutions into the Syrian state. It’s a major step towards uniting Syria after years of civil war, just days after violence erupted across Syrian coastal cities.

Former Philippines president arrested. 
Manila police just arrested Rodrigo Duterte on an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant over alleged crimes against humanity during his deadly war on drugs. The current president (Marcos Jr) had initially refused to cooperate with the ICC, but changed his tune as his ties with the Duterte family soured. It’s unclear whether Marcos will now extradite Duterte to stand trial in The Hague.

Tanker and cargo ship collide off UK coast.
Two vessels continue to burn off the eastern UK coast after a cargo ship hit an oil tanker carrying jet fuel, in one of the country’s worst recent maritime incidents. All but one crewmember have been accounted for.

TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

While you ponder whether Romania’s authorities are defending democracy or destroying it, here are three things worth keeping in mind:

• First, this isn’t new: just in October, a court banned another Russia-friendly populist-right candidate (Diana Iovanovici Sosoaca), saying her statements systematically undermined Romania’s constitution and Euro-NATO alignment.

• Second, this isn’t happening in a vacuum: folks in Romania are frustrated at the scandal-plagued major parties and the quality of government services.

• And third, this isn’t just a Romania thing: electoral authorities everywhere are grappling with similar toxic doubts around the democratic implications of tech, campaign finance, and hybrid warfare.

That all makes for fertile ground for these kinds of constitutional crises. Then there’s the question of how democracies ought to respond, with another three thoughts:

• First, Georgescu seems to have benefited from an epic Streisand Effect here — the state’s complaint just shifted things from a debate on Georgescu’s niche platform, to a referendum on over-reach by an unpopular state.

• Second, this whole ordeal reflects a broader shift away from old-school fears of electoral fraud to today’s greyer areas of tech-enabled narrative-shaping, placing much more pressure on official credibility in adjudicating calls.

• And third, while Russia denies any role, it’s the very existence of this debate right now (more than any particular side within it) that risks eroding public faith in democracy, to the benefit of hostile authoritarians everywhere.

Anyway, take some solace that Romania’s people feel just as conflicted as you do: 46% say the Georgescu ban is unjustified, while 41% describe it as necessary.  

Also worth noting:

• VP Vance earlier criticised the intelligence against Georgescu as “flimsy”.

• Prosecutors have already brought six criminal charges against Georgescu, including on leading a fascist group and lying about his campaign financing.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇯🇵 Japan: Trade minister Yoji Muto has travelled to the US in a last-ditch attempt to score a tariff exemption for Japan. Tokyo is concerned about the looming 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, and a possible levy on auto imports that Donald Trump threatened back in February.  

2. 🇸🇪 Sweden: Stockholm’s arms exports reached a record high of nearly $3B last year, up 63% over 12 months as a spooked world hunkers down. Sweden’s top buyers include the UAE, the US, and Brazil.

3. 🇦🇺 Australia: Russia has warned of “grave consequences” if Australia deploys troops in Ukraine as part of any peacekeeping mission. The statement emerged after Australia’s prime minister last week declined to rule out joining the UK-led “coalition of the willing” on Ukraine.

4. 🇸🇷 Suriname: States across the Americas have elected Suriname’s foreign minister (Albert Ramdin) as the next head of the Organization of American States (OAS). In an initial speech to the bloc’s assembly in DC, he’s urged greater regional unity, dialogue, and sustainable development. 

5. 🇮🇶 Iraq: The US has annulled a waiver for Iraq to import Iranian electricity, as part of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Tehran. A spokesperson from Iraq’s electricity ministry says the move will impact 30% of the country’s power needs, so it’s looking for alternatives. 

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Our commodities corner is back

• Gas: Notwithstanding the recent bumps in transatlantic ties, the EU’s top energy official has told us the bloc won’t (can’t?) stop buying US LNG any time soon.

• Oil: Russia looks set to resume oil and gas operations in Iraqi Kurdistan as it seeks to make up lost influence in Europe and Syria.

• Coal: India’s thermal coal imports declined for the sixth straight month in February, as local manufacturing activity slows down.

• Coffee: Low rainfall in Brazil has again pushed up coffee prices, which already soared over the past year.

THINGAMAJIG OF THE DAY

Tired of your office rival outdoing you with their expensive new watch timepiece? Well, Japan has come up with the ultimate one-up: Shimadzu, a precision instruments maker, just dropped its strontium optical lattice clock.  

Sure, it’s the size of a small refrigerator and costs $3.3M, but it’s 100 times more accurate than the traditional caesium atomic clocks used to define seconds, and we’re guessing a million times more accurate than Karen’s Rolex.

DAILY POLL

Yesterday’s poll: What do you think Syria’s weekend of violence means?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📈 It’s a scar on the way to a brighter future (15%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 📉 It all portends darker days ahead (82%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• 📉 S.A.M: “They don’t have a state strong enough to be the monopoly for violence. Until this changes, violence will continue.”

• 📈 R.S: “There needs to be more listening and peaceful debate, and less reactionary anger.”

• ✍️ M.P: “No one can reliably guess what will happen in Syria, there’s too many players, but I think if things turn to ‘dark days’ it’s important to remember it will be because of a lack of support from outside forces with their own geopolitical objections (or proxy wars for the same reason), not due to some inevitability people seem inclined to believe about the Middle East.”