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Today’s briefing: |
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Good morning Intriguer. I remember once being at a dinner party with a bunch of diplomats and discussing a breezy dinner party conversation topic like, you know, the state of various “intractable” conflicts around the world.
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One of the diplos remarked that they were most impressed with the way the UK, Northern Ireland, and Ireland were able to agree to the Belfast Agreement (aka Good Friday Accords). Another diplo expressed optimism about the trajectory of the Middle East Peace Process.
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But the table all agreed there was one conflict “too complicated” to discuss, and that was the Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan. We’ll tackle the latest there in our top story today.
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PS – ¿Hablas español? ¡Check out our weekly edition in Spanish!
Stat of the day
Nuclear
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Everyone from diplomats (Russians included) to ex-diplomats (Intrigue included), plus the world’s top UN watchdog, random boffins, and energy entrepreneurs, all crammed into a DC nuclear conference this week.
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And while panels tackled hot topics like Iran, the watercooler chatter focused on nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan. In fact, the event host (Carnegie’s president) even flagged this as a bigger risk than any ‘great power’ nuclear clash.
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So when Pakistan-based jihadis stormed a tourist resort in Indian-controlled Kashmir on Tuesday, Carnegie’s nuclear crowd grew nervous.
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Why?
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In shooting scores of tourists dead, this offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) has lit a match in an area that’s long been highly combustible.
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Kashmir has been split in two since the 1947 partition of British India: one part still controlled by Pakistan, the other by India, and all parts still claimed by both. These days, it’s a lightning rod for all the reasons these two neighbours don’t get along, including:
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History, like the millions violently displaced during partition
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Faith, broadly along the fault lines of Hinduism (India) and Islam (Pakistan)
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Politics, including rivalry between India’s secular (if Hindu-dominated) democracy and Pakistan’s Islamic republic, all feeding into…
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Competition for regional influence, mutual allegations of backing hostile separatists, not to mention some very hostile media narratives.
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Against all that (plus tensions with China), India tested its first nuke in 1974, nudging Pakistan to follow suit (with China’s help) in 1998.
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But after years of periodic deadly attacks, things seemed relatively quiet as we entered 2025, with Delhi hinting at a coming “permanent peace” and encouraging more tourism.
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But India’s worst terrorist attack in years has now upended everything, with Delhi already:
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Closing the Wagah border crossing
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Suspending a major water-sharing treaty
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Expelling Pakistani diplomats and military advisers
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Cancelling vast numbers of Pakistani visas, and
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Blaming Pakistan’s support for “cross-border terrorism” (a claim Islamabad denies).
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And PM Modi has now cut short his Saudi trip to instead convene his national security council, pledging “punishment beyond imagination” for those responsible.
Intrigue’s Take
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So what next? An Indian strike on LeT targets in Pakistan feels inevitable for three reasons:
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First, precedent: the last time something of this magnitude happened (2019), Modi sent jets into Pakistani airspace. There’s also evidence (which Delhi denies) that he’s gone full Munich, with 20 or so curious targeted assassinations
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Second, personnel: some of Modi’s closest allies, like his top security advisor Ajit Doval and his home affairs minister Amit Shah, are known hawks on this stuff — Doval even spent years undercover in Kashmir
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And third, politics: against the febrile climate we’ve outlined above, Modi’s own political brand of Hindu nationalism really rests on a sharp response here.
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So the question becomes how Pakistan might respond, and many will hope we see a repeat of Pakistan’s shrug after Indian airstrikes in 2016 and 2019, basically denying they even happened. Hits on remote LeT bases are tough to verify either way, conveniently giving both sides scope to talk big at home while de-escalating abroad.
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But also, remember that the Pakistan of 2025 isn’t the Pakistan of 2019 — it’s got a weaker coalition government, a worsening economic outlook, and it faces escalating ethnic insurgencies. And that all raises the risk of a miscalculation.
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Sound even smarter:
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India’s spooks are briefing local outlets that the attack mastermind was LeT’s Saifullah Kasuri, a top figure in the LeT offshoot that’s claimed responsibility.
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
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🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Bessent denies plans to ease China tariffs. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: Battered markets took Bessent’s words as a signal Trump is open to a quick deal, and rose on the news — but Beijing has just issued a statement rejecting any notion that talks have even started. And… back down go the markets. |
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🇺🇦 UKRAINE — Latest Russian attacks kill nine. |
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🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA — Economy contracts amid political crisis. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: Seoul will be hoping its talks with the US (today) and impending elections (called for June 3) might offer a path back out. And speaking of elections… |
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🇫🇷 FRANCE: Will Macron call early elections? p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: Trump 2.0 has put wind in the political sails of several incumbents abroad as voters put a premium on stability — Macron might be hoping for a similar bump. |
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🇵🇭 PHILIPPINES: Joint US-Philippines drills test new scenarios. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: These drills are annual, though have been getting bigger — the sweet spot for any alliance in a tense region is deterrence without destabilisation. |
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🇯🇵 JAPAN: High prices drive locals to buy Korean rice. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: While Korea makes surprise rice sales to Japan, local outlets are reporting Beijing is pressuring Seoul not to ship any products containing China’s rare earths to US defence firms (think transformers, batteries, displays etc). Both stories highlight our world’s cross-border dependencies, including with historic rivals. |
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🇵🇾 PARAGUAY: Asunción moves to diversify energy supply. |
Extra Intrigue
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Meanwhile, in other worlds…
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Tech: New data suggests Big Tech is outsourcing jobs to Africa then covering its tracks.
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Space: Researchers have found a lone black hole wandering through the Sagittarius constellation — the first without a characteristic orbiting star.
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Sports: Retired tennis superstar Andre Agassi will make his debut as a pickleball pro next week.
From our friends
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Explore Foreign Affairs Today: Expert essays on today’s most pressing geopolitical debates curated by the editors of Foreign Affairs. Delivered directly to your inbox every weekday. Sign up for free.
Race against the machine
Credits: Fred Dufour / NBC News.
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Over 20 humanoid robots have competed against actual humans in a Beijing half-marathon for the first time. The fastest robot (with a time of 2 hr, 40 min, 42 sec) crossed the finish line just within the cut-off to get a human participation award.
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As for the rest? Only six managed to finish at all due to battery problems, overheating, mechanical difficulties, and our favourite: a robot’s head fell off mid-race.
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Still, they’ll get better, and it’s another milestone in China’s rapid robotics advancement.
Today’s poll
Where do you see the most risk of nuclear conflict? |
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Yesterday’s Poll: Do you see a real risk of the Fed losing its independence?
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👉 Yes, President Trump has been clear (41%)
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🥱 No, it’s all just posturing (57%)
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✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
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Your comments:
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🥱 I.N: “The Fed losing its independence would tank the markets even more, and Trump knows this.”
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👉 R.O: “Trump values loyalty above all else, and Powell has not been (in Trump’s eyes) loyal.”
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✍️ R.D: “Trump will ultimately grin and bear the current Fed chief until his contract terminates in 2026. Then he’ll replace him with a rump-kisser.”