🌍 Yellen’s three key messages to Europe

IN TODAY’S EDITION

Hi Intriguer. Words often carry more weight as things get more tense. Three interesting examples have grabbed my attention this week.

The first was Taiwan’s presidential inauguration on Monday, which included some new flourishes, like referring to “China” instead of “the Beijing authorities”. Some believe that, by choosing words that imply the existence of two separate countries, President Lai was asserting Taiwan’s independence.

The second example is that Seoul is now banning North Korea’s amusing Friendly Father propaganda tune, which extols the virtues of Kim Jong Un. The song went viral (ironically I presume), but I guess its banging chorus is less funny when Kim has 6,000 artillery systems pointed at you.

And the third example is actually today’s lead story: the latest speech by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, delivering some interesting messages to Europe from a lecture theatre in Frankfurt.

Norway, Spain, and Ireland to recognise Palestine.
The trio’s leaders have just announced they’ll formally recognise the State of Palestine on 28 May, describing it as a step towards a two-state solution. Some 140 UN members already recognise the State of Palestine, while 50 or so don’t, saying the state should come through direct negotiations between the two sides. Around 30 countries don’t recognise Israel. Meanwhile, the UN says it’s halted food distribution in Rafah over security concerns and shortages.

US to impose sanctions on ICC officials?
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has signalled the Biden Administration is open to working with Congress to “find an appropriate response” – including possible sanctions – after the International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor requested arrest warrants for top Israeli (and Hamas) officials this week. The Trump administration imposed sanctions on the ICC in 2020 when the court began investigating possible US war crimes in Afghanistan.

Former Royal Marine accused of spying for Hong Kong found dead. 
UK police are investigating the unexplained death in a park of a former Royal Marine. British authorities had accused him earlier this month of assisting Hong Kong’s intelligence services.

Macron flies to New Caledonia amid riots.
French President Emmanuel Macron and several top ministers are on their way to France’s Pacific overseas territory of New Caledonia, in an attempt to negotiate an end to the ongoing unrest there. Neighbouring Australia and New Zealand have begun evacuating their citizens from the archipelago.

TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

The timing of Yellen’s speech was interesting, though when is it not?

• First, Yellen’s speech came just hours after European President von der Leyen hinted that the EU will soon slap tariffs on China’s EVs.

• Second, Yellen’s speech came just days after Biden announced new US tariffs – which Yellen defended as “strategic and targeted” – on China’s EVs and other goods.

• Third, her speech came just weeks after President Xi visited France for some frank discussions on Ukraine and trade.

• And fourth, it came just a month after Xi hosted German Chancellor Scholz in China for a dialogue that was a little more sympathetic.

So… developments between the West and China are coming thick and fast right now, but (or maybe therefore?) the West’s messaging is a mess.

And that’s what’s driving the ‘unity’ theme in Yellen’s speech: “joint” appears 12 times; “collective” eight times; “together” another four. And so on. But Europeans are weighing that US message of unity against what else they see: the US is still making its own moves, and it faces an election in November.

And that’s what’s driving the EU’s thinking around a possible ‘third way’, independent of China and the US.

But as the US blocks more of China’s cheap goods, there’s only one other market big enough to absorb them: the EU. And that rerouting of even more goods from China to the EU, rather than any US speech in Frankfurt, might be what eventually forces the EU’s hand.

Also worth noting:

• The leaders of Germany and Sweden have voiced scepticism towards the latest US tariffs on China. Sweden’s prime minister said during a joint press conference last week that imposing tariffs is generally “not a good idea for major exporters like Germany and Sweden”.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇦🇫 Afghanistan: The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for a gun attack that killed three Spanish tourists and one Afghan local in the city of Bamiyan, which is home to a Unesco world heritage site. Taliban authorities say they’ve arrested four men in connection with the attack. 

2. 🇬🇷 Greece: A court has thrown out a case against nine Egyptian men charged with last June’s major Mediterranean migrant shipwreck, which saw over 600 people lost at sea. The court found that the boat sank in international waters and therefore wasn’t under its jurisdiction.

3. 🇻🇳 Vietnam: Hanoi has asked Apple’s Taiwan-based manufacturer Foxconn to cut 30% of its power consumption this summer to avoid a repeat of last year’s blackouts that shaved 0.3% off Vietnam’s GDP. As more multinationals seek to diversify away from China, Vietnam has been encouraging them to set up manufacturing plants on its own turf.

4. 🇦🇷 Argentina: Spain has now formally withdrawn its ambassador from Argentina as a row between the two countries escalates. Madrid first recalled its top diplomat after Argentinian President Milei, addressing an opposition rally in Madrid, suggested the Spanish PM’s wife was corrupt.

5. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: The Saudi national airline has placed an order for over 100 new Airbus jets as it seeks to achieve its 2019 goal of attracting over 150 million visitors by 2030. But delivery might take a while, as Airbus already has a backlog of 8,600 orders to fill.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Our co-founder Helen is at the Doha Security Forum this week. Here’s what she’s overheard amid the canapes and keynotes:

• Dr Elisabeth Kendall, from the University of Cambridge, said the Houthis are trying to buck Iranian restraint and might look to expand the conflict in the Red Sea.

• Singapore’s legendary diplomat Bilahari Kausikan just spoke. Helen’s tl:dr? In this complicated world of ours, countries will pursue "omnidirectional policies" according to their interests, positions, and capabilities.

• And finally, falconry is big in Qatar, with several of the huge birds just casually walking around the conference, in amongst the Taliban officials and other assorted characters.

RANKING OF THE DAY

Ranking cities is a little like ranking your children: perfectly fine, right? So let’s dig in.

Despite what many columnists believed at the height of the pandemic, cities are still so hot right now. The world’s 1,000 largest cities account for 60% of global GDP and are home to almost a third of the world’s people.

If that makes you want to move to one, here are some recommendations from the new Oxford Economics Global Cities Index: 

• Best for economic power: New York, US

• Best for human capital: London, UK

• Best for quality of life: Grenoble, France

• Best for its natural environment: Suva, Fiji

• Best for governance: Auckland, New Zealand

DAILY POLL

Yesterday’s poll: If confirmed, what impact do you think the ICC arrest warrants against Israeli and Hamas leaders will have?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🧲 They'll increase pressure to release hostages / end the war (14%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🤔 They'll have no impact at all (60%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⏱️ They might prolong the conflict (17%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (9%)

Your two cents:

• 🤔 B.P: “We have seen such warrants before, to little effect. It will be interesting to observe, whether the Israeli leaders will have the guts to travel to any ICC signatory state, or will they be confined to the coast of sunny Florida. And it is unlikely that Hamas leaders have many travel plans.”

• 🧲 C.H: “One of the main problems with this conflict is that people are holding either one side or the other accountable while ignoring the opposite side’s crimes. By holding both sides accountable, it puts pressure on the whole world to step in and stop this conflict.”

• ⏱️ P.S: “Those under threat of arrest will have little to lose by fighting to the bitter end.”

• ✍️ S.L: “They'll increase pressures on Israel and Hamas' allies to toe the line or take more neutral stances, which will cause both sides to lose support from some allies while strengthening the support of others, increasing global divisions.”