Plus: Passport of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Europe’s Ukraine crossroads |
2️⃣ Diplomats on the move |
3️⃣ Passport of the day |
Hi Intriguer. With all that’s going on right now, it’s been pretty tempting to just tap out of the news altogether.
While I can’t actually be doing that, I have allowed myself one guilty indulgence to get through the week. And that, dear Intriguer, is to immerse myself in the glorious return of The White Lotus, this time set in Thailand.
A couple of early thoughts from the series return: 1) the theme song for the third season is rubbish and pales in comparison to its predecessor, which was a banger at da clerbs; and 2) Thailand’s luxury tourism industry better be ready for the ‘White Lotus effect’.
Anyway, with that geopolitical palate cleanser, let’s dive into today’s top story on Europe’s Ukraine crossroads.
US defence chief flags major cuts.
Pete Hegseth has reportedly ordered the US military to prepare plans for 8% budget cuts each year over the next five years, with an exception for border security. His memo calls for a shift to a wartime tempo, offset by cuts to low-impact spending.
Hamas returns bodies of Bibas family.
Hamas has now returned what it says are the bodies of Shiri (32), Ariel (4), and Kfir Bibas (9 months when abducted), plus Oded Lifshitz (84), all kidnapped from their homes in southern Israel on October 7 2023. Argentina’s leader Javier Milei has announced a day of mourning for the Bibas brothers, who had dual Israeli-Argentine citizenship.
Mercedes warns of “significantly lower” profits.
The automaker has just reported a 28% drop in net profits last year, citing weak EV sales plus a price war in China. Meanwhile mining giant Anglo American has again written-down the value of its De Beers diamond business, which it’s struggling to offload after fending off a takeover bid by rival BHP.
South Korea’s Yoon attends first criminal hearing.
The country’s impeached president, Yoon Suk Yeol, has appeared in a Seoul court for his first hearing on insurrection charges after his short-lived attempt at martial law in December. The charges are unprecedented for a sitting president, and Yoon could face years in prison if he’s found guilty. His next criminal hearing is scheduled for March 24.
US to cut China-based diplomats?
The South China Morning Post is reporting that the Trump administration is moving to cut the US diplomatic footprint in China by up to 10% as part of a broader overhaul of the State Department.
TOGETHER WITH MODE MOBILE
Data is the New Oil and Early Movers are Cashing In
Palantir just rocketed to $250 billion by helping companies extract value from user data.
The big data gold rush is here, but the company that stands to profit the most may not be Palantir…
-
A new disruption to smartphones gives users a share in the data profits, already facilitating +$325M in earnings and generating +$60M in revenue.
-
With 32,481% revenue growth, this company is gearing up for a possible Nasdaq listing (stock ticker: $MODE), and pre-IPO shares are available at only $0.26/share.
It’s a $1 trillion industry, and their disruptive EarnPhone is now being distributed by Walmart and Best Buy.
They have received over 90% of their $20M investment goal for February 20th.
TOP STORY
Europe’s Ukraine crossroads
Europe has been left in disarray by the rapid US-Russia developments.
European leaders (plus Canada) held a second emergency summit yesterday (Wednesday) as the continent grapples with a rapidly shifting security outlook. Why?
The catalyst is not so much any change in Russia’s ongoing invasion of a European country (Ukraine) — in fact, any Russian momentum has slowed this month. Rather, it’s a change in the way the US approaches the world, driven by a change in US president:
-
From a historical perspective, Trump is now signalling the winding-back of a 75-year old defensive alliance, whether because the US can’t (gotta focus on China) or won’t (divergence in values) prioritise European security much longer, and
-
From an immediate perspective, Trump is now calling Ukraine’s Zelensky a dictator and blaming him for Putin’s decision to send tanks over the border, missiles into Ukrainian cities, and nuclear threats out at the broader West.
And even if that reflects Trump’s campaign and beyond, this US 180° has caused whiplash.
So where does it leave Europe?
From an economic perspective, Europe is a (beleaguered) giant: ten times the GDP of Russia, which in turn has a smaller economy than (say) Italy, Canada, and even Texas.
And that’s played out in Europe’s support for Ukraine, totalling $137.9B since Russia’s invasion, versus $119.1B from the US. It’s a similar story if you zoom into security assistance, with Europe contributing $65B and the US $67B (spent mostly within the US).
But given the stakes for Europe (not protected by a “big, beautiful ocean”), some argue its biggest economies can and should do more. Sure, Europe’s main engine (Germany) is also its top contributor to Ukraine, but it’s still totalling 0.5% of GDP, and that figure gets even smaller as you swing through Paris, Rome, and Madrid. It’s only nearer Russia’s border (Northern Europe, the Baltics, and Poland) where support for Ukraine clears 1%.
Then from a military deployment perspective, the picture just gets murkier — the UK and France have flagged deploying peacekeeping troops in Ukraine to deter more Russian aggression. But credible estimates suggest you’d need 100,000 troops to deter another Russian invasion, and even before you get into the how, Russia has already rejected the idea as “unacceptable”, and nobody else is raising their hand.
Why? It’s partly because deploying troops to Ukraine weakens Europe’s deterrence elsewhere, just as the US is flagging its own draw-down. And that also leaves Europe in a bind, with its troops in Europe backed by a NATO pledge, while its troops in Ukraine are not. That’s a gap that any competent adversary could exploit to weaken an alliance.
But both these economic and military questions are really downstream of something bigger: political will to continue backing Ukraine. Sure, those bordering Russia — or with a history of Russian occupation — view Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine as existential; Putin could use his same justifications (history, Russian-speakers, security) to hit them next.
Others, like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán (a perennial blocker of EU aid), argue “the war in Ukraine could become easily an Afghanistan for the EU”. And even among those with less cushy Moscow ties, Russia is still sometimes seen as a more distant threat, particularly amid the more immediate political and economic crises back home.
So what’s next?
Europe’s second emergency summit didn’t deliver any obvious answers overnight, but it did nudge a breakthrough: Mike Waltz (Trump’s national security advisor) just announced France’s Macron and the UK’s Starmer are invited to talks at the White House next week.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Ultimately, history might conclude that firmer and quicker support from Europe (and Biden) could’ve enabled Ukraine to fend off Russia’s invasion completely, rather than enabling Putin to hang on long enough for a new US president to make concessions.
But zooming out further, there’s another possible ripple effect from what’s now happening between the US and Europe — an increased risk of nuclear proliferation.
Traditionally, there’s been no need or scope for US allies to pursue nuclear weapons, because allies could just rely on US security pledges instead. But as those US pledges decline in value (perceived or actual), capitals will rethink their approach to nukes. You’d be surprised how quickly taboos can evaporate when folks feel a threat is existential.
Also worth noting:
-
The EU just approved its 16th round of sanctions against Russia.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
-
🇮🇳 India: Court filings suggest the US Securities and Exchange Commission has requested India’s help in its investigation into the billionaire Adani Group founder Gautam Adani, a close ally of Prime Minister Modi. US authorities indicted Adani and his nephew on an alleged $265M securities fraud and bribery scheme in November (they deny the allegations).
-
🇷🇺 Russia: Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has announced plans to open seven new embassies in Africa including in The Gambia, Liberia, Comoros, Niger, Sierra Leone, Togo, and South Sudan. Moscow has expanded its footprint in Africa amid international isolation and as resource competition heats up.
-
🇮🇩 Indonesia: A top presidential advisor has revealed that Indonesia is working on its own Bahasa-language version of China’s DeepSeek AI chatbot, due for presentation to President Prabowo Subianto next month. The former minister argues that “this sort of digital transformation is set to improve Indonesia’s efficiency”.
-
🇲🇽 Mexico: China-based tech giant Alibaba has opened its first data centre in Mexico as part of a broader global expansion. The company dominates the cloud market back in its home market, but trails US rivals like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google abroad.
-
🇪🇬 Egypt: The state-run Al-Ahram newspaper has provided further details on Egypt’s regional plan to rebuild Gaza without displacing Palestinians, now set for review at an Arab summit postponed to March 4th. The plan apparently includes “secure areas” to house residents within Gaza while Egyptian and other construction firms restore the strip’s infrastructure.
FROM OUR FRIENDS
Podcast Alert!
Face-Off: U.S. vs. China takes an inside look at the turbulent relationship between the world’s two superpowers, the two men in charge, and the vital issues that affect us all. In this week’s episode, host Jane Perlez explores how journalists today are reporting on China from afar. We love it, and so will you.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Diplomats on the move ✈️
-
🇪🇺 The EU’s trade chief Maroš Šefčovič is in Washington this week meeting various US officials including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
-
🇿🇦 G20 foreign ministers (except America’s Marco Rubio) are in Johannesburg for their first meeting under South Africa’s 2025 G20 presidency.
-
🇨🇳 China’s Wang Yi stopped over at the United Nations in New York this week, delivering a speech on multilateralism.
-
🌍 And envoys from 19 African countries plus the African Union just met US Senator Ted Cruz (chair of a senate subcommittee on Africa), who reportedly calmed their jitters about being side-lined during Trump 2.0.
PASSPORT OF THE DAY
On the hunt for a new passport? The one above is up for grabs for the low, low price of ~$142,000. Rather than entice globetrotters to relocate to the tiny Pacific Island nation of Nauru en masse, the program is offering “enhanced global mobility and a second passport”, with the revenue helping Nauru’s 12,000 residents adapt to climate change.
Currently, Nauru’s passport gets you into 89 countries visa-free (it’s 193 for Singapore).
DAILY POLL
What's a bit of entertainment you think fellow Intriguers would dig? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think about this possible warming in US-Russia ties?
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 Great, they're needed for a lasting peace (16%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 Nope, the US is getting played (78%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (6%)
Your two cents:
-
👎 M.P: “I would be more hopeful about a better relationship if it weren’t at the expense of long time allies and sowing distrust across Europe.”
-
👍 D.A: “It's senseless for the two largest nuclear powers to ice each other. Not much good lasts in the world without at least the acquiescence of the two powers.”
-
✍️ D.B: “The strategy of isolating Russia has not worked – by itself. There needs to also be a carrot to go with the stick.”
-
✍️ M: “Keep your friends close, but keep your enemies closer.”
Was this forwarded to you? We're a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 120k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.
1 Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur.
2 The rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.
3 A minimum investment of $1,950 is required to receive bonus shares. 100% bonus shares are offered on investments of $9,950+.