Plus: Aquarium of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Trump’s top 5 orders |
2️⃣ Overheard in Davos |
3️⃣ Aquarium of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Sometimes I’m in awe of my co-founder Helen. Yesterday she zipped around Davos for back-to-back meetings, prepped for a WEF panel she’s speaking on, and somehow found time to host Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi for our Intrigue virtual discussion on the future of US-China relations.
Not for nothing, but the Congressman was a reminder that even though the loudest voices tend to dominate the headlines, Congress still has plenty of thoughtful, eloquent leaders grappling with the biggest challenges facing the US and indeed the world.
Speaking of headlines, President Trump got straight to work, signing scores of Executive Orders in his first full day in office. Today’s top story dives into the most consequential orders for US foreign policy.
And lastly, across Washington, Secretary of State Marco Rubio kicked off his first day at Foggy Bottom with a speech. If you work at State or as an FSO abroad, we’d love to hear your thoughts on the next four years under Rubio (on the DL of course!).
OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle launch AI project.
Donald Trump has announced that OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle will form a new $500B venture called ‘Stargate’ to expand AI infrastructure (primarily data centres) in the US.
Trump threatens China and EU tariffs.
Echoing his warnings against Canada and Mexico, the US president says he’s also mulling tariffs against the EU and China on the same 1 February timeline — he’s suggesting only an extra 10% levy on China for now, not the 60% he flagged during the campaign.
Israel launches military operation in Jenin.
At least eight people have been reported dead in what Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu is describing as a “large-scale and significant military operation” targeting “the Iranian axis” in the West Bank city of Jenin. Meanwhile, Trump has rolled back Biden-era sanctions on some Israeli settlers in the West Bank.
Panama launches probe into Chinese port operator.
In a possible nod to Trump, Panama has begun an audit of Hutchison Ports, the Hong Kong-based company operating ports at both ends of the Panama Canal — Intriguers will recall we foreshadowed this kind of possible pressure yesterday.
Turkey arrests nine over deadly hotel fire.
Authorities have detained nine people for questioning over a hotel fire in a ski resort in north-western Turkey that’s left 76 dead, and a country in official mourning today.
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TOP STORY
Five of Trump’s biggest executive actions
Within hours of taking the oath again, Donald Trump was back in the Oval Office signing dozens of executive actions while answering free-wheeling questions from the press.
The sheer volume at play here reminds us of that Simpsons moment where Mr Burns somehow contracts every illness known to man but they all cancel each other out — ie, there’s so much change happening at once, it can almost feel like there’s none at all.
Anyway, the Library of Congress has a handy guide on executive orders, proclamations, and memoranda, but they’re basically powerful tools the president can use to drive change without congressional approval — they’re common but sometimes controversial.
So here are five of the biggest internationally-focused actions Donald Trump has taken so far, and how they might shape the world around us:
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Implementing an America First foreign and trade policy
The new president has now decreed that “the foreign policy of the United States shall champion core American interests and always put America and American citizens first.” He leaves the details to his new secretary of state (Rubio), but he’s basically reiterating what he’s said for years: where an international arrangement doesn’t work for the US, ditch it.
That idea spooked US allies during Trump 1.0, so his first team started nuancing it behind closed doors with lines like “don’t worry — America First doesn’t mean America Alone”. You can bet allies will be looking for similar assurances this time around. You can also bet they’ll have noticed the absence of any reference to US values (often tied to interests).
Anyway, Trump has also now issued a memorandum pledging a trade policy that “defends our economic and national security, and — above all — benefits American workers, manufacturers, farmers, ranchers, entrepreneurs, and businesses”.
Here the picture is a little clearer, and even familiar — Biden officials used similar language. But when it comes to specific next steps, Trump now wants to:
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a) Cut the US trade deficit (which likely points to a broader imbalance with China)
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b) Tackle any unfair trade practices by major US trade partners like China, and
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c) Establish an external revenue service (ERS) to collect tariffs (that ERS branding reflects Trump’s argument that tariffs will only hit foreigners, unlike the IRS).
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Withdrawing from the WHO and Paris Agreement
No surprises here, but let’s look at why — first, there’s Trump’s scepticism towards the Paris Agreement, a binding but voluntarily-enforced pledge to limit the average global temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (we hit 1.6°C last year).
His concern is partly that voluntarily cutting emissions is a raw deal for the US when (for example) China has been home to 90% of global emissions growth since 2015 (it’s also building two thirds of the world’s new solar and wind). But leaving aside the Paris politics (Trump 1.0 withdrew, Biden re-entered), the US energy transition seemingly now has its own profit-driven momentum — emissions are dropping while the economy hums.
As for his frustration with the World Health Organisation (WHO)? It’s the body’s “inability to demonstrate independence from the inappropriate political influence of WHO member states” — i.e., China’s delayed and opaque response to Covid.
It’s not clear who (if anyone) might fill the resulting WHO funding gap, though the German health minister has flagged his hopes Trump might reconsider — the WHO is meant to be America’s (and the world’s) first line of pandemic defence.
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Designating drug cartels as terrorists
As pledged, Trump has now ordered the designation of drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations on par with groups like ISIS and Hezbollah.
While cartels don’t usually have a defining political or ideological agenda (required in many legal definitions of a terrorist group), their terrorist designation gives US agencies more tools to go after them — like hitting anyone providing “material support”.
But while past presidents (like Obama) have mulled this same move, they’ve ultimately left it on the drawing board for a few reasons:
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a) It rattles Mexico, a top trade partner that’s faced US military action in the past
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b) It might have unexpected impacts on business ties (eg via insurance risk), and
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c) It might not work — Mexico’s own past military-led strategy arguably just ended up unleashing more cartel violence while US drug consumption kept rising.
Still, Trump 2.0 has clearly determined it’s now worth the risk.
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Pulling out of the OECD’s Global Tax Deal
The 2021 Global Tax Deal applies a minimum 15% corporate tax rate across the ~38 members of the OECD (the Paris-based club of rich nations) plus ~100 others. The idea is to stop multinationals from pushing cash-strapped capitals into a tax race to the bottom.
But Trump 1.0 already introduced a ~10% global minimum tax in 2017, and he sees the OECD’s extra 5% as a foreign tax grab on US profits. So his memorandum clarifies that the OECD pact has no standing in the US. Of course, it still stands elsewhere, so his decree warns of retaliation against any foreign tax-collectors disproportionately targeting US firms.
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Halting foreign aid for 90 days
Finally, Trump has also ordered an immediate 90-day pause on “development assistance funds” (rather than US security assistance to partners like Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine). Why? So a review can ensure they’re “fully aligned with the foreign policy of the President”.
Lots of US aid has already been disbursed at this stage of the US electoral and financial cycle, and obvious targets like the UN Palestinian agency have already lost their US funding.
So what does this pause mean? That’s up to Marco Rubio, who told his confirmation hearing he wants US aid to make America a) safer, b) stronger, and c) more prosperous.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Love it or hate it, none of the above is really surprising. Trump campaigned (and won) on disrupting the status quo. Most of it will now come down to the details, and the world knows his fondness for making deals.
But zooming out, the common thread across it all is the US now moving (again) away from multilateral efforts towards more plurilateral, bilateral, and unilateral moves. And realistically, that’s going to involve trade-offs: sure there’ll be results Trump can chalk up as wins. But there’ll also be vacuums abroad that rivals might now seek to fill.
Also worth noting:
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Trump has also rescinded 78 of Biden’s executive actions so far.
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The US is by far the world’s top aid donor in nominal terms, investing $68B in the 2023 fiscal year. It’s also the world’s single largest source of private philanthropy, totalling $560B across both domestic and foreign recipients.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Trials have now begun in Azerbaijan for Armenian prisoners taken during Baku’s lightning 2023 offensive to seize Nagorno-Karabakh, including three former presidents of the separatist region. The charges against the 16 prisoners range from terrorism to separatism and war crimes.
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🇬🇱 Greenland: Greenland’s leader Múte Egede has said he’s working on arranging a meeting with the US, but is urging Greenlanders to stay calm, while reiterating they want to be neither Danes nor Americans. Egede says he’s conveyed that message to Trump’s team.
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🇮🇩 Indonesia: With Indonesia now joining the BRICS grouping, Russia’s local ambassador has told the Jakarta Globe the two nations are discussing using their own currencies for trade. Russia, the world’s most sanctioned nation, has long tried to de-dollarise its oil and gas sales, but who wants to get paid in rubles?
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🇺🇸 US: Trump envoy Richard Grenell has revealed he’s spoken with “multiple officials in Venezuela”, and is in touch with opposition figures, too. During Trump 1.0, Grenell held secret talks with Maduro’s team on a possible exit by the dictator — but he’s still in power, so Trump is hinting the US will (again) stop buying his oil.
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🇮🇱 Israel: With a ceasefire-hostage deal now in place, Israel’s military chief of staff has announced he’ll leave his role in March after “failing to protect Israel” against the Hamas attacks of October 7th. His southern command leader has also announced his resignation.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Overheard at Davos 👂 🏔️
Intrigue’s co-founder Helen is in the mountains of Davos this week, and boy is she hearing a thing or two…
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🇺🇸 USA House makes its promenade debut this year and rumours are swirling that President Trump himself (plus Elon Musk) might show up in person.
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🇺🇦 Ukrainian sources also say NATO is hosting a hush-hush meeting with US-NATO venture capitalists 💸 in St. Moritz, focused on funding Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction amid anticipation of Ukraine being welcomed into NATO.
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Someone at 🇲🇩 Moldova House noted that "commercial drones today are to the military sphere what iPhones are to our civilian world: ubiquitous, accessible, and remarkably impactful."
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In Davos and feeling the cold? Word is you can grab tea at Kurdistan House 🍵
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And 🇮🇩 Indonesia’s surprise big showing at Davos reflects a growing ambition to be a player on the global stage.
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Bonus bewilderment overheard in Mandarin: "Why do the Swiss gotta love fondue so much. It makes my tummy ache." You see? This is why you learn a language.
AQUARIUM OF THE DAY
Credits: shimonoseki_aq/X.
When the Kaikyokan Aquarium in Japan closed for renovations, a sunfish stopped eating and showed signs of distress. Staff initially couldn't figure out what was ailing the aquatic resident until one employee suggested lining up photos of human faces near the tank.
By the following day, the sunfish showed signs of improvement, perking up, regaining its appetite, and even waving its fins. The aquarium shared the story on X, where it took off.
DAILY POLL
Which executive action do you think will have the biggest impact? |
Yesterday’s poll: Which 'tribe' do you think will most shape Trump's approach to the world?
🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨 💪 The primacists (33%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⚖️ The prioritisers (35%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🏰 The isolationists (26%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write us!) (1%)
Your two cents:
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💪 D.R: “His foreign policy is, after all, called America First.”
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⚖️ S.M: "He knows when to fight and when not to fight."
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🏰 E.K.H: ”It's what he ran on, who he's surrounded by, and what the public seems to want.”
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✍️ K.F: “It’s the business oligarchs and the stock market. He won't want to rock those boats.”
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