🌎 Intrigue’s 2024 in review

IN TODAY’S EDITION

Hi Intriguer. Sure, there are technically a few days left, but we’re officially rounding this year up. It’s a gimme. So this will be our last daily briefing for 2024, but (after a couple more Intrigue surprises) we’ll be back from Friday 3 January.

As for the year that’s been? Despite it all, we’re fundamentally optimistic about where our world can go, and we appreciate you making Intrigue part of your journey. So with that, let’s dive into our 2024 year in review, focusing less on the conflicts that’ve dominated the headlines (including our own right below), and more on some of the slower-moving trends now shaping our world. See you in 2025.

THE HEADLINES

Saudi national charged over Germany’s Christmas market attack.
A psychiatrist is facing murder charges after speeding his BMW into a Christmas market in the German city of Magdeburg on Friday night, leaving at least five dead and 200 injured. Authorities haven’t announced a motive, though the suspect, Taleb al-Abdulmohsen, has previously described himself as an ex-Muslim, anti-Islamic activist.

The latest from the Russo-Ukraine war.
Slovakia’s Russia-friendly leader, Robert Fico, has made a surprise visit to Moscow in an attempt to salvage his supply of cheap Russian gas, which looks set to wind down now that Ukraine is declining to renew a key pipeline deal. Meanwhile, Moscow has vowed to retaliate after Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s distant city of Kazan.

US drops bounty on new Syria leader. 
Following direct talks, Washington has dropped its $10M bounty for the rebel leader who ousted Assad, Ahmad al-Sharaa (aka al-Golani). Meanwhile, there’s still no word on a ceasefire-hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, which has been “close” for weeks.

Trump suggests retaking Panama Canal.
The US president-elect has described Panama’s canal fees as “ridiculous” and suggested the canal be handed back to the US, which controlled the waterway until 1999. He’s also alluded to China’s growing influence in Panama, which has rebuffed the comments.

TOP STORY

1. Incumbents are out

Whether it was the right getting booted in the UK or the left in the US, or populists getting clipped from South Africa to India, this was a tough year to hold power. Sure, there were exceptions (looking at you Ireland and Mexico, where incumbents held on), plus some fake elections (hi Vlad and probably Mozambique). Oh, and some folks just ousted their leaders without a vote (adios Assad, and au revoir Sheikh Hasina).

But either way, voters really wanted change. And yet… it was often unclear what they wanted instead. Take France, where voters opted for a three-way parlay, leading to today’s gridlock with no obvious exit. To us, it’s one of many examples of governments struggling with unwieldy inboxes, and voters getting unhappy with the results.

But we’re optimists, so let’s also give a shout-out to Uruguay, which showed us the way — they held remarkably civil and unifying elections, backed by a ~90% turnout.

2. Resource competition

Junta-led Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali, and Chad and others are seeking a greater share of the mining spoils, in a year when capitals are already fretting to secure access to anything critical for their military, tech, and energy transition. Of course, this isn’t limited to Africa, but it seems unlikely to slow down at either end of the sandwich: Mali has now issued an arrest warrant for the CEO of the world’s 2nd-largest gold-miner (Barrick).

And yet, it’s not just about getting a bigger slice. It’s also part of a broader chess game: eg, Russian mercenaries are riding local waves of anti-Western sentiment, while US-China competition plays out across the continent. It’s all a resource and influence war disguised as a partnership, and it sometimes leaves local players holding more of the cards.

3. Defence spending

Despite Sweden finally snagging a spot in NATO’s ranks, the security picture is still murky for Europe — there (like everywhere else) capitals are ramping up spending ✌️thanks✌️ in large part to Russia’s ongoing invasion on their doorstep. But spending is only part of the problem. For example, across 11 major categories of weapons systems, the US fields a total of 32 different types. Europe? A chaotic 172. Streamlining isn’t an EU strong suit.

The new NATO chief Mark Rutte, famously dubbed ‘The Trump whisperer’, has a tough gig ahead, though there’s plenty of optimism that if anyone can help steer this NATO ship through turbulent times, it’s good ol’ bicycle-riding, antique-Nokia-using Marky Mark.

4. Climate diplomacy

This year’s COP29 climate talks generated less buzz and delivered weaker outcomes, and the reasons go beyond the host: sure, Azerbaijan is no environmental pin-up, but neither were Egypt and the UAE before them. And yet, those two summits were still buzzy affairs.

What gives? We’re witnessing a shift in who drives the conversation, both at home and abroad: as government to-do lists grow, voices in the climate space are struggling to get heard. But Mother Nature is now doing more of the talking herself, whether via record droughts in Latin America, record floods in Europe, or record temperatures globally.

5. The tech race

This year, we saw social media platforms bump up against governments everywhere: whether it was alleged online disinformation in Brazil, incitement to hatred in the UK, unrest in Pakistan, data breaches in the EU, censorship in Turkey, online safety in Australia, exploitation material in France, or national security in the US (ahead of a possible TikTok ban), governments everywhere are now on the offensive.

So what’s the cause of this emerging ‘splinternet’? Tech is now a globalising force in a rapidly de-globalising world. For capitals, that means reasserting themselves as the arbiters of what’s acceptable online within their own borders — or at least rejecting the notion that the arbiters should be foreign tech tycoons. And for CEOs of all stripes, it’s a reminder that this world is no longer a single market ripe for the taking.

6. It’s tariff time

The world is bracing for more protectionism, just as global trade hits an all-time record of ~$33T. This shift isn’t because of new insights into what protectionism can and can’t do. Rather, it’s because calculations have shifted, leading some governments to conclude that the costs are now worth it, whether to protect an industry, support a constituency, tackle unfairness, keep local prices low, force more investment, or curb a rival.

These justifications all in turn stem from a broader sense that maybe globalisation didn’t deliver on its promises after all. And while it all plays out, many businesses and investors everywhere will hit pause rather than risk getting the rug pulled.