Plus: TV of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ 3 golden tales |
2️⃣ Diplomats on the move |
3️⃣ TV of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Many myths and tales centre around gold — from King Midas’ greedy wish to Jason’s ‘Golden Fleece’, and of course the various iterations of ‘lost’ cities of gold. Ancient civilizations held gold in high regard, and often associated it with the gods and immortality.
Nowadays, society has a different take on gold. Warren Buffet, for one, believes that investing in gold is a way of “going long on fear”. What motivates many gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of fearful will grow, and that gold is a safe-haven in times of turmoil.
Keep that in mind as we dive into today’s top story on gold and its current record-high prices.
China begins military drills off Taiwan (again).
China’s military has launched large-scale exercises near Taiwan in what it’s calling “a stern warning” against independence. The exercises have included simulated attacks and blockades. China also has a research vessel (a suspected spy ship) in Australian waters.
Europe to hit Big Tech in tariff retaliation?
The EU is reportedly mulling going after US banks and tech companies in retaliation for various new US tariffs due tomorrow (Wednesday). There’ve also been reports Mark Zuckerberg has been lobbying Trump to resist an expected EU ruling against Meta.
Israel strikes Beirut as ceasefire wobbles.
Israeli jets have struck the Lebanese capital twice in the last three days, arguing it’s in response to Hezbollah rockets and attack planning. Meanwhile, UN aid chief Tom Fletcher is demanding answers after the recovery of 15 dead rescue workers in Gaza, with an initial Israeli statement arguing the aid convoy approached without prior coordination.
Le Pen lashes sentencing.
The French opposition figure is vowing to appeal her embezzlement conviction and five-year ban on running for office, which she’s labelled a “political decision”. Fellow populist-nationalists across Europe and the US have voiced their solidarity.
US embassies tell suppliers to ditch DEI.
Spain and France have criticised a US move urging local suppliers for US missions to ditch their diversity initiatives or risk payment freezes.
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TOP STORY
Three golden tales as our world wobbles
Gold prices smashed a new record yet again on Monday, breaking past $3,100/oz.
Why?
The proximate answer is we’re now a day away from Trump unveiling his next tariffs on all countries (not just those with US trade imbalances) — and the related unpredictability is making it trickier for executives to plan, investors to trade, and consumers to buy.
So more folks are parking their cash in presumed safe-heavens like gold. But also…
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There’s broader volatility in the air (wars, tech disruption, political intrigue)
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That’s driving a longer-term hunger for safe-havens, and yet
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Uncertainty around America’s own trajectory is nudging more traders to stash their cash in other currencies like the yen and Swiss franc (both at recent highs).
So as the dollar records its worst quarter since 2022, gold — priced in dollars — goes up.
Anyway, while that all plays out, here are three intriguing gold tales we’re tracking:
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Central banks are still hoovering up gold
They just bought more than 1,000 metric tons of gold for the third consecutive year, and look set for a four-peat in 2025. Whether it’s Turkey, India, or Poland, they’re all keen to:
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a) Hedge against currency fluctuations and inflation
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b) Maintain stability and credibility in their financial systems, and
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c) Diversify their vaults away from over-reliance on any single asset like the USD.
That last driver has really gained momentum since Putin invaded Ukraine — Biden’s move to wield the world’s dollar-reliance as a cudgel to hit Putin (via sanctions) startled some who fear being next. So it’s no wonder today’s top gold buyers include strongmen like Turkey’s Erdogan, India’s Modi, and China’s Xi.
Interestingly, the main exception in the top ten is Poland (at #1), though this makes sense when you remember a) it borders both Russia and Ukraine so it wants a buffer against any war spill-over, and b) it’s a NATO ally, so it wants any buffer against US equivocation.
And speaking of which…
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Do some nations want their gold back?
It’s not just illiberal strongmen clutching gold.
Take Germany, which has the world’s second-largest reserves, but it doesn’t stash that gold in one big Scrooge McDuck pile underneath the Bundesbank. At least, not that we’ve heard? Rather, Germany diversifies by stashing half its gold abroad, with 37% ($120B) at the New York Fed, and 13% with British vaults.
But as Europeans rethink an America-first US, some previously-fringe calls are edging closer to power — Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel, for example, is now having to swat away calls (🇩🇪) for Germany to bring its gold back from the US, assuring audiences, “I have complete confidence in our colleagues at the American central bank”.
But it’s intriguing he even feels the need to respond. As for those American colleagues…
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Will the US revalue its gold?
There’s been constant chatter across DC and Wall Street that the US might re-value its gold holdings (the world’s biggest) from the old 1973 $42/oz benchmark to current $3,000+ prices — that’d theoretically deliver a ~$750B balance sheet boost that could help the US reduce its borrowing needs, and/or help fund Trump’s sovereign wealth fund.
But his treasury secretary (Bessent) has reiterated it’s not on the cards. He hasn’t said why, but our guess is he’s wary this kind of accounting trick would actually spook markets by a) seeming desperate, and b) not addressing the deeper US debt and deficit challenges.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
It was JP Morgan (the guy, not his bank) who famously testified (💾) before Congress that “money is gold, and nothing else.” He was arguing that credit and even dollar bills all basically depend on someone else holding up their end, while gold — for reasons rooted in human history and psychology — has long carried inherent value that’s enabled the metal to hold its purchasing power across centuries.
Deep down, that all really goes to trust. Morgan used the term “character”. For him, if we humans can’t trust one another (his basis for all business), we can at least trust gold. But it’s worth keeping a couple other things in mind here:
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First, that doesn’t make gold infallible. There are already bears forecasting a major correction as high costs lead to lower demand and more supply, plus
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Second, the above three stories all (if inversely) eventually tie back to trust in the US and its place in the world: its trajectory, its predictability, and its dependability.
Also worth noting:
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Central banks now hold around one-fifth of all the gold ever mined.
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China’s central bank resumed gold purchases once Trump won in November — it’s likely a way to gird China’s financial system ahead of more US tariffs.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇦🇫 Afghanistan: Moscow has moved to take the Taliban off Russia’s terrorist list, formalising Putin’s earlier declaration that the group is a trusted ally against ISIS. While the Taliban remains under Western and UN sanctions, nearby players like Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have quietly re-established contact.
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🇱🇹 Lithuania: Authorities have now recovered the bodies of three US soldiers from an armoured vehicle, six days after it ended up underwater during drills in Lithuania’s swampy border area near Belarus. A fourth soldier remains missing.
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🇹🇭 Thailand: The local tourism minister has said he still expects 38 million tourists to show up this year, notwithstanding Friday’s deadly earthquake. The Thai hotel industry, however, is forecasting an initial 10-15% drop in revenue.
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🇵🇪 Peru: China-owned MMG has moved to assure investors that its vast copper mine in Peru isn’t being impacted by an illegal mining boom. The company published its statement after a Bloomberg investigation triggered a 6% slump in MMG’s shares on Monday.
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🇸🇾 Syria: Interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has unveiled Syria’s new 23-minister cabinet, including representatives from the country’s religious and ethnic minorities. He’s describing his new team as “a declaration of our joint will to build a new state”.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
Diplomacy in action 👀
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🛡️ NATO foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels this week (3-4 April) with Marco Rubio flagging a focus on China and boosting allied defence spending.
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🇮🇹 The senate foreign relations committee hearing for Donald Trump’s nominated ambassador to Italy (the billionaire owner of the Houston Rockets) is today.
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🇨🇳 China’s top envoy Wang Yi is in Moscow to see his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, with Wang declaring the two neighbours are “friends forever, never enemies” (though years like 1652, 1689, 1929, and 1969 would like a word).
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🇹🇷 And over on X, the foreign ministries of Turkey and Israel are continuing their leaders’ war of words, trading some increasingly feisty barbs about antisemitism, Zionism, Gaza, the Turkey protests, and even Pikachu.
TV OF THE DAY
Credits: TV Garden.
A Russian language tutor once told us that to level up, you’ve gotta turn on Russian radio or television in the background as you go about your day. But how, we hear you ask? We were delighted to learn recently about an online service called TV Garden, which somehow streams channels from all over the world on a single website — you just pick a country, and off you go down your preferred rabbit hole.
Our favourite might be the Random Channel feature, which can take you from a Polish talk-show to a Venezuelan soap opera then a Bahraini sports fixture with a roll of the dice.
DAILY POLL
Where do you think is the safest place to stash your wealth right now? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think there's a real chance Trump will bomb Iran?
🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 💣 Yep, he won't accept a nuclear Iran (45%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🙅 Nope, too risky — it's just bluster as leverage (52%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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🙅 M.S: “Bombing may be a short term panacea but in the long term the revenge against America and Trump will be cataclysmic.”
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💣 R.J: “Trump struck Soleimani who was the second most important figure… he will approve a strike in Iran if he deems it necessary.”
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🙅 D.J.S : “Trump won’t have the US drop the first bomb on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but he will give Israel every conceivable form of support when it does so and total support in the war which will follow.”
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✍️ R.C: “Bombing Iran would have minimal impact, but cyber attacks would be a real threat.”
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