Plus: Flag of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ US-Russia talks |
2️⃣ The Intrigue jobs board |
3️⃣ Flag of the day |
Hi Intriguer. There’s a running joke at APEC, the collection of 21 Asia-Pacific economies.
Basically APEC loves acronyms, and one crucial APEC acronym is the ‘SOM’ — that’s the regular Senior Officials’ Meetings that keep things progressing throughout the year. But if you’re in the know, you’ll also score an invite to the ‘JOM’ — that’s the ✌️Junior Officials’ Meeting✌️, which is the joke name for when the junior-burgers from all country delegations enjoy a night out on the town, trading gossip and laughs.
The ‘JOM’ is on my mind because the one delegation that never attended was Russia. And one of the last times I had talks with Russia (our lead today) was at a pre-war APEC summit when, in an elevator with two young Russian delegates, I asked if they were joining the JOM that evening. They regarded me with suspicion, then left.
Trump mulls tariffs on cars, pharma, and chips.
The US president has flagged he’ll impose tariffs of around 25% on pharmaceuticals, cars, and semiconductors. Details remain hazy, with more info promised by 2 April.
Bolsonaro charged with attempted coup.
Brazil’s chief prosecutor has charged former leader Jair Bolsonaro with attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election to his rival Lula da Silva. The prosecution alleges Bolsonaro even planned to poison Lula and kill a Supreme Court justice. If the Supreme Court agrees, Bolsonaro and 33 others will then face a trial. He maintains his innocence.
Israel-Hamas to kick off talks on phase two.
Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas on phase two of their ceasefire will begin this week, after a rocky few days raised questions about the viability of the entire deal.
Australian navy shadows China warships near Sydney.
Two Australian navy ships are shadowing two Chinese warships and a supply vessel as they travel in international waters down Australia’s eastern coast to within 150 nautical miles (278 km) of Sydney, the closest they’ve ever been without an invite. Beijing routinely objects to Australian naval vessels steaming through international waters near China.
Nasa warns of asteroid threat in 2032.
The space agency has warned an asteroid which could level a city now has a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, the highest threat rating in modern history (though still almost certain to miss).
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TOP STORY
US-Russia talks kick off
L to R: Witkoff, Rubio, Waltz, bin Farhan, al-Aiban, Uhakov, Lavrov. Credits: Press handout.
After nearly three years of diplomatic deep freeze, the US and Russia are back on talking terms. And talk they did. For 4.5 hours, over lamb and scallops at one point.
Senior reps from both capitals met at a Saudi palace in Riyadh for talks on a future Russo-Ukraine deal following last week’s Trump-Putin phone call.
Who was there?
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Trump sent Marco Rubio (his secretary of state), Mike Waltz (his national security advisor), and Steve Witkoff (his special envoy and long-time friend), and
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Putin sent Sergey Lavrov (his foreign minister), Yuri Ushakov (his foreign policy advisor and former ambassador to the US), and Kirill Dmitriev (the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, which is gradually going broke).
They were hosted by Prince Faisal bin Farhan (the Saudi foreign minister) and Musaad al-Aiban (the Saudi national security advisor), who kicked things off then left the room.
What’s the objective here?
The official DC line is that these aren’t the talks, but a prelude to talks. Rubio, for example, has said it’s just the “first step of a long and difficult journey”, and previously described this week as a test to see whether Russia is serious about ending the war.
Meanwhile, the official Kremlin line from Putin’s spokesman (Peskov) is that these talks are about, “first and foremost, restoring the full scope of US-Russia relations”, and secondly, focussing on preparations for “potential negotiations” on ending the war.
But of course, you don’t need ex-diplomats like us to tell you that, even before formal talks, anything you say still helps the other side calibrate its strategy to get what it wants.
So with that in mind, we can’t ignore last week’s various unilateral US declarations, like ruling out Ukraine’s NATO membership, de-facto acknowledging Russia’s territorial gains by force, and foreshadowing a reduced US security presence in Europe (all with no apparent requirement from Russia).
Anyway, what then came out of yesterday’s Riyadh talks?
According to Washington’s official readout, the US and Russia agreed to:
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Establish a channel to address “irritants” in the US-Russia relationship
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Appoint “high level teams” to begin working on a peace agreement that’s “enduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all sides”, and
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Work towards “future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities” that emerge after the war.
Rubio separately told reporters that step two above would involve “engagement and consultation with Europe and Ukraine”.
Meanwhile, according to Russia’s state outlets, the talks also included preparations for an in-person meeting between Putin and Trump, though they offered no further details.
Both sides then sprinkled a little more colour with reporters outside:
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Russia’s Lavrov described the possible presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine as “completely unacceptable”, and said the US talks also touched on sanctions relief, plus Dmitriev elaborated on economic opportunities available to the US in a post-sanctions world, particularly in the oil and gas sector, while…
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Rubio said he was ”convinced” Russia was committed to a serious peace process, which would have to involve the EU “at some point” given EU sanctions on Russia.
Donald Trump himself then weighed in from Florida, bristling at a reporter’s question regarding Ukraine’s disappointment at not being invited to the talks, and commenting:
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He just wants the killing to stop
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Ukraine “should never have started it” and “allowed the war to go on”, and
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"The leader in Ukraine is down at 4% approval ratings. Wouldn't the people of Ukraine need to have an election?"
So… how has the world reacted?
🇺🇦 Ukraine
President Zelensky has voiced anger at the US talking with Ukraine’s invaders, “about Ukraine again – and without Ukraine”. He’s now hoping to get further clarification from US special envoy Keith Kellogg who’s due in Kyiv today (Wednesday), though it’s unclear what clout Kellogg even has at this stage (he didn’t score a seat in Riyadh, for example).
There’s also been local shock, not just at Trump’s suggestion that Ukraine is to blame for Putin’s decision to invade, but also at Trump’s call for Ukrainian elections — first, because Zelensky’s approval (52%) is higher than Trump’s; second, because the country’s constitution prohibits elections during martial law (how do the million Ukrainian troops vote while defending against Russia’s invasion); third, because polls suggest anyone capable of beating Zelensky would hardly be Russia-friendly, indicating this call is more an attempt to discredit Zelensky; and fourth, that’s presumably why it’s a call more commonly made by Putin himself, who has meanwhile killed or exiled any credible opposition back home.
🇪🇺 Europe
Meanwhile, the mood in Europe is similarly sombre — Danish leader Mette Frederiksen, for example, just told her parliament that the security outlook is now “worse than the Cold War”, reflecting a broader vibe of shock and gloom at the rapidly shifting sands under Europe’s feet. Some now even fear Trump will agree to a Putin demand to remove US troops defending NATO allies along the Baltic.
And after failing to develop a united response at Monday’s emergency meeting in Paris, EU leaders plus Norway and Canada are now holding a follow-up today (Wednesday).
🇷🇺 Russia
Meanwhile, Moscow continues to sound triumphant and in control, though that’s not due to any success on the battlefield — six months on, Putin still can’t take back his own Kursk territory that the Ukrainians counter-seized in August, while any momentum has slowed over in Ukraine’s east. Lavrov is (as above) issuing demands nonetheless.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
One way to look at all this is that Trump presumably believes he can succeed where the last four US presidents have failed, by finally pulling off a US ‘reset’ with Russia: Clinton had his bromance with Yeltsin; Bush Jr famously saw Putin’s soul; Obama ditched a missile shield in an attempt to reverse a “dangerous drift” in US-Russia ties; and Biden even met Putin personally in Geneva.
But along the way, Putin invaded Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, and the rest of Ukraine in 2022, plus also propped up Assad from 2015, while destabilising former Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia that hadn’t already rushed to NATO’s defence umbrella (a process Putin calls NATO expansion). So maybe the issue here is less about failed US resets, and more about Russia’s clear ambition.
Also worth noting:
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Beijing has remained relatively quiet, possibly reflecting the regional limits of its power, its own complex history with Russia, its domestic woes, and probably some unease around what US-Russia ties might mean for Beijing’s own strategy.
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Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan just hosted President Zelensky, again declaring that Ukraine’s territorial integrity is indisputable.
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Meanwhile, the Saudis will notch their hosting up as a win, in an attempt not only to rehabilitate Riyadh’s image after assassinating Jamal Khashoggi, but also to beat the rival Emiratis to regional and global powerbroker status.
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US intelligence officials have told NBC that Putin is just going through the motions with these talks, and still thinks he can eventually control all of Ukraine.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇯🇵 Japan: The head of China’s state news agency Xinhua has met the president of Japan’s own Kyodo News in Tokyo, urging more coverage of people-to-people links to create a “favourable public opinion environment” for Sino-Japanese ties. Interestingly, Kyodo News doesn’t yet seem to have reported on the meeting.
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🇪🇺 EU: WhatsApp has now hit 45 million monthly users across the EU. Honestly we’re surprised it hadn’t hit that number already, but we mention this particular milestone now because it means the messaging platform has now officially become a Very Large Online Platform (or the charming acronym, VLOP) under EU law, subject to tougher rules.
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🇮🇩 Indonesia: Thousands of Indonesian students have taken to the streets across multiple cities this week. They’re accusing President Prabowo Subianto and his predecessors of pushing Indonesia not towards its ‘Golden Indonesia’ vision for 2045 (the centenary of independence) but instead towards darkness.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: Nine months out from hosting the next COP climate talks, Brazil has greenlit joining OPEC+ (as well as the International Energy Agency and the International Renewable Energy Agency). Brazil’s participation in the OPEC+ group of major oil producers won’t include any binding obligations, and President Lula has previously said oil revenues could help finance the energy transition.
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🇮🇷 Iran: Iranian authorities have detained a British couple on a motorbike trip around the world, and now formally charged them with espionage. The UK has previously accused Iran of using British detainees as pawns for diplomatic leverage.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
Intrigue’s job board is back!
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Project Specialist @ GLOBSEC in Bratislava
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Assistant in the Office of the Ambassador @ Austrian Embassy in DC
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Head of the Climate Club Secretariat @ OECD In Paris
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Risk Manager @ Hitachi Energy in Tokyo
FLAG OF THE DAY
You can’t miss the Canadian flag, but all of Canada’s former living prime ministers just signed an open letter calling on Canadians to fly it high (Saturday was Canada’s flag day). The letter notes there’s been "a surge of Canadian pride and patriotism" in the face of “threats and insults from Donald Trump”.
This year also marks 60 years since the country replaced its flag, swapping out an earlier version that featured a prominent Union Jack.
DAILY POLL
What do you think about this possible warming in US-Russia ties? |
Yesterday’s poll: Who do you think gains most from any defrosting between Beijing and the private sector?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🇨🇳 The Communist Party (74%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💼 Business (24%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write us!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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🇨🇳 B.S.J: “Business will gain of course, but the Communist Party will gain more by strengthening the economy.”
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💼 L.D: “There is a newly ascending technology wave, and the Communist Party and business need each other if they both are to remain competitive – symbiosis must go on.”
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✍️ S.M: “The Chinese people — an improved economy means more prosperity.”
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