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IN TODAYโS EDITION
1๏ธโฃ US-Russia talks |
2๏ธโฃ The Intrigue jobs board |
3๏ธโฃ Flag of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Thereโs a running joke at APEC, the collection of 21 Asia-Pacific economies.
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Basically APEC loves acronyms, and one crucial APEC acronym is the โSOMโ โ thatโs the regular Senior Officialsโ Meetings that keep things progressing throughout the year. But if youโre in the know, youโll also score an invite to the โJOMโ โ thatโs the โ๏ธJunior Officialsโ Meetingโ๏ธ, which is the joke name for when the junior-burgers from all country delegations enjoy a night out on the town, trading gossip and laughs.
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The โJOMโ is on my mind becauseย the one delegation that never attended was Russia. And one of the last times I had talks with Russia (our lead today) was at a pre-war APEC summit when, in an elevator with two young Russian delegates, I asked if they were joining the JOM that evening. They regarded me with suspicion, then left.
THE HEADLINES
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Trump mulls tariffs on cars, pharma, and chips.
The US president has flagged heโll impose tariffs of around 25% on pharmaceuticals, cars, and semiconductors. Details remain hazy, with more info promised by 2 April.
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Bolsonaro charged with attempted coup.
Brazilโs chief prosecutor has charged former leader Jair Bolsonaro with attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election to his rival Lula da Silva. The prosecution alleges Bolsonaro even planned to poison Lula and kill a Supreme Court justice. If the Supreme Court agrees, Bolsonaro and 33 others will then face a trial. He maintains his innocence.
Israel-Hamas to kick off talks on phase two.
Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas on phase two of their ceasefire will begin this week, after a rocky few days raised questions about the viability of the entire deal.
Australian navy shadows China warships near Sydney.
Two Australian navy ships are shadowing two Chinese warships and a supply vessel as they travel in international waters down Australiaโs eastern coast to within 150 nautical miles (278 km) of Sydney, the closest theyโve ever been without an invite. Beijing routinely objects to Australian naval vessels steaming through international waters near China.
Nasa warns of asteroid threat in 2032.
The space agency has warned an asteroid which could level a city now has a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, the highest threat rating in modern history (though still almost certain to miss).
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TOP STORY
US-Russia talks kick off
L to R: Witkoff, Rubio, Waltz, bin Farhan, al-Aiban, Uhakov, Lavrov. Credits: Press handout.
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After nearly three years of diplomatic deep freeze, the US and Russia are back on talking terms. And talk they did.ย For 4.5 hours, over lamb and scallops at one point.
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Senior reps from both capitals met at a Saudi palace in Riyadh for talks on a future Russo-Ukraine deal following last weekโs Trump-Putin phone call.
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Who was there?
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Trump sent Marco Rubio (his secretary of state), Mike Waltz (his national security advisor), and Steve Witkoff (his special envoy and long-time friend), and
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Putin sent Sergey Lavrov (his foreign minister), Yuri Ushakov (his foreign policy advisor and former ambassador to the US), and Kirill Dmitriev (the head of Russiaโs sovereign wealth fund, which is gradually going broke).
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They were hosted by Prince Faisal bin Farhan (the Saudi foreign minister) and Musaad al-Aiban (the Saudi national security advisor), who kicked things off then left the room.
Whatโs the objective here?ย
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The official DC line is that these arenโt the talks, but a prelude to talks. Rubio, for example, has said itโs just the โfirst step of a long and difficult journeyโ, and previously described this week as a test to see whether Russia is serious about ending the war.
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Meanwhile, the official Kremlin line from Putinโs spokesman (Peskov) is that these talks are about, โfirst and foremost, restoring the full scope of US-Russia relationsโ, and secondly, focussing on preparations for โpotential negotiationsโ on ending the war.
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But of course, you donโt need ex-diplomats like us to tell you that, even before formal talks, anything you say still helps the other side calibrate its strategy to get what it wants.
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So with that in mind, we canโt ignore last weekโs various unilateral US declarations, like ruling out Ukraineโs NATO membership, de-facto acknowledging Russiaโs territorial gains by force, and foreshadowing a reduced US security presence in Europe (all with no apparent requirement from Russia).
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Anyway, what then came out of yesterdayโs Riyadh talks?ย
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According to Washingtonโs official readout, the US and Russia agreed to:ย ย
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Establish a channel to address โirritantsโ in the US-Russia relationshipย
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Appoint โhigh level teamsโ to begin working on a peace agreement thatโs โenduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all sidesโ, and
-
Work towards โfuture cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunitiesโ that emerge after the war.
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Rubio separately told reporters that step two above would involve โengagement and consultation with Europe and Ukraineโ.
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Meanwhile, according to Russiaโs state outlets, the talks also included preparations for an in-person meeting between Putin and Trump, though they offered no further details.ย
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Both sides then sprinkled a little more colour with reporters outside:
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Russiaโs Lavrov described the possible presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine as โcompletely unacceptableโ, and said the US talks also touched on sanctions relief, plus Dmitriev elaborated on economic opportunities available to the US in a post-sanctions world, particularly in the oil and gas sector, whileโฆ
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Rubio said he was โconvincedโ Russia was committed to a serious peace process, which would have to involve the EU โat some pointโ given EU sanctions on Russia.
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Donald Trump himself then weighed in from Florida, bristling at a reporterโs question regarding Ukraineโs disappointment at not being invited to the talks, and commenting:
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He just wants the killing to stop
-
Ukraine โshould never have started itโ and โallowed the war to go onโ, and
-
“The leader in Ukraine is down at 4% approval ratings. Wouldn’t the people of Ukraine need to have an election?”
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Soโฆ how has the world reacted?
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๐บ๐ฆย Ukraine
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President Zelensky has voiced anger at the US talking with Ukraineโs invaders, โabout Ukraine again – and without Ukraineโ. Heโs now hoping to get further clarification from US special envoy Keith Kellogg whoโs due in Kyiv today (Wednesday), though itโs unclear what clout Kellogg even has at this stage (he didnโt score a seat in Riyadh, for example).
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Thereโs also been local shock, not just at Trumpโs suggestion that Ukraine is to blame for Putinโs decision to invade, but also at Trumpโs call for Ukrainian elections โ first, because Zelenskyโs approval (52%) is higher than Trumpโs; second, because the countryโs constitution prohibits elections during martial law (how do the million Ukrainian troops vote while defending against Russiaโs invasion); third, because polls suggest anyone capable of beating Zelensky would hardly be Russia-friendly, indicating this call is more an attempt to discredit Zelensky; and fourth, thatโs presumably why itโs a call more commonly made by Putin himself, who has meanwhile killed or exiled any credible opposition back home.
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๐ช๐บ Europe
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Meanwhile, the mood in Europe is similarly sombre โ Danish leader Mette Frederiksen, for example, just told her parliament that the security outlook is now โworse than the Cold Warโ, reflecting a broader vibe of shock and gloom at the rapidly shifting sands under Europeโs feet. Some now even fear Trump will agree to a Putin demand to remove US troops defending NATO allies along the Baltic.
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And after failing to develop a united response at Mondayโs emergency meeting in Paris, EU leaders plus Norway and Canada are now holding a follow-up today (Wednesday).
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๐ท๐บ Russia
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Meanwhile, Moscow continues to sound triumphant and in control, though thatโs not due to any success on the battlefield โ six months on, Putin still canโt take back his own Kursk territory that the Ukrainians counter-seized in August, while any momentum has slowed over in Ukraineโs east. Lavrov is (as above) issuing demands nonetheless.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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One way to look at all this is that Trump presumably believes he can succeed where the last four US presidents have failed, by finally pulling off a US โresetโ with Russia: Clinton had his bromance with Yeltsin; Bush Jr famously saw Putinโs soul; Obama ditched a missile shield in an attempt to reverse a โdangerous driftโ in US-Russia ties; and Biden even met Putin personally in Geneva.
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But along the way, Putin invaded Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, and the rest of Ukraine in 2022, plus also propped up Assad from 2015, while destabilising former Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia that hadnโt already rushed to NATOโs defence umbrella (a process Putin calls NATO expansion). So maybe the issue here is less about failed US resets, and more about Russiaโs clear ambition.
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Also worth noting:
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Beijing has remained relatively quiet, possibly reflecting the regional limits of its power, its own complex history with Russia, its domestic woes, and probably some unease around what US-Russia ties might mean for Beijingโs own strategy.
-
Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoฤan just hosted President Zelensky, again declaring that Ukraineโs territorial integrity is indisputable.
-
Meanwhile, the Saudis will notch their hosting up as a win, in an attempt not only to rehabilitate Riyadhโs image after assassinating Jamal Khashoggi, but also to beat the rival Emiratis to regional and global powerbroker status.
-
US intelligence officials have told NBC that Putin is just going through the motions with these talks, and still thinks he can eventually control all of Ukraine.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
-
๐ฏ๐ตย Japan: The head of Chinaโs state news agency Xinhua has met the president of Japanโs own Kyodo News in Tokyo, urging more coverage of people-to-people links to create a โfavourable public opinion environmentโ for Sino-Japanese ties. Interestingly, Kyodo News doesnโt yet seem to have reported on the meeting.
-
๐ช๐บย EU: WhatsApp has now hit 45 million monthly users across the EU. Honestly weโre surprised it hadnโt hit that number already, but we mention this particular milestone now because it means the messaging platform has now officially become a Very Large Online Platform (or the charming acronym, VLOP) under EU law, subject to tougher rules.ย
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๐ฎ๐ฉย Indonesia: Thousands of Indonesian students have taken to the streets across multiple cities this week. Theyโre accusing President Prabowo Subianto and his predecessors of pushing Indonesia not towards its โGolden Indonesiaโ vision for 2045 (the centenary of independence) but instead towards darkness.
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๐ง๐ทย Brazil: Nine months out from hosting the next COP climate talks, Brazil has greenlit joining OPEC+ (as well as the International Energy Agency and the International Renewable Energy Agency). Brazilโs participation in the OPEC+ group of major oil producers wonโt include any binding obligations, and President Lula has previously said oil revenues could help finance the energy transition.ย
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๐ฎ๐ทย Iran: Iranian authorities have detained a British couple on a motorbike trip around the world, and now formally charged them with espionage. The UK has previously accused Iran of using British detainees as pawns for diplomatic leverage.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
Intrigueโs job board is back!
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Project Specialist @ GLOBSEC in Bratislava
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Assistant in the Office of the Ambassador @ Austrian Embassy in DC
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Head of the Climate Club Secretariat @ OECD In Paris
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Risk Manager @ Hitachi Energy in Tokyo
FLAG OF THE DAY
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You canโt miss the Canadian flag, but all of Canadaโs former living prime ministers just signed an open letter calling on Canadians to fly it high (Saturday was Canadaโs flag day). The letter notes thereโs been “a surge of Canadian pride and patriotism” in the face of โthreats and insults from Donald Trumpโ.
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This year also marks 60 years since the country replaced its flag, swapping out an earlier version that featured a prominent Union Jack.
DAILY POLL
What do you think about this possible warming in US-Russia ties? |
Yesterdayโs poll: Who do you think gains most from any defrosting between Beijing and the private sector?
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย ๐จ๐ณ The Communist Party (74%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ผ Business (24%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write us!) (2%)
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Your two cents:
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๐จ๐ณย B.S.J: โBusiness will gain of course, but the Communist Party will gain more by strengthening the economy.โ
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๐ผย L.D: โThere is a newly ascending technology wave, and the Communist Party and business need each other if they both are to remain competitive – symbiosis must go on.โ
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โ๏ธ S.M: โThe Chinese people โ an improved economy means more prosperity.โ
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Was this forwarded to you? We’re a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 120k+ leaders each day. Itโs free to subscribe.
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