Plus: Competition of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ US greenlights long-range attacks on Russia |
2️⃣ Why Chileans are googling ‘festival de viña 2025’ |
3️⃣ Niche competition of the day |
Hi Intriguer. One of the more amusing things about working in the business of diplomacy is learning the acronyms lingo. It really was like speaking in a different tongue.
Those with basic fluency were able to recognise and memorise what the common acronyms stood for (like ‘UNGA’ – United Nations General Assembly, ‘COP’ – Conference of the Parties, and ‘WTO’ – World Trade Organization).
Those with intermediate fluency would flex their mastery by articulating the phonetic pronunciation of the more complex acronyms, like ‘CHOGM’ (choh-gum) and ‘RCEP’ (arr-sep).
I came across a new one today – ‘ATACMS’ (Army Tactical Missile Systems), which I’ve learned is aptly pronounced ‘attack-ems’. We dive into those today in our top story on the Russo-Ukraine war.
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DOJ seeks breakup of Chrome from Google.
The US Department of Justice will ask a judge to request Google to sell its Chrome business to address antitrust concerns. Chrome is the world’s most used web browser, with ~65% of global market share. If the presiding judge accepts the recommendation, it could lead to one of the biggest tech shake-ups in years.
US envoy arrives in Lebanon for ceasefire talks.
Amos Hochstein, a close advisor to President Biden, has arrived in Beirut to discuss a possible ceasefire to halt the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war. Lebanese authorities have reportedly reacted “positively” to a US-backed proposal, which includes a 60-day ceasefire period.
Undersea cable between Germany and Finland cut.
The 1,200km (745 mi) C-Lion1 fibre optic cable in the Baltic Sea was cut on Monday, according to its Finnish operator Cinia. The damage was almost certainly the result of “external force”, which raises suspicions about possible sabotage by Russia.
Hong Kong court jails 45 pro-democracy activists under national security law.
The defendants, part of a group known as the ‘Hong Kong 47’, were handed down sentences of up to 10 years in prison on subversion charges. The group had pushed a pro-democracy agenda in Hong Kong, including by organising an unofficial primary election in 2020 to bolster pro-democracy candidates.
Russia vetoes Sudan ceasefire resolution.
The UK and US strongly criticised Russia’s veto against a draft UK-sponsored Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Sudan, where a civil war has displaced over 11 million people. In response, Russia accused the UK of meddling in Sudan’s affairs without consulting the country.
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TOP STORY
US will let Ukraine use long-range missiles to strike Russia
News broke over the weekend that US President Joe Biden had given Ukraine permission to use longer-range weapons provided by Washington to strike deeper into Russian territory. It’s been regarded as a major shift for the US’ Ukraine policy.
The White House hasn’t officially confirmed the reports, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky released a (not-so-)cryptic message on Sunday evening stating: “Such things are not announced. The rockets will speak for themselves.” So, yeah, it looks pretty official.
Reports suggest Biden’s decision came after North Korea sent thousands of troops to Russia to bolster Moscow’s war effort, and is timed just months before a new administration (with potentially different views on the war) takes over the Oval Office.
Russia predictably didn’t take the news well. Though Vladimir Putin has yet to personally comment, a Kremlin spokesperson warned the decision was “adding fuel to the fire”, and risked further escalating the conflict.
Wait, which weapons are we talking about?
You’ll be forgiven for losing track of the various weapons systems in play. To recap, the US had given Ukraine permission to use its High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) against targets in Russian territory earlier this year, after Moscow launched an offensive that threatened the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
The HIMARS munitions currently used only have a range of ~80km (50 mi). Compare that to the new weapons system, the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) which can reach targets as far away as 300km (190 mi), and could significantly level-up Ukrainian fighting efforts.
Kyiv has used ATACMS previously, but only against targets in Russian-occupied Ukraine (and not Russia proper).
What does this mean for Ukraine?
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It’s a significant development militarily. Ukraine can now use the ATACMS on targets within the strategic Kursk Oblast region, which is the Russian region where Ukrainian troops made inroads during a surprise offensive last August, and where Russia has moved the recently-deployed 10,000 North Korean troops. Moscow is now reportedly preparing to launch an counter-offensive to reconquer the lost territory.
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But its impacts on the broader tide of the war might be limited. While there are hundreds of Russian military targets within ATACMS range, Russia has already relocated some of its strategically-critical weaponry to positions outside the missiles’ range, in anticipation of such a move.
Where ATACMS can help Ukraine is in the deterrence and leverage it provides:
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Ukraine can gain and retain some strategic advantage by using the systems to strengthen its position in Kursk ahead of any future negotiations.
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It could also up Ukrainian morale and dissuade North Korea from sending any more troops (new figures floating around put the total prospective deployment as high as 100,000 NK troops).
Zooming out, the US’ policy shift is likely to have a domino effect by opening the door for other Ukraine allies to follow suit.
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France and the UK, which have expressed support for Ukraine's long-range requests, are expected to be the first to announce a policy change.
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As for Germany, it might take Chancellor Olaf Scholz more time to make the shift (if at all). He’s still opposed to sending German-made long-range missiles to Ukraine over fears such a move would drag NATO further into the conflict. However, with fresh elections on the horizon and NATO’s future potentially looking shaky, Germany could still change course.
So, now we wait and see. We’ll be watching when Ukraine deploys ATACMS, what targets it selects for its first strike, and how Russia reacts. And in the midst of all this, we’ll keep an eye out 👀 for any comments from the incoming Trump Administration that might indicate (dis)satisfaction with the new US policy.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Volodymyr Zelensky has finally (kinda) gotten what he wanted. He’s led a months-long campaign urging Western governments to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike targets deep into Russian territory.
But this latest development isn’t a total win for him either: reports suggest he was irked the news had leaked before Ukraine could use the missiles on the ground, presumably neutralising any surprise factor Kyiv still had on its side. D’oh.
But more good news could be around the corner if France, the UK, and Germany step up their commitments to Kyiv’s security, quicksmart.
Also worth noting:
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Incoming US President Donald Trump has vowed to end the Russo-Ukraine War as soon as takes office, although he has not shared exactly how he plans to do so. The DC ‘blob’ (aka DC’s think tanks and analysts) reckon he’ll likely push both sides to negotiate a ceasefire deal and accept territory swaps.
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The Russo-Ukraine War entered its 1,000th day today (Tuesday).
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇮🇳 India: New Delhi has declared a state of medical emergency from toxic smog, with pollution levels hitting 26x the limit prescribed by the WHO. Authorities have announced school closures and urged people to stay home. Neighbouring Pakistan has similarly been battling the smog for weeks.
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🇫🇷 France: French farmers took to the streets yesterday (Monday), staging protests as talk of a trade deal between the EU and South America's Mercosur bloc intensify. The Mercosur bloc, which includes Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay, is eager for a deal while French farmers worry it will increase competition.
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🇻🇺 Vanuatu: Nikenike Vurobaravu, the president of Vanuatu, signed an order yesterday (Monday) to dissolve the Pacific island nation's parliament. The move comes after a period of political instability over the past 18 months, with the country cycling through three prime ministers.
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🇻🇪 Venezuela: Eleven people were arrested in Venezuela on charges connected to a fire explosion at a major gas complex last week. Venezuela's vice-president and oil minister Delcy Rodriguez said that the foreigners who collaborated on the case had fled the country.
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🇲🇱 Mali: Australian mining company Resolute (whose senior executives were detained in Mali over a week ago) agreed to resolve an alleged tax dispute by paying the militia government’s $160M demand. The company announced it would pay $80M from cash reserves and settle the rest in the coming months.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what the world’s been googling lately
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🇨🇱 Chileans are searching for ‘festival de viña 2025,’ a music festival scheduled for 23-28 February featuring Spanish-speaking icons such as Marc Anthony.
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🇷🇺 Russians were googling Vladimir Shklyarov, a famous Russian ballet dancer who died after falling off an apartment balcony on Monday in Saint Petersburg.
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Over in 🇳🇿 New Zealand, folks were looking up ‘Hīkoi mō te Tiriti’ (The March for the Treaty), a protest march which ~40,000 people are expected to join in on in Wellington today (Tuesday).
COMPETITION OF THE DAY
Forklift driving is a serious business in Germany. Credits: Wikimedia.
International lovers of obscure competitions unite! This year, the world-renowned German forklift championships opened up its doors to competitors from other countries for the first time in an effort to expand the tournament and increase its prestige. The competition organisers even renamed the tournament to the ‘Forklift World Championship’ to underscore this commitment.
While two Germans won the individual men’s and women’s titles, Belgium took out the team title, with Slovakia and the Netherlands not too far behind. 🚜
DAILY POLL
Do you think allowing Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory will be a game changer? |
Yesterday’s poll: What role does Biden have until January?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🇺🇸 He's still the president and has promises to fulfil (51%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🦆 His hands are tied, he's a lame duck… (19%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤝 Handover of power (14%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🌎 Mostly conferences, schedule keeping (14%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (Write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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🇺🇸 B.M.G: “Since day one of his administration, Biden has focussed on the big picture – how will future historians assess his legacy? Right now, he and his team are doing all they can to cement their policy priorities
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🌎 L.S: “Smile and shake hands, Joe.”
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✍️ C.D.F: “Avoid public gaffes.”
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