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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Another Hezbollah-Israel war? |
2️⃣ An unusual birthday celebration in Myanmar |
3️⃣ Taunt of the day |
Hi Intriguer. When I served in Israel, one of the toughest places to visit was actually its northern neighbour, Lebanon. To get there, one had to fly via a third location on a ‘clean’ passport, ditch all evidence of having been in Israel, and hope you didn’t accidentally leave any spare shekels in your pockets.
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The grudge is rooted in decades of conflict, unresolved disputes (including over offshore gas fields), and the presence of Hezbollah. And it’s very much live, with Israel and Hezbollah striking cross-border targets based on a finely calibrated tit-for-tat playbook and a mutual understanding of red lines. But as we explore in today’s top story, those red lines are being tested.
THE HEADLINES
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Putin does Vietnam.
The Russian President has landed in Hanoi for the second and last stop of his tour, after signing a mutual defence pact in North Korea yesterday (Wednesday). The US, which upgraded its ties with Vietnam last year, has said Putin’s visit risks normalising Russia’s international law violations.
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Canada lists Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as terrorist group.
Canada’s move to sanction the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), adding to existing sanctions against the IRGC’s overseas arms (the Quds Force), mirrors earlier moves by Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, the US and others (the UK has signalled similar plans). In response, Iran has condemned the “unwise and unconventional” step.
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Xi hints at further crackdown on military.
Speaking at a key People’s Liberation Army base in the northwestern city of Yan’an, China’s president has stressed that “there must be no place in the military for corrupt elements to hide.” Authorities have removed more than a dozen senior PLA officers (and a defence minister) over the past year, and Xi’s comments suggest there could be more to come.
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Shipping industry urges (more) action after second Red Sea sinking.
Top industry groups are calling on “states with influence in the region” to take further action to secure the Red Sea shipping lines, days after a second vessel sunk as a result of a Houthi attack. Since beginning its attacks on civilian shipping in November, the Yemeni group has targeted more than 70 vessels, sunk two, seized one, and killed at least three civilian mariners.
TOP STORY
Are we about to see another Hezbollah-Israel war?
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Israeli generals have now reportedly approved “operational plans” for a Lebanon offensive. Officials issued the statement on Tuesday night after Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Islamist group, dropped a nine-minute video of purported drone footage above military and civilian sites in Israel.
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As if that message wasn’t clear, the head of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, then popped down to the local TV studio Wednesday and spelled it out: while Hezbollah doesn’t want “total war”, nowhere in Israel will be safe in an all-out conflict.
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What a week, huh? And to quote the famous meme, that was just Wednesday.
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Hezbollah (meaning ‘Party of God’ in Arabic) is an Iran-backed Shia Islamist movement with a major presence in Lebanon (particularly along its southern border with Israel).
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It emerged out of the 1982 Lebanon War, filling the vacuum left there after Israel drove out Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) forces, who had themselves been expelled from Jordan. The final trigger for Israel’s 1982 Lebanon invasion, after years of PLO skirmishes, was actually an attempted assassination of Israel’s ambassador in London – later linked to Iraqi intelligence!
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Today, Hezbollah is so influential in Lebanon, it’s seen as “a state within a state”. It’s also seen – in whole or in part – as a terrorist organisation by 60 countries, and is widely known as an Iranian proxy.
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Then came October 7th
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The day after Hamas attacked Israel from Gaza on October 7th, Hezbollah fired rockets and artillery against Israeli sites from southern Lebanon “in solidarity with the victorious Palestinian resistance”. And Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged near-daily fire ever since, displacing ~155,000 civilians on both sides of the border, while killing hundreds in Lebanon and dozens more in Israel.
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Israel has been demanding Hezbollah pull back to create a buffer, but the group says there’ll be no deal until Israel ceases fire in Gaza. And things escalated further last week after Israeli strikes killed a senior commander of Hezbollah, which responded with hundreds of rockets and its sizzle reel of drone footage.
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So will this result in a wider war?
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Who – and we cannot stress this enough – knows.
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There are reasons to believe neither side really wants a war:
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Hezbollah knows it’d be deeply unpopular in Lebanon, where folks are already grappling with an economic meltdown and political paralysis, and
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Israel is wary of a second front against a formidable foe, which claims to have ~150,000 rockets and ~100,000 experienced troops (more than Lebanon’s army).
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So against that backdrop, it’s quite possible this is all signalling by Israel and/or Hezbollah to shape events in their favour: for Israel, that means pressuring Hezbollah into some kind of settlement to stabilise their shared border; for Hezbollah, that means pressuring Israel into some kind of ceasefire with Hamas.
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But, it’s also possible this is now becoming something more.
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Israel’s calculations around its own security have shifted dramatically since October
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The displacement and destruction along the border is already significant
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Recent polls suggest 60% of Israelis want to move against Hezbollah, and
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Some public figures argue Israel can’t be secure until that happens.
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But for now at least, France is still pushing its 10-day de-escalation plan, and US presidential envoy Amos Hochstein is re-joining the shuttle diplomacy in the region, calling for “urgent” de-escalation.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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There’s plenty of history here, but it offers us mixed lessons.
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Israel has invaded Lebanon twice in pursuit of the PLO (1978 and 1982) and fought another three times in pursuit of Hezbollah (1993, 1996, and 2006). The last deadly war, after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers and killed several others, basically ended in a draw – the UN ordered Israel’s withdrawal and a buffer zone on the Lebanese side of the border (which Hezbollah routinely violates, despite the presence of UN peacekeepers).
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Israel’s military has sought to learn lessons from that conflict, but so has Hezbollah (with Iran’s help). And the result is that, realistically, any future major war along the border will now be much more devastating than the last.
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Also worth noting:
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In its 2009 manifesto, Hezbollah sought to tone down its original ambition to create an Islamic Republic in southern Lebanon (home to a substantial Christian population), but reiterated that Israel remains a “constant threat” and its US ally is an “enemy of our nation”.
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In Nasrallah’s Wednesday video address, he also threatened Cyprus for the first time, warning the Mediterranean island and EU member against allowing Israel to launch operations from its territory. Cyprus and Israel have strengthened their defence ties in recent years.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇮🇳 India: US lawmakers have travelled to India to meet the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama. The US has long accused China of human rights violations against the Tibetan people, while China considers the Dalai Lama a “separatist”.
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🇬🇧 UK: Climate protesters have spray painted the ancient Stonehenge monument with cornstarch-based orange colouring. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called the group “pathetic,” while the activists say the stunt was in response to inadequate climate pledges by the opposition Labour Party, which is favoured to win the July 4th elections.
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🇲🇲 Myanmar: Thousands of protestors marched in cities across Myanmar on the 79th birthday of ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi yesterday (Wednesday). The country’s former elected leader and Nobel laureate has been in detention since the military ousted her in a 2021 coup.
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🇪🇨 Ecuador: Quito has announced it’s suspending an agreement with China that waives visas for travellers to Ecuador, pointing to a “worrying” increase in irregular migration. A growing number of US-bound migrants from China had been starting their journey in Ecuador, one of two South American countries that was allowing visa-free entry for China.
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🇸🇩 Sudan: The UN says it’s managed to get some aid into South Darfur, where fighting between rival armed groups continues. International organisations say local communities need more help, and there are warnings the region could be headed towards another genocide.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what we’re reading on the internet… about the internet
TAUNT OF THE DAY
Credits: @OneFootball
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With so much conflict around the world, it’s nice to see countries manage their differences through the time-tested medium of LoLs. You see, Germany is hosting the Euro 2024 soccer championships right now, and amusingly, fans have started taunting each other with food-based insults:
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Albanians started snapping uncooked spaghetti in front of Italians
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Austrians then tore apart some baguettes in front of the French
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A Swiss fan then taunted Hungarians by mocking goulash (above), and
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Poles then dunked on the Dutch, declaring “sausage is better than gouda” 🔥
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But there’s always someone who takes the joke too far, right? Earlier this year, British fans unfurled a shocking banner declaring that Totti, one of Italy’s legendary players, “loves pineapple on pizza”. 🔥🔥
DAILY POLL
Do you think a wider war along the Israel-Lebanon border is imminent? |
Yesterday’s poll: Is Pyongyang and Moscow’s relationship for real?
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🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨 🤝 Yep, they both reap benefits (45%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ❌ Nope, they just have a common enemy (46%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (9%)
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Your two cents:
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❌ F.F: “Mutual need does not equate to mutual interest.”
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🤝 F.R: “Russia needs weapons, North Korea needs an ally against the international community in any form. As Russia slowly becomes more and more isolated, it will naturally gravitate towards other nations that have also been shunned by the international community.”
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✍️ R: “Yes the relationship is very real and shows the limitations and frankly dangers of the sanction policy. Sanctions have been overused and underwhelming in their effects. And as a result countries like Russia and North Korea build economic alliances that can counterbalance the effects of those sanctions.”
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