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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ India’s big electoral plot twist |
2️⃣ Another meme-stock bet |
3️⃣ Flag of the day |
Hi Intriguer. The first plot twist I ever saw was in the 1995 crime-thriller, The Usual Suspects. I staggered out of that cinema as a kid, clutching my empty M&Ms packet, questioning everything I thought I knew.
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Incidentally, the film’s screenwriter (Christopher McQuarrie) remains one of my favourites, and he’s now earning Kardashian amounts of cash as Tom Cruise’s go-to filmmaker.
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Anyway, many are now questioning what they thought they knew because India just delivered an electoral plot-twist. It’s big news but, like we used to do in our former diplomat lives, we’ll focus today on what you need to know.
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By the way – our less click-baity vibes mean we rely more on word-of-mouth to grow, so if you could help share Intrigue with your friends, we’d love you for it (even more than we do already).
THE HEADLINES
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Biden suggests Netanyahu is prolonging war for political reasons.
When asked whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is prolonging the war in Gaza to hold onto power, US President Joe Biden told Time magazine: “there is every reason for people to draw that conclusion”. The comment comes amid opposition from Netanyahu’s more hard-line government members over the US ceasefire plan. Biden later moved to walk back his remarks.
US House passes ICC sanction bill.
The House has passed a bill to sanction key International Criminal Court officials after the international body’s top prosecutor requested arrest warrants for Israeli (and Hamas) leaders last month. The White House opposes the bill, which looks unlikely to pass the Senate.
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UK’s first election debate ‘a tie’.
Snap polls suggest viewers called it a tie between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Labour challenger Keir Starmer, though Labour has a significant lead ahead of the July 4th UK general election. It was the first of three debates.
Big names back new Texas stock exchange.
Major players like Blackrock and Citadel are backing a group seeking to launch a new national stock exchange in Texas. The project has already raised $120M from over 20 investors, and is seeking to rival the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq with a “more CEO-friendly” approach.
Indonesian currency drops to four-year low.
The plunge prompted Indonesia’s central bank to support the rupiah, and comes as emerging market currencies feel the pressure from delays in US rate cuts.
TikTok hackers hit high-profile accounts.
It’s unclear whodunnit, or if it’s the same hackers who breached 700,000 TikTok accounts in Turkey last year, though the latest targets include CNN, Sony and Paris Hilton. US lawmakers cited security and privacy concerns (among others) when passing the TikTok divest-or-ban law in May.
TOP STORY
Modi claims a third term but needs other parties to govern
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi flashes the victory sign. Image source: Getty Images
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India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed a third term last night (Tuesday), as his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) snapped up 240 seats in the Lok Sabha (the lower house). And that result is much slimmer than everyone expected.
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Electoral workers have spent six weeks schlepping from remote villages to sprawling metropolises and up to the Himalayas – all through a record-melting heatwave – to collect 642 million votes from India’s 970 million eligible voters.
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India then counted those 642 million votes in a single day (yesterday), thanks to a decentralised process that’s been tweaked over the decades.
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The magic number to win a majority in the Lok Sabha is 272. And while there were 744 parties in the mix, there were really two key competing alliances:
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National Democratic Alliance (NDA): Modi’s pro-Hindu BJP drives this alliance, and won 240 seats (down from 303 last time). Other smaller parties then brought the bloc’s total back to 292.
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Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance: This group, with its chefs-kiss acronym (I.N.D.I.A.), is home to India’s opposition Congress Party, a ‘big tent’ movement once led by Mahatma Gandhi on the path to independence.
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It’s now led by Rahul Gandhi, the son and grandson of former PMs (though no relation to Mahatma). He ran on a ‘save the constitution’ platform, arguing Modi was eroding India’s secular and democratic foundations. And he won 99 seats (double his last haul), while his 25 partners lifted the bloc’s total to 234.
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So Modi’s coalition beat the opposition 292-234, and that’s that, right?
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Almost. There’s some breathlessness right now being driven by three factors.
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First, there were big surprises in some battleground states:
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Uttar Pradesh: Modi got crushed in his heartland and India’s most populous state (245 million people), losing around half his seats there
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Maharashtra: He got crushed in the state with India’s top economy ($450B) and most populous city (Mumbai), again losing half his seats, and
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West Bengal: He also got crushed in this crucial state of 100 million people, losing around a third of his seats there.
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Second, Modi’s win was way below expectations set by polls, exit polls, and Modi himself, who tempted fate with the slogan: “this time, beyond 400” [seats].
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And third, Modi’s two main coalition partners only just joined him, are secular, and have a history of switching sides. So they’ll drive a hard bargain, and could theoretically jump ship to join the opposition, which is reportedly offering very senior roles in return.
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But reports are just breaking that they’ve now pledged their support for a third Modi term, which could start this weekend.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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Let’s quickly explore three questions.
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First, why did this happen? India’s famously raucous media will pore over this for months, but here’s our initial sense:
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With inflation and inequality so high, he got hit by anti-incumbency
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With expectations so high, he got hit by complacency
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With his authoritarian streak running high, he got hit by democracy, and yet
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His national popularity wasn’t high enough to ease local grievances.
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Second, what does this mean for Modi?
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He’s still one of the world’s most popular leaders, and likely still helming the world’s fastest-growing major economy into a record-tying third term. But he over-promised and under-delivered, so his aura of invincibility is now gone.
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Third and finally, what does this mean for India? We can expect to see:
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An emboldened opposition, media, civil society, and other more independent voices that’ve limped through Modi’s last term
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That might mean a more consultative term ahead, tapping the brakes on Modi’s hard-line Hindu nationalist urges, but also…
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That new dash of consultation might tap the brakes on India’s much-needed economic reforms. Though we hasten to add: while he had limited reform success even when flying solo, some predecessors (like PM Rao) have shown that coalitions can still make big changes.
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So to finish? Maybe spare a thought for Pradeep Gupta, India’s well-known pollster, who wept on live national TV as his (and everyone else’s) forecasts proved wrong. Though that’s the fun of this delicate thing we call democracy.
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Also worth noting:
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Modi has never held a solo press conference as prime minister.
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Various world leaders have now congratulated Modi, though the US is playing it safe and waiting until coalition talks conclude.
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India’s stock market crashed 6% yesterday as it emerged Modi would need to govern in a coalition for the first time. Interestingly, parts of Adani, a conglomerate with close Modi ties, saw their shares surge 240% in the year to yesterday, when the group then crashed 18%.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇵🇰 Pakistan: A court has acquitted former leader Imran Khan of leaking state secrets, though the cricket star is still in prison on ‘unlawful marriage’ allegations. Khan, who’s still popular, has been in jail since his arrest in 2023 on various charges he dismisses as politically motivated.
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🇳🇴 Norway: European gas prices jumped 13% on Monday following an outage at a gas processing plant in Norway. The EU now imports around 30% of its gas from Norway, meaning a supply shock there risks having a disproportionate impact on gas prices across Europe.
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🇦🇺 Australia: Canberra has unveiled plans to allow UK, US, Canadian, and various Pacific Island nationals to serve in Australia’s military in return for fast-tracked citizenship. Australia has struggled to meet its recruitment targets, while voicing concerns about China in the region.
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🇺🇸 US: The US has urged the UN Security Council to pass a resolution supporting President Biden’s three-phase ceasefire plan for Gaza. The Council previously voted in favour of an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan, though its orders went unanswered.
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🇳🇬 Nigeria: Top labour unions have shut down Nigeria’s power grid to protest the lack of a new minimum wage. Since taking office last year, President Bola Tinubu has enacted reforms aimed at stabilising Nigeria’s economy, but they’ve also exacerbated Nigeria’s cost of living crisis.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what we’re reading on the latest meme-stock saga
FLAG OF THE DAY
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You’d be forgiven for thinking this is a cool piece of modern art by a SoHo visionary called ‘Clove’, currently being auctioned by Sotheby’s with a reserve price of $32M. But it’s actually Greenland’s flag.
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You’ll note it involves two horizontal stripes: one white (representing snow and ice) and one red (representing the ocean). Then off to the left is a red semicircle above for the setting sun, balanced below by a white semicircle for the icebergs.
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By the way, Greenland is a Danish autonomous territory, a status reflected in its flag’s colours, which are the same as those of the Danish flag.
DAILY POLL
Do you think these electoral results are a ‘loss’ for Modi? |
Yesterday’s poll: Should the US have allowed Shein to list in New York?
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yes, chill (21%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 No, Shein is too shady (77%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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👎 I.T: “It’s not even really about being shady – it’s not hidden that its clothes are unsustainably cheap and add massively to fast fashion’s negative impact on the environment and garment workers.”
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👍 E.K.H: “If we want to actually do something about the waste, pollution, and labour abuses of the fashion industry, there’s plenty of American companies we can start with. And listing on the NYSE might’ve been a chance to exert some leverage.”