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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ What’s next after South Africa’s elections? |
2️⃣ Don’t insult the king of Thailand |
3️⃣ Sports team of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I was in South Africa late last year, and one of the many things that struck me about the country was its vibrancy – particularly in its Gen Z / Alpha demographic.
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The other thing I noted was how dim most views were about the ruling party (the ANC). At some point in all political life cycles, the entity that was once viewed as the fresh, anti-establishment force becomes the establishment itself, and that’s partly what we’re witnessing in South Africa’s elections.
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We dive into that for today’s top story.
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PS – Our special edition on Mexico’s election will hit inboxes this weekend, for anyone who’s shared Intrigue with two or more friends (just use your unique referral code down below)!
THE HEADLINES
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14 convicted in Hong Kong’s biggest security case.
A Hong Kong court has found 14 pro-democracy activists guilty of subversion, meaning they could face sentences of up to life in prison. They’re part of a wider case against 47 prominent activists: two were acquitted after pleading not guilty, while the remaining 31 have pleaded guilty and will be sentenced at a later date.
Israel seizes entire Gaza land border.
The Israeli military has seized the remaining portion of the Gaza-Egypt border, accusing Hamas of using the 14km-long ‘Philadelphi Corridor’ to smuggle weapons into Gaza. Meanwhile, Israel’s national security adviser has indicated the war will continue until at least the end of the year.
FBI takes down world’s biggest botnet.
The FBI says it’s taken down a network of 19 million infected computers that were being leased out to commit cybercrimes, including financial fraud and identity theft. The botnet operated across 190 countries.
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Iran opens candidate registrations for presidential election.
Iranian authorities have opened registration for those looking to replace the former president, who was killed in a helicopter crash earlier this month. To enter the race, candidates must be between 40 and 75 years old, and hold at least a master’s degree (plus not be disqualified by the Supreme Leader).
More media outlets strike deals with OpenAI.
The Atlantic and Vox Media have announced new deals with OpenAI, to feature content in ChatGPT queries and help train its algorithm. The Atlantic’s senior editor Damon Beres says it’s a “devil’s bargain”. OpenAI has entered similar agreements with The Wall Street Journal, Politico, and the Financial Times.
TOP STORY
The ANC is losing its grip on South Africa
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Counting is now well underway in South Africa, where millions of voters cast their ballots yesterday (Wednesday) in the country’s most competitive general election in three decades.
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And intriguingly, the long-dominant African National Congress (ANC) looks set to lose its majority in parliament, rattling South African politics.
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The ANC emerged out of a liberation movement fighting South Africa’s decades-long Apartheid system of government. After 27 years in prison, its revered leader Nelson Mandela steered talks to end white-minority rule, then led the party to a historic victory in the country’s first post-Apartheid elections in 1994.
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The ANC has run South Africa ever since. But since peaking with two-thirds of the vote in 2004, support for the party has declined steadily, with polls projecting a vote well below 50% for the first time this election. And it gets worse when you remember turnout has dropped from 89.3% in 1999 to 66% at the last election.
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What happened?
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South Africa has the continent’s most advanced economy, though that title disguises a range of issues that’ve been at the forefront of voters’ minds:
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Unemployment is at 33%, and that figure jumps to 46% for youth
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Growth has been in reverse, with GDP per capita decreasing since 2011
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Crime costs South Africa $40B per year, equivalent to 10% of its GDP
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Inequality is the world’s worst by some measures, as South Africa grapples with its Apartheid legacy
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Corruption keeps generating headlines, like the case of the president storing piles of cash in his sofa (he denies any wrongdoing), and
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Energy crises keep rolling on, with households and firms still facing ‘load-shedding’ after decades without enough infrastructure investment.
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So against that backdrop, voters have increasingly held the ANC to account, and the country’s balance of power now looks to be shifting as a result.
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What’s next?
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Either way, the ANC will still be the biggest party in parliament, so it’s likely to remain in power. Likewise, that means ANC leader and the country’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, should get himself five more years on the job, though a poor result could leave him vulnerable to a challenge from within his own party.
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We should know for sure over the weekend if he’s lost his majority in parliament. If so, he’ll have to share power with others, and could face a more energised, competitive parliament, bringing tougher negotiations and more scrutiny.
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And as Ramaphosa considers coalition partners, each possible kingmaker will want to take South Africa in a vastly different direction:
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The pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA), with significant white voter support, is tracking in second place. While its brand rests on opposing the ANC, it’s not ruling out a deal.
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The Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), pushing for the wholesale redistribution of wealth and land from South Africa’s white minority to its black majority, is tracking equal third. But ANC insiders say they’d only partner with the EFF as a last resort.
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Former leader Jacob Zuma’s new populist party, the uMkhonto we Sizwe (‘spear of the nation’), is also tracking third, splitting the ANC vote. He’s popular in his home province and will drive a hard bargain, but brings plenty of baggage (corruption soared under his watch).
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Or if the ANC only needs a little help to retain a majority, it could turn to some of South Africa’s 48 other smaller parties.
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Once we know the final vote, the new parliament must then convene within 14 days to (re)elect the nation’s president. So for the first time in 30 years, with coalition negotiations likely up next, the road ahead for the ANC isn’t so straightforward.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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So what does this mean for everyone else? Here are two angles to consider.
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First, many investors had been assuming the ANC would do a deal with the second-placed DA party above. From a boardroom perspective, that’s a dream outcome: stability, with some new business-friendly ideas. But uncertainty has now pushed the rand to its lowest level in a month, and sentiment will collapse if the ANC brings the Marxists onboard.
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Second, South Africa has been throwing its weight around globally, whether lodging the genocide case against Israel, or hosting last year’s BRICS summit. So will this election change that approach? The DA has, for example, distinguished itself from the ANC by showing support for Israel and Ukraine, and taking more of a pro-Western approach to the world.
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But foreign policy is one of the few areas where voters still give the ANC high marks, so it’s hard to see the ruling party handing over the keys to the foreign ministry at all, let alone to someone pledging a big pivot.
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Either way, the longer any coalition negotiations drag on, the more likely we may be in for a new era of political gridlock ahead.
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Also worth noting:
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Earlier this month, South Africa’s constitutional court upheld an electoral ban on former leader Jacob Zuma due to his prior conviction for contempt of court. His new party still ran other candidates, so he’s still a potential kingmaker.
A MESSAGE FROM PROJECT SYNDICATE
Your Gateway to Global Perspectives: $1 Trial for 3 Months
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: Tashkent is poised to rearm and modernise its military with assistance from Russia, following yesterday’s joint announcement while Putin was in town. The Central Asian nation is ramping up defence spending in response to regional turmoil and domestic terrorism threats.
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🇧🇾 Belarus: EU member Hungary’s foreign minister has visited Belarus, despite the EU sanctioning Belarus for political repression and allowing Russia to invade Ukraine from its territory. Hungary’s top diplomat used the visit to sign a nuclear energy deal.
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🇹🇭 Thailand: Authorities have indicted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra on accusations he defamed the monarchy nine years ago. The populist’s return from exile last year looked like a truce with the establishment, but these latest charges suggest he still has enemies.
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🇻🇪 Venezuela: Caracas has revoked an invite for the EU to observe the country’s elections in July, blaming European sanctions. Former diplomat Edmundo González is now the main opposition candidate after authorities loyal to strongman Nicolas Maduro disqualified others.
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🇸🇩 Sudan: Sudan’s military has rejected a US proposal to return to Saudi-hosted peace talks, with Sudan now home to one in eight of the world’s internally displaced people. UN officials have warned of genocide as a rival paramilitary group seizes power across Darfur.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what’s happening in other worlds
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Art: A Danish-born artist’s work featuring live dogs has caused a stir in Mexico City, sparking a local investigation.
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Society: The famous Chicago house used in the iconic 1990 comedy Home Alone is now on the market for a cool $5.25M.
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Science: Israeli researchers have found that folks with a recent tetanus vaccine are less likely to develop Parkinson’s disease, suggesting a bacterial element to the illness.
SPORTS TEAM OF THE DAY
Members of PNG’s national rugby league squad, the Kumuls. Credits: National Rugby League.
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Australia’s national men’s rugby league tournament is set to get its 18th team. And intriguingly, word is the team will come from neighbouring Papua New Guinea (PNG), with $450M in backing from the Australian government.
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Rugby league is easily the most popular sport in PNG, and the country’s prime minister has said a PNG team joining Australia’s competition “will provide a platform to unite the most diverse nation on Planet Earth”.
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But why the massive investment from Australia? Apart from the community and economic benefits for a neighbour, Canberra and its allies also see this new team as a soft power play to counter China’s growing presence in PNG.
DAILY POLL
What do you think about coalition governments? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think Ukraine should be able to hit back at launch sites in Russia?
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💣 Yes, it’s only fair (87%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📈 No, it’ll just escalate things further (10%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
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Your two cents:
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💣 D.D: “As long as a nuclear war is avoided, Ukraine should be allowed to fight in all legal manners.”
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✍️ J.F: “They can, but if they use American arsenal it could lead to a worldwide confrontation.”
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📈G.S: “Zelenskyy ought to take the high road and stick with a defensive posture as he claims the world’s funding is for.”
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