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Todayโs newsletter supported by: |
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Hi there Intriguer.ย When you think of former British leader Theresa May, do the words โcoolโ or โedgyโ come to mind? Okay, us neither. But her rather hip parliamentary portrait just dropped and, honestly, itโs got us questioning everything we thought we knew.
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Todayโs briefing is a 4 min read:
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๐ Leaders gather in Southeast Asia.
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๐ฒ๐ป Itโs election time in the Maldives.
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โ Plus: A mathematical map, how the papers are covering the Erdoฤan-Putin meeting, and something spicy for your ears.
โฑ๏ธ Around the world in sixty seconds
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๐ฆ๐ฒย Armenia: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said Armeniaโs decision to depend on Russia for security guarantees was a โstrategic mistakeโ, given what he said was aggression from neighbouring Azerbaijan. The Kremlin has rejected Pashinyanโs claims.
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๐ธ๐ชย Sweden: Two former oil execs are on trial in Sweden for their alleged role in a series of war crimes committed in Sudan between 1999 and 2003. Prosecutors say Lundin Oil had asked Khartoum to secure a potential oil field in what is now South Sudan, knowing this would lead to atrocities.
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๐ฎ๐ณย India: Narendra Modiโs government could be planning to submit a parliamentary resolution to change the countryโs name to โBharatโ, according to local media. Supporters of the move say the name โIndiaโ was introduced by British colonialists.
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๐จ๐บย Cuba: Havana has reportedly found a human trafficking scheme pressuring Cubans to fight for Russia in Ukraine. Authorities say theyโre working to neutralise the network, and have reiterated their countryโs neutral stance in the conflict.
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๐ฌ๐ฆย Gabon: General Brice Oligui Nguema, who came to power in a coup last week, has pledged to return the country to civilian rule. Heโs not yet offered a timeline.
๐ Southeast Asia | Geopolitics
ASEAN is having an identity crisis
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The ten-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) kicked off its annual summit of leaders in Jakarta, Indonesia yesterday (Tuesday).
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The three-day agenda is jam-packed, including talks on:
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๐ฒ๐ฒ The ongoing violence in Myanmar (an ASEAN member)
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๐ Chinaโs expansive claims in the South China Sea, and
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โ๏ธ Regional tensions between the US and China.
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But the bloc has long struggled to find solutions on any of these issues.
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Yesterday, members agreed to strip Myanmar and its ruling junta of the blocโs rotating leadership role in 2026, and instead designated the Philippines as leader that year.
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But ASEANโs other punitive measures against the junta in the past – like barring its leaders from summits – have had little impact so far.
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And if Myanmar seems complicated, US-China competition is a doozy.
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Last week, Manila suggested President Marcos would lead an effort to reprimand China for its newly-published map that seems to expand Beijingโs claims in the South China Sea. But the draft ASEAN statement doing the rounds in Jakarta simply calls for โstability in the maritime sphereโ.
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Intrigue’s take: If ASEAN canโt agree to push back on a direct outside challenge to membersโ own borders, what exactly can it agree on?
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For years, the blocโs members have looked to China on the economy, and looked to the US on security. And Indonesian President Joko Widodo yesterday urged powers not to โturn our ship into an arena for rivalryโ.ย
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But Mr. President, that ship has already sailed.
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Also worth noting:
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Several ASEAN members have called on the bloc to rethink its โnon-interferenceโ policy to address the crisis in Myanmar.
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Various ASEAN partners attend each year, including Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and the US. Both US President Biden and Chinese President Xi have opted to skip this yearโs summit.
๐ฐ How newspapers coveredโฆ
The meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoฤan and Russian President Vladimir Putin
Istanbul, Turkey |
โTรผrkiye believes grain initiative can be revived soon: Erdoฤanโ |
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โRussia wonโt renew grain deal until demands met, Putin tells Erdoganโ |
Moscow, Russia |
โPutin-Erdogan meeting successful, all important issues on agenda discussedโ |
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Todayโs newsletter is supported by: Morning Brew
4 Million People Start the Day with Morning Brew
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This daily email delivers the latest news from Wall Street to Silicon Valley. Business news doesnโt have to be boringโฆmake your mornings more enjoyable, for free.
๐ฒ๐ป Maldives | Politics
A small but crucial election in the Maldives
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Maldivians will head to the polls on Saturday to choose their next president from a competitive pool of eight candidates, including the incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih.
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Hereโs why weโre watching:
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๐๏ธ The 1200 islands that comprise the Maldives are located in the middle of the Indian Ocean, near vital shipping lanes
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๐ฎ๐ณ๐จ๐ณ This strategic location attracts interest from foreign powers, whoโve long competed for influence in the archipelago, and
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๐ณ๏ธ This is the fourth and most competitive election since the Maldives became a multiparty democracy in 2008
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And while the campaign issues are mostly domestic, the countryโs elections have had a broader impact lately:
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๐จ๐ณ Former President Yameen (2013-2018) pursued a pro-China line, pulling the country out of the Commonwealth and signing its first-ever free trade agreement with Beijing, but then
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๐ฎ๐ณ๐บ๐ธ President Solih won power in 2018 and pulled a quick U-turn, re-joining the Commonwealth, pursuing an โIndia firstโ foreign policy, and signing a defence agreement with Washington
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Intrigueโs take: With ~280,000 eligible voters choosing among eight candidates from splintered parties, anything could happen. Thereโs a decent chance weโll move to a second round later this month.
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And more than ever, the world will be watching.
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Also worth noting:
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Former President Yameen was sentenced in December to 11 years in prison for money laundering and corruption.
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The head of the Maldivian electoral commission was ousted in July, raising objections from the opposition.
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Some candidates have raised concerns around the countryโs defence cooperation with India.
โ Extra Intrigue
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๐ณ๏ธ Poll time!
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What do you think the future looks like for the ASEAN bloc? |
๐บ๏ธ Map of the day
Credits: Rohan Chabukswar and Kushal Mukherjee
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Ever wondered how far you could drive in a straight line without hitting a major body of water? Well, mathematicians Rohan Chabukswa and Kushal Mukherjee have got you covered: just start in Sagres, Portugal and keep going until you reach Jinjiang, China. This 11,241km straight line goes through 15 countries (plus presumably quite a few random walls, cliffs, and houses).
Yesterdayโs poll: Do you think carbon credits are a viable solution for Africa?
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ค Yes, they generate environmentally-friendly income (23%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย ๐ช No, they’re a pretext for continued pollution elsewhere (74%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (4%)
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Your two cents:
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๐ชย A.R.F: โTheyโre the white flag of entitled polluting practices, which only alleviate moral obligation in theory vs. the required practice as our climate heads further towards catastrophe.โ
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๐คย J.L: โThe argument that it eases pollution elsewhere is nonsensical โ those emissions are driven and will be stopped by non-financial factors. This at least transfers some wealth to affected areas.โ