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Today’s briefing: |
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Sponsored by:  |
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Good morning Intriguer. Journey with me back to early 2015:
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Mohammed bin Salman was still languishing in obscurity as one of the ailing Saudi king’s hundreds of nephews
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Ahmed al-Sharaa was running the Al-Qaeda branch in Syria and trying to topple the firmly entrenched Assad regime, and
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Donald Trump was just wrapping his final season of The Apprentice, the one when Kenya and Brandi got into that big pie fight.
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If you’d told anyone back then that these three men would one day shake hands as world leaders, nobody would’ve believed you. But that’s what just happened in Riyadh, and today’s briefing dives into just why it matters.
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PS – ¿Hablas español? ¡Check out our weekly edition in Spanish!
Number of the day
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0.7%
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That’s how much the UK economy grew in the first three months of the year. While these numbers beat most forecasts, they don’t yet reflect Trump’s tariffs (or new UK taxes).
Syrians celebrate sanctions relief
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Syrian social media is now awash with photoshopped red ‘Make Syria Great Again’ hats and AI-generated pics of a Trump Tower in Damascus, as locals rejoice over President Trump’s announcement that he’ll drop all sanctions against post-Assad Syria.
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“I will be ordering the cessation of sanctions against Syria in order to give them a chance at greatness…now it’s their time to shine,” he announced on the Saudi leg of his Gulf trip, bringing folks to their feet in a standing ovation.
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Why?
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For Syria’s al-Sharaa, this means…
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A revived economy (thawing Syria’s assets, currency, and investor confidence)
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A chance to rebuild infrastructure (folks there only get a few hours of power a day), and
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Normalised ties with a superpower, sending a powerful signal to everyone else.
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Trump later made the remark, “Oh, what I do for the [Saudi] crown prince!” which suggests a) this was partly a favour to the Saudis, and b) the US probably asked for something in return. Leading us to…
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For America’s Trump, this means…
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Another Abraham Accords win? Later aboard Air Force One, Trump suggested Syria’s al-Sharaa will now recognise Israel (though details remain TBC).
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US troop withdrawal? Trump has wanted to get US troops out of Syria since his first term, but he needs al-Sharaa to work with Syria’s US-backed Kurds (the SDF) and help them contain ISIS — al-Sharaa signed a deal with the SDF back in March.
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Boxing out Iran and Russia? Full re-engagement with Syria helps the US keep the pro-Assad Iranians out, and could also curb Russia’s weakened presence.
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A friend in Erdoğan? Al-Sharaa seized power with help from neighbouring Turkey, whose President Erdoğan now arguably has the most at stake (economically, militarily, and strategically) in al-Sharaa’s success. So this big Trump announcement is also a major win for Erdoğan.
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But of course for every winner, there are others wishing al-Sharaa and his merry band, who’ve variously dabbled in jihadism, weren’t suddenly being elevated to global standing.
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Israel has continued to accuse Syria of persecuting the Druze minority, partly using that as justification to hit Syrian targets and push further into the Golan Heights. So Netanyahu will now be peeved at Trump a) skipping Israel this trip, and b) instead legitimising the same guy he’s just spent a month warning against.
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Iraq is no fan of al-Sharaa either, for reasons spanning theology, history (he did time in Iraq’s infamous US-run Camp Bucca prison), law (there’s still an Iraqi warrant for his arrest over terrorism), and geopolitics (he pulled out of this weekend’s Arab League summit after several Iraq-aligned Arab states objected).
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Even in the US, you’ll recall that players like Trump’s spymaster (Gabbard) don’t buy al-Sharaa’s story of jihadi-turned-statesman.
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Anyway, that’s why Trump’s big announcement is behind some big emotions right now.
Intrigue’s Take
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We flagged earlier this week that the Saudis really wanted US nuclear tech and maybe another big US defence deal, but the crown prince (MBS) seems to have bagged neither.
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One thing he did get, however, was Trump’s big Syria announcement happening on Saudi (rather than Qatari) soil. The prince will be chalking that up as a win, not only because of his own security and economic interests in a thriving Syria, or even any poetry in al-Sharaa’s own Saudi birth (like lots of Syrian elites) — but also because of how it quenches the crown prince’s ambition to be the region’s power player, while also helping him further box out long-time regional rival, Iran.
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But we also wonder whether Trump’s decision to give the Saudis this particular win might’ve been in hopes that Syria potentially recognising Israel and joining the Abraham Accords might ease the way for the ultimate foreign policy prize of all: the Saudis doing so next (maybe in return for that US nuclear tech after all). In the Middle East’s ultra-competitive game of influence, nothing comes for free.
Today’s newsletter is sponsored by Cytonics
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No Rate Cut Can Reverse Joint Degeneration
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Interest rates won’t stop cartilage from breaking down. And economic policy won’t restore mobility to aging joints. That’s why Cytonics is focused where it matters: fixing osteoarthritis at the molecular level.
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Our lead candidate, CYT-108, is based on a protease inhibitor derived from a naturally occurring human protein. In preclinical and early clinical testing, it’s shown promise as a disease-modifying therapy.
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With Phase 1 complete and a deep IP moat in place, we’re advancing toward a Phase 2 trial—and inviting investors to join us before institutional capital floods in.
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Because aging joints don’t wait for the next FOMC meeting.
Discover the therapy that moves forward—regardless of rates
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
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🇮🇷 IRAN – Tehran ready to sign nuclear deal, top aide says. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: That proposal sounds a lot like the earlier ‘JCPOA’ deal Trump 1.0 ditched in favour of ‘maximum pressure’ to fully end both Iran’s nuclear program and its support for proxy groups like Hezbollah. But with Hezbollah now on the ropes and that deal’s main opponent (Israel’s Netanyahu) getting Trump’s cold-shoulder, Iran clearly sees an opening for Trump to take the status quo ante as a win. Trump is hinting a deal is close, and markets seem to believe him (oil prices have dropped). |
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🇷🇺 RUSSIA – Putin skips peace talks in Turkey. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: Remember it was Putin who proposed today’s direct peace negotiations in Turkey, and Ukraine’s Zelensky is there right now. It’s another reminder that Putin’s talk of peace is probably designed to string the West along while he keeps pushing. |
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🇨🇳 CHINA – Beijing criticises US-UK trade deal. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: This UK trade pact was Trump’s first, so might offer hints for the rest — if so, it suggests Trump is pivoting away from his full frontal tariff approach on China towards this kind of indirect squeeze via third-party trade deals. But other key trading partners more dependent on China won’t be so willing or able to accept these terms. |
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🇭🇺 HUNGARY – Orbán submits new NGO blacklist bill. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: Governments everywhere are bringing more scrutiny to any avenues for foreign influence. But the thing with the Russian law and others like it is a) the context (openly aimed at the West); b) the scope (catching anyone who gets any foreign cash); and c) the results (Putin has used his law to silence just about every critical voice in Russia). |
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🇰🇭 CAMBODIA – China and Cambodia kick off joint drills. |
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🇧🇴 BOLIVIA – President quits re-election race. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: It’s shaping up to be a wild campaign, with the unpopular president now urging Morales to ditch his own (unconstitutional) campaign so a young rising star can unify the left against a resurgent opposition. |
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🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA – Leader slams white South Africans resettling in US. |
Extra Intrigue
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In other worlds…
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Science: New research shows chimpanzees provide first aid to one another when wounded.
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Sports: F1 has reduced its penalties for swearing drivers following widespread outcry (presumably including some swearwords).
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Mining: There are reports DR Congo may impose further curbs on cobalt exports after its four-month export ban on the mineral expires at the end of May.
From our friends
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Read by decision-makers. Curated for changemakers. Foreign Affairs delivers insightful, authoritative analysis from global leaders in policy, business, science, and technology. From Washington to Beijing, it’s the trusted source for analysis that drives real-world decisions.
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Subscribe to Foreign Affairs today to get an insider look on today’s most important debates.
Vegetable of the day
Credits: @AusHCFJ via Twitter/X
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How about that absolute keg of a unit above. Not Australia’s high commissioner (ambassador) to Fiji. Rather, we’re talking about that 138kg (305lb) yam he’s with, which just won the annual produce contest on the island of Rotuma, a Fijian dependency.
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The 13 May festival marks Rotuma’s 1881 cession to the British Empire, plus the island’s unique culture and language.
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You see? Yes, sometimes diplomacy is about gruelling 6am starts for urgent pistachio tariff negotiations, but other times it’s about taking pictures with a yuuuge vegetable.
Today’s poll
Why do you think Trump offered sanctions relief? |
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Yesterday’s poll: If you had a spare $1M, which sector would you bet on?
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🛢️ Energy (28%)
🖥️ Tech (24%)
🚀 Aerospace & defence (31%)
💉 Healthcare (15%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
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Your two cents:
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🚀 A.O.V: “With tensions flaring as they are and Revanchist sentiments growing, in the medium term I assume we’ll be having a war in Europe or the Pacific. At least, the threat is enough for weapons manufacturing to grow.”
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🛢️ P.F: “Can’t have tech without vast new sources of power.”
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✍️ P.J.L: “Finance.”
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🛢️ F.B: “The world’s energy demand keeps rising, but fossil fuels are a dead end. Since the sun doesn’t send invoices, renewables are the future.”
✏️ Corrections corner
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Thanks to those Intriguers who pointed out we accidentally dropped yesterday’s Libya pin on Tunisia! 🤦