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IN TODAYโS EDITION
1๏ธโฃ US-Ukraine peace talks |
2๏ธโฃ Leaders on the move |
3๏ธโฃ Toy of the day |
Hi Intriguer. The headline โUS-Ukraine-Saudi ceasefire talksโ was not on my bingo cards for 2025. But then again, it joins a long list of other wild things I did not have on my bingo cards for this year.
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If youโre wondering, others included recent Intrigue headlines like the arrest of ex-Philippines president Duterte, Chinaโs open source AI โDeepSeekโ challenging US giants, and Greenland bursting onto the global geopolitical stage.
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But thatโs why Intrigue is here โ to help steer us through these global twists and turns. So letโs dive into todayโs top story on these latest Ukraine ceasefire talks.
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PS โ ยฟHablas espaรฑol? ยกCheck out our weekly edition in Spanish!
THE HEADLINES
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Trumpโs 25% global tariffs on aluminium and steel kick in.
The EU has responded with levies on $28B worth of US goods, while Trump has announced then walked back additional tariffs on Canada, whose frustration has been on full display at a major energy conference in Houston this week (attended by Intrigue).
Israel and Lebanon start border talks.
Mondayโs preliminary talks alongside US and French negotiators were an attempt to stabilise the Israel-Lebanon border area as the shaky Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire holds.
Opposition wins Greenland election.
In a shock result, the centre-right opposition Demokraatit Party has won the most votes in Greenlandโs parliamentary elections, amid heightened international curiosity spurred by Trumpโs comments about the US taking Greenland. Four of the five main parties variously support independence from Denmark, but Demokraatit wants a more gradual, long-term pathway โ itโll now lead coalition talks to form a government.
Romania court confirms Georgescu ban.
As we foreshadowed yesterday, Romaniaโs constitutional court has now confirmed the banning of populist-right candidate Cฤlin Georgescu from Mayโs rescheduled presidential elections, amid allegations of Russian meddling.
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Chinaโs โTwo Sessionsโ wrap amid leader speculation.
Chinaโs rubber-stamp legislature has approved the latest โgovernment work reportโ, repeating Beijingโs ambitious 5% growth target and boosting military spending to $245B. But all that was soon overshadowed by the unusual absence of the top legislative bodyโs chair himself โ official sources say Zhao Leji was suffering from a respiratory infection, though rumours of political intrigue will swirl until his next public appearance.
Duterte extradited to The Hague.
Former Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte is now in The Hague to face International Criminal Court allegations of crimes against humanity during his war on drugs. His daughter, now the countryโs VP and a rival of the sitting president who authorised the extradition, is travelling to the Netherlands to assist.
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TOP STORY
US-Ukraine talks produce ceasefire proposal
What are they feeding these lads in Ukraine? (L-R): Americaโs Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, then Ukraineโs Andriy Yermak, Andrii Sybiha, and Rustem Umerov.
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US and Ukrainian officials have just wrapped their peace talks in sunny Saudi Arabia, and weโre sure youโve got questions, so let’s get into it.
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First, to clarify, these peace talks were about peace between Ukraine and its Russian occupiers, though youโd be forgiven (and arguably a little right) for assuming this was also about patching things up between Kyiv and DC after that meeting in the Oval Office.
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Who was there?
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Marco Rubio led the US delegation, alongside national security advisor Mike Waltz.ย And on the other side of the white flower composition sat Ukraineโs Andriy Yermak (chief of staff), Andrii Sybiha (foreign minister), and Rustem Umerov (defence minister).
What were the pre-talk vibes?
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Things were looking rosy in the lead-up:
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President Zelensky floated the idea of a pause on aerial and naval attacks
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Yermak (his chief of staff) reiterated Ukraineโs thanks for US support, and
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Rubio told journalists he was feeling optimistic,ย though reiterated his expectation that ultimately Ukraine would struggle to regain its full pre-invasion turf.
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But what did the talks achieve?ย
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Quite a bit. According to a joint statement just released, the two sides agreed:ย
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To back a US proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire with Russia
-
To restore US intelligence sharing and security assistance
-
To negotiate โan enduring peace that provides for Ukraineโs long-term securityโ (reflecting persistent fears that Putin will simply re-arm then re-attack)
-
To finally sign their critical minerals deal (billed as a way to โguarantee Ukraineโs long-term prosperity and securityโ rather than to repay the US), and
-
They highlighted the importance of Russia returning โforcibly transferred Ukrainian childrenโ (for which Putin is still under an international arrest warrant).
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Meanwhile, Donald Trump has suggested President Zelensky is now once again welcome back at the White House, signalling a thawing since (yes) that meeting.ย
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Whatโs next?ย
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As Ukraineโs Volodymyr Zelensky puts it, โif Russia agrees, the ceasefire will take effect immediately.โ So the ballโs now in Putinโs court.
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So far, thatโs looked like another barrage of Russian missile strikes overnight, plus criticism of the ceasefire from Putinโs rubber-stamp parliament (alleging itโll be Ukraine, not Russia, who uses any pause to re-arm).
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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Zelensky has always been wary of proposed ceasefires unless they come with a) security guarantees, and b) credible monitoring โ thatโs to avoid another situation in which any ceasefire simply offers Putin a breather to freely rotate and reinforce assets then go harder once the ceasefire expires (or once he accuses Ukraine of a breach).
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Itโs unclear whether this proposed ceasefire satisfies either of those criteria, though a resumption in US intelligence sharing at least hints at how the monitoring piece could look. But then itโs unclear how willing (if at all) Trump would be to โpre-bunkโ Putinโs justifications like Biden did, let alone impose costs on any breaches.
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Anyway, our sense is Zelensky has decided that the costs of any imperfect ceasefire are currently outweighed by the benefits of a) re-positioning himself as part of the solution, and thereby b) stabilising ties with Trump, who still holds critical cards for Ukraine. Oddly enough, Putin may well make the same calculation for Russia if he agrees to this temporary ceasefire.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
-
๐ต๐ฐย Pakistan: Authorities have rescued 155 hostages taken by ethnic Baloch separatists who hijacked a train and kidnapped hundreds of passengers. The group had been demanding the release of Baloch prisoners held by Pakistan.
-
๐ต๐นย Portugal: Lawmakers have toppled Portugalโs centre-right government, likely sending voters to their third election in three years. The snap ballot could come in May, but that might still delay critical decisions around increased defence spending and privatising the countryโs main airline.
-
๐ฆ๐บย Australia: Canberra has said it wonโt impose reciprocal tariffs on US goods despite DC declining its long-time ally any exemption on steel and aluminium like it did under Trump 1.0. Responding to the tariffs, Australiaโs prime minister said “this is against the spirit of our two nations’ enduring friendship“.
-
๐จ๐ดย Colombia: The new defence minister, a retired general, has said heโll focus on reclaiming parts of Colombia taken by resurgent rebel groups. One group (FARC-EMC) just released 28 police officers and a soldier it kidnapped in the countryโs west, as President Petroโs โtotal peaceโ strategy falters.ย
-
๐ฌ๐ญย Ghana: Ghanaโs air force is reportedly struggling to maintain its fleet of Soviet-era aircraft due to Western sanctions on Russia. The supply chain disruption is apparently starting to impact local operations, including UN peacekeeping missions and critical powerline patrols.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Leaders on the move โ๏ธ
-
๐บ๐ธย US spymaster Tulsi Gabbard is travelling to Japan, India and Thailand this week, then stopping in France en route home.ย
-
๐ฎ๐ทย Iranโs defence minister, Aziz Nasirzadeh, is visiting Russian ally Belarus.
-
๐๏ธ NATO chief Mark Rutte will be in Washington from today through the 14th, meeting Trump tomorrow (Thursday) and overlapping in town with both Irelandโs PM and Ontarioโs premier.
-
๐ฑ๐ฆ The foreign minister of Laos is visiting neighbouring China this week, holding talks with his counterpart Wang Yi.
-
๐ธ๐พ The European Commission has invited Syriaโs foreign minister, al-Shaibani, to its donors conference on March 17th.
-
๐จ๐ณ And Iranian, Russian, and Chinese officials will meet in Beijing on Friday to hold talks described as focusing on Iranโs nuclear program.
TOY OF THE DAY
Credits: Lego.
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Guess the worldโs largest toymaker? Okay fine, we already stole our own thunder in the image above, but itโs Denmarkโs Lego. While the global toy market just shrunk 1% last year, Legoโs revenue grew a cool 13% as kids choose blocks over Barbies apparently.
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The firmโs top market is the US, though most of its colourful bricks in the US are made at Legoโs factory in Monterrey, Mexico. The Danes are working on a new factory in Virginia, but that wonโt be humming until 2027. And Trumpโs next tariffs are due to hit on April 2.
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Oh, and for our language nerds (you know who you are), Lego is a shortening of leg godt, which translates as โplay wellโ.
DAILY POLL
Do you think Russia will agree to a 30-day ceasefire? |
Yesterdayโs poll: How do you feel about Romania’s ban on Georgescu?
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ย ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย ๐ Good riddance, he benefited from Russian interference (59%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ฉ Urrgh, you don’t fight interference with interference (38%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write us!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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๐ย R.L: โAction needs to be taken at some point and the longer democracies take to respond, the harder it gets to do it.โ
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๐ฉ B.P: โI’m extremely concerned about Georgescu’s assault on democracy and the interference by Russia; at the same time, it would be a massive hit to credibility when Romania applies these bans in such a fashion.โ
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โ๏ธ U.E: โReally? You can’t see that this was an EU coup?โ
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โ๏ธ J.S: โI see a near future where everyone accuses everyone of foreign interference. This will be led by the interfering states to mask their own interference. The problem is global.โ
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