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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Did the US just ditch Ukraine? |
2️⃣ Diplomats on the move |
3️⃣ Photo of the day |
Hi Intriguer. It’s not every day that you get to interview Lithuania’s former foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis. But yesterday, I had the pleasure of hosting Intrigue’s webinar featuring Gabrielius, joined by Intriguers globally.
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We covered a lot of ground in 45 minutes. Gabrielius shared his insights into what’s next in the Russo-Ukraine war, why the European Union needs to reform, and his own calling to fight for freedom. You can catch our candid chat here.
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One thing that stuck with me was his thoughts on the future of globalisation: “it’s had its moment, and now we’ll see what’s next”. And with that thought, let’s dive into today’s top story on some big US announcements on Ukraine.
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PS – You can also stay in touch with Gabrielius — including via his brilliant newsletter and podcast — over at landsbergis.com.
THE HEADLINES
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US to release Russian crypto kingpin as part of exchange.
The US will release Alexander Vinnik as part of a deal that brought American teacher Marc Fogel home from Russian detention. Greek authorities first detained Vinnik at Washington’s request in 2017 on charges of mass money laundering through a cryptocurrency platform.
Hamas to release hostages on schedule.
Moments ago, Hamas said it’ll release three Israeli hostages on Saturday as planned, after days of Israel-Hamas recriminations threatened to upend their fragile ceasefire.
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Sudan and Russia finalise naval base deal.
Sudanese envoy Ali Al-Sharif has told reporters that Sudan and Russia have agreed on the creation of a new Russian naval base along Sudan’s Red Sea coast. The announcement, which echoes a deal Russia made with Sudan’s previous rulers in 2019, comes as doubts linger over the future of Russia’s naval base in Syria.
China tech stocks rally.
A benchmark index for China’s tech stocks has risen by 20% over the past month on account of rising optimism around China’s AI prospects. E-commerce giant Alibaba’s stocks have also surged after announcing it’ll team up with Apple to roll out Apple AI features across the country.
Israel seeks extension for Lebanon pull-out.
The Israeli military is due to withdraw from Lebanon next week, but is reportedly pushing for another 10-day extension. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire has already been extended once, with both sides (plus Lebanon, where Hezbollah is based) claiming breaches.
Gabbard confirmed as US spymaster.
The senate has confirmed former congresswoman for Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard as Donald Trump’s new director of national intelligence. We wrote about the delays here.
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TOP STORY
Did the US just ditch Ukraine?
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As world leaders, chief diplomats, and defence leaders alike board their private jets to Munich today, just know that their teams are re-writing every briefing note and messaging strategy in the wake of Washington’s mic drop only hours ago.
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Here’s what happened.
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Speaking first from Brussels at the UK-chaired Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, the new US Defence Chief Pete Hegseth made clear Washington’s view on Ukraine:
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Ukraine retaking its land from Russian occupation is “illusionary”
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NATO membership for Ukraine as part of a negotiated peace is not “realistic”
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Rather, security guarantees must be led by European (and non-European) troops
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They should be under a non-NATO mission (ie, no mutual US defence pledge)
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There’ll be no US boots on the ground in Ukraine
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Europe must provide the “overwhelming share” of future help to Ukraine, and
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In parallel, the US is vowing more effective sanctions enforcement plus more US oil and gas production to drive down the prices that fund Russia’s war.
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Hegseth defended his reasoning, arguing the US is “prioritizing deterring war with China in the Pacific, recognizing the reality of scarcity, and making the resourcing tradeoffs to ensure deterrence does not fail.” That means, he says, Europe must lead in Europe.
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And as if that wasn’t already enough for the world to digest, President Trump himself then revealed he’s just held a nearly 90-minute phone call with Vladimir Putin.
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About what? Seemingly everything: “Ukraine, the Middle East, Energy, Artificial Intelligence, the power of the Dollar, and various other subjects”.
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But critically, the two world leaders apparently also agreed to start direct talks to end the Russo-Ukrainian war “immediately” and pledged to “work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations.” Trump later said they’ll meet in Saudi Arabia first.
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The president then answered questions in the Oval Office, including on whether Hegseth had just undermined Ukraine — Trump answered, “I’m backing Ukraine”, and “frankly we’ll go as long as we have to go” because otherwise Putin wins.
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In parallel, his new treasury secretary Scott Bessent emerged in Kyiv on his first official trip abroad, proposing to President Zelensky a new US-Ukraine economic partnership as “an important signal to the world, to Russian leadership, that we stand together”.
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So… that’s a lot of messages the world is still digesting right now, and leaders have been tentative in their initial responses, but let’s take a quick world tour, shall we?
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Ukraine: In a few minutes, Ukraine’s path to NATO went from “irreversible” to “unrealistic”; and Russian annexation of Ukrainian turf went from “never, never, never” getting recognised, to “illusionary” to reverse — though Ukrainians might find some solace in: a) Hegseth not specifically ending US assistance; b) Trump pushing back on suggestions he’s ditching Ukraine; and c) Bessent personally delivering a proposal for an economic partnership.
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Europe: In a few minutes, America’s 75-year-old pledge to protect Europe under NATO’s article 5 went from a “sacred commitment”, to the US no longer being “primarily focused on the security of Europe”, though Europeans might’ve taken some solace that Hegseth toned down his original prepared remarks, which had gone further by declaring the US was no longer “the primary guarantor of security in Europe”.
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Russia: And in a few minutes, Putin might’ve scored some wins before talks have even started — no NATO membership for Ukraine; de-facto US acceptance of his gains in Ukraine; the legitimacy that comes from a direct call (and possible in-person visit) with a US president; and a direct channel to negotiate Ukraine’s future with the US, seemingly over the heads of Ukraine and wider Europe; all jibing with Putin’s argument that this was just a US-Russia proxy war to begin with.
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And so now all eyes are on tomorrow’s Munich Security Conference, where JD Vance and Marco Rubio will lead the next phase of talks for the US. Our very own John and Kristen are on the ground there and will keep Intriguers posted.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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Something tells us future historians will pore over the remarks Pete Hegseth just dropped on his 19th day in office. Here are two (of many) possible histories they’ll see:
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Hegseth just empowered Europe to step up in its own defence and break the European cycle of dependency on the US, strengthening the Western alliance, halting the Russo-Ukraine war, and deterring a war in the Pacific, or
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Hegseth just rewarded Russia while abandoning Ukraine and broader Europe, emboldening Putin to keep pursuing his empire, ditto Xi in China, thus ushering in a wider conflict that US troops are then treaty-bound to enter.
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A lot depends on what Ukraine and the Europeans do next.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: The lower house has ratified a deal with the UN, outlining the terms of Kazakhstan’s contribution to the UN peacekeeping mission in the Golan Heights. 139 Kazakhstani servicemembers have been operating in the region since last March, where tensions between Israel and Syria persist.
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🇭🇺 Hungary: Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has welcomed the co-leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to Budapest, describing the fellow nationalist-populist and migration sceptic as representing Germany’s future. The AfD is polling second behind the more centrist CDU in some districts ahead of German elections on February 23rd.
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🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea: The same investigative group that unveiled the infamous Panama Papers has just dropped another report claiming PNG’s central bank chief was the subject of a money laundering investigation when appointed last year. The bank’s board is backing her for now, noting it hasn’t seen any reason to question her integrity.
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🇺🇸 US: American energy giant Chevron says it’ll slash up to 20% of its workforce by the end of 2026 following lacklustre earnings last month. It’s made headlines in part because President Trump’s pledge to unleash US energy output left many assuming producers would grow, not cut, their workforces.
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🇬🇭 Ghana: Local prosecutors have declared Ghana’s former finance minister a fugitive over his alleged involvement in corruption while in office (2017-2024), costing the government billions. He skipped town last month, and prosecutors are calling BS on his claims that he’s just abroad for medical reasons.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
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Diplomats on the move ✈️
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🇸🇾 Syria’s foreign minister Asaad Al-Shaibani is expected to travel to Paris today (Thursday) to discuss further lifting EU sanctions on Damascus, as reports emerge that Cyprus and Greece might be blocking progress.
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Diplomats in 🇪🇹 Ethiopia (including from Italy, the US, the UK, Germany, France, and the EU) visited Mekelle this week to discuss the implementation of the 2022 Ethiopia–Tigray peace agreement.
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🇨🇳 China’s foreign minister Wang Yi has departed Beijing for Munich, where he’ll speak at the Munich Security Conference before a visit to the UK and Ireland.
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And the UK’s new envoy to 🇹🇼 Taiwan has now taken up her post in Taipei at Britain’s de facto embassy.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Credits: Xinhua News Agency.
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Those celebrating Chinese New Year capped off festivities yesterday (Wednesday) with the annual Lantern Festival. Known in Chinese as Yuanxiao Jie (yuan = beginning, xiao = night, and jie = festival), it falls on the first full moon of the new year and is meant to honour ancestors while promoting a spirit of peace and forgiveness.
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State media snapped the picture above at the Hubei provincial museum in Wuhan.
DAILY POLL
Do you think Ukraine will keep fighting for its lost territory? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium will accomplish their stated objective?
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🛡️ Yes, they’ll make the US more prosperous and secure (19%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 😟 No, they’ll push other countries closer to China (75%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (6%)
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Your two cents:
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😟 J: “Mom always said, ‘Don’t hit your friends with a baseball bat, or they’ll stop being your friends.’”
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🛡️ G.C: “I think they’ll accomplish their objective, but their ‘stated objective’ is another question. Trump’s stated goals are often not his primary goals.”
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😟 H.C: “Whatever happened to innovation to lower production costs when competition is tough? Protectionism isn’t the answer in the long term.”
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✍️ D.L: “They will do both. More prosperous and secure long term, but push countries closer to China short term.”
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