Our 2026 geopolitics predictions

The ‘For-sures’

1. Europe can’t shake the US

While it’s easy to rag on Europe’s passive statements, consider the task European leaders have ahead: EU citizens shop with Visa or Mastercard, scroll on US-made devices from Google to Apple, watch viral shows on Netflix and HBO, and still even rely heavily on US military equipment. These aren’t switches you can make overnight.

Likelihood: 99%

2. Cryptocurrency goes mainstream

Bipartisan backing has paved the way for crypto-friendly regulation in the US, further entrenching the role of stablecoins in American capital markets. That’ll influence other global players, and likely push the EU to re-think its own central-bank-led approach.

Likelihood: 90%

3. Tech giants go (more) nuclear

All the clicks, likes, and AI-generated memes will keep driving energy demand to new heights, forcing firms like Meta to further take charge of their energy future with more nuclear commitments, rather than waiting for any decisive policy shifts.

Likelihood: 85%

4. No AI bubble

Everyone’s waiting for the AI bubble to pop. We don’t think it will—at least not as a US stock-market collapse. Instead, we’ll see investors move abroad to markets like the UK, Japan, and Europe for many reasons: diffusion of AI technologies, a weakening USD, and economic tailwinds fanned by fiscal stimulus and governance reforms.

Likelihood: 80%

5. No Russo-Ukraine peace

While there’s been plenty of shuttle diplomacy, peace doesn’t seem much closer, largely because one of the parties (Putin) doesn’t want it. And that’s because he seems to think — absent any sudden implosion — that time is on his side. The free world has the tools to disabuse Putin of that notion, but still not the will.

Likelihood: 80%

‘We’re confident’

6. The pink tide recedes across Latin America

Colombia’s hard-right firebrand Abelardo de la Espriella will crush Colombia’s May–June elections, capitalising on public fatigue over insecurity and promising he can deliver a Bukele-style crackdown on organised crime, plus a Milei-style economic revival. We’ll see a similar rightward shift play out in elections across Peru (April/June) and Brazil (October).

Likelihood: 70%

7. Argentina adopts the dollar via the backdoor

What’s this, another crypto prediction? You bet—crypto is the most underreported story in geopolitics. This year, Argentina will become the first major economy to formally permit stablecoin payments for everyday commerce, creating a parallel dollar-denominated system alongside the peso. After year-on-year inflation peaked just under 300% in 2024, stablecoins accounted for ~60% of all crypto transactions in the country. With the Milei government having secured a $20B IMF loan, and banks set to offer crypto services from April 2026, formalising stablecoin payments is the next logical step.

Likelihood: 65%

8. World breaches 1.4°C barrier for fourth year running

The year’s global average temperature will be around 1.46°C above the pre-industrial average, becoming one of the four warmest years on record — that’s as world powers struggle to bridge their differences to slow emissions and accelerate adaptation efforts.

Likelihood: 60%

9. BRICS stack up, the Quad breaks down

India will host the 18th BRICS Summit in Delhi in August, welcoming a significantly expanded bloc. In stark contrast, the Quad (the US, Japan, India, Australia) got one fleeting mention in Trump’s new National Security Strategy. For the supposed cornerstone of the US Indo-Pacific strategy, that feels like a eulogy — India’s Quad Summit for November is now postponed “for scheduling reasons”.

Likelihood: 60%

10. Mass UN layoffs

Driven by US withdrawals from various bodies and a shortfall in funding from several other hesitant donor states, the UN will now rush to consolidate and streamline its work. Whoever emerges as the next Secretary-General (whether Argentina’s Grossi, Chile’s Bachelet or beyond) might inherit a UN system in freefall.

Likelihood: 60%

The ‘Coin flips’

11. Iran’s mullahs hold on

Raging protests gave hope Tehran’s rulers might be on their way out, but with key factions closing ranks, fearful folks staying home, and US intentions unclear, the mullahs are now better positioned to survive. But the reality is Iran’s widespread despair won’t lift until Iran’s economy stabilises — and that won’t happen until its regime normalises.

Likelihood: 50%

12. China chip output overtakes the US

China will achieve near-parity in domestic chip production, matching (in volume if not quality) US output in some key segments. Driven by pressure from US export controls and a surging domestic market, we’ll likely see China’s DeepSeek moment for hardware, as the country’s AI investments boom, hardware capabilities accelerate, and AI adoption overtakes the US.

Likelihood: 50%

13. Democracy gets the AI treatment

We’ll see AI tools proliferate across Western democracies to support more public participation and deliberation. Already popular in Taiwan, AI will play an important role in large-scale public consultations, helping synthesise citizen inputs and finding common ground to help reduce polarisation. How much public trust this tech retains remains the question…

Likelihood: 50%

The ‘Eh, maybe?’

14. Startups break the fusion barrier

Accelerated by AI, at least one US startup will generate net energy using fusion (the energy that powers stars), bringing a holy grail of energy abundance another step closer and reshaping geopolitical calculations across energy-starved capitals everywhere.

Likelihood: 40%

15. M23 announces Congo independence

Despite both US and Qatar-brokered deals, fighting in eastern DR Congo hasn’t abated, with rumours the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels want to consolidate their power by establishing an autonomous region. There’ll always be hot-heads wanting more, announcing a completely separate country and triggering renewed Congo violence.

Likelihood: 40%

16. Midterm night becomes midterm month

With Democrats now polling to retake the House in November, the White House will treat this as an existential threat. Any resulting limbo will have geopolitical consequences: European allies will publicly distance themselves from the US and accelerate their planning for a post-US NATO. And China, having seen it all coming, will “coincidentally” launch its largest military exercises ever, in waters off Taiwan and Japan.

Likelihood: 40%

17. Belarusian dictator makes first visit to DC

It’s no secret the US and Belarus are rekindling their ties. Last year, the Belarusians greeted the new US special envoy with the release of 14 political prisoners. DC could be seeking to cleave Minsk from Moscow, or perhaps find another channel through which to influence the ongoing Russo-Ukraine peace talks. Lukashenko, on the other hand, is just delighted to be seen as an important world leader.

Likelihood: 35%

18. The US ‘soft’ nationalises Intel

Even after (some might say because of!) Trump’s deal for a 9.9% stake in Intel —unprecedented for a domestic company in peacetime — the US chipmaker continues to struggle: a ~$3B operating loss in mid-2025, and its flagship Ohio fab delayed again. President Trump recently praised Intel’s new-ish CEO, but if the company continues to falter, Washington will need to choose between letting America’s semiconductor ambitions fail, or doubling down via a bigger stake (with voting rights).

Likelihood: 35%

19. The US recognises Somaliland

Driven by Trump’s instinct to broadly align with Israel in the region, and by the opportunity to counter Chinese and Turkish influence in the Horn of Africa, the Trump Administration will join Israel in recognising Somalia’s breakaway territory of Somaliland.

Likelihood: 30%

20. Turkey and Israel fight over Syria

Since Assad hit the highway to Moscow in December 2024, Turkey and Israel have been at odds over their competing visions for Syria, with Turkey even severing trade and economic ties in 2024, then banning certain aircraft and ship visits last year. The odds of a proxy confrontation are on the rise.

Likelihood: 30%

The ‘Unprecedented times’

21. Water scarcity triggers Mekong pushback

China’s upstream dams will contribute to record-low water flows through Vietnam and Thailand, pushing the two Southeast Asian powers to finally deepen their cooperation and get more assertive in demanding better data-sharing from — and coordinated management with — China.

Likelihood: 25%

22. Tajikistan withdraws from ‘Russian NATO’

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), aka “Russia’s NATO”, has been on life support for years. A crisis on Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan (the Tajik government reported several incursions just last month) could push Dushanbe straight into Beijing’s arms and spell an effective end to Moscow’s security influence over Central Asia.

Likelihood: 25%

23. The Arctic’s cold war heats up

The Arctic is getting crowded. As sea ice retreats, shipping and military patrols will surge into the same cold, tight spaces, chasing shorter routes and valuable resources. With Russia, China, and the US all leaning in—and no reliable way to keep encounters from spiralling—we’re likely to see a real-world flashpoint: a near-collision, an aggressive interception gone wrong, or a commercial ship caught in the crossfire.

Likelihood: 25%

24. The US gets dragged into a border war in Venezuela

With Washington effectively calling the shots in post-Maduro Venezuela, Colombia’s ‘ELN’ guerrillas will exploit the power vacuum in Caracas and push across the border. Washington will be forced to step in — directly or through aligned local forces — to prevent an insurgency from taking hold.

Likelihood: 20%

25. China signs a security agreement with Haiti

The world seems to have moved on from the violence still devastating Haiti. Despite UN-backed forces and US mercenaries, gangs still run the island, making life unliveable for its ~12M people. So having lost its man in Caracas, China might now move to cultivate stronger ties in Haiti, triggering another standoff with Trump.

Likelihood: 15%