Just as one war ended over the weekend, Pakistan and Afghanistan said “hold my chai“.
You’ll recall we mentioned on Friday the epic Hollywood potential here, so we’ve channelled our inner Michael Bay for today’s briefing.
Smell that? It’s popcorn, as we open with…
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- Backstory
It’s a classic sepia flashback to happier times: these Afghan and Pakistani neighbours actually share plenty in common, across ethnicity (part-Pashtun), language (both draw on Farsi), theology (predominantly Sunni), and even sport (cricket). But then…
- Inciting incident
When the US ousted the Taliban in response to the 9/11 attacks, Pakistan found it didn’t like neighbouring Kabul yet again being run by a foreign-backed government which might a) favour rival India, b) stir separatism along Pakistan’s border, or c) allow the US to conduct drone strikes on Pakistani turf. So Islamabad went for…
- A victory
The Pakistanis started quietly helping Pakistan-based fundamentalists called Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) with close ties to the Taliban, basically hoping for what geopolitics nerds call ‘strategic depth‘ (aka keeping threats away from Pakistan’s own borders).
And it ✌️worked✌️ in the sense that the TTP helped its Taliban kin re-establish a Pashtun-dominated Islamist regime in Kabul. Mission accomplished, right? Wrong.
- A betrayal
The TTP happily accepted Pakistani help, but that’s not the same as saying the TTP ever liked Pakistan. To the contrary, the TTP always hated it for a) being insufficiently devout, b) partnering with the US, and c) violating TTP-controlled lands to quash separatism.
So with its Taliban friends now back in power, the TTP turned on its own Pakistani backers, launching ~1,500 attacks since 2021. And Pakistan has kind of flailed ever since, until…
- Explosions
It was Pakistan’s infamous ISI intelligence agency that long helped the TTP, meaning those ISI spooks still have excellent sources on the inside. That’s partly how the Pakistanis found out TTP leaders were gathering in Kabul last week.
And so… emboldened by May’s hits on rival India, and irked that the Taliban is now cosying up to India so much, Pakistan conducted Kabul drone/air strikes Thursday night that might’ve killed the top TTP leader, Noor Wali Mehsud. That’s a massive deal.
Roll the credits, turn the house lights on, print money at the box office, right? Wrong.
That just unleashed a weekend of more violence, with Taliban forces hitting (and capturing) Pakistani outposts along their shared border, reportedly leaving dozens dead (the Pakistanis are claiming similar counter-attacks).
So now what? Everyone’s declaring victory and calling for restraint, which is often a sign things might settle for now. But given the history above, you can bet there’ll be a sequel.
Intrigue’s Take
This conflict is an interesting example of several broader truths in geopolitics.
First, cultural affinity can (counterintuitively perhaps) be a complicating rather than unifying factor. Strong cross-border identities won’t always align with how neighbouring capitals are thinking about the world — sure, that opens up the possibility of wielding any shared identity against a neighbour, but the reality is they can use it against you, too.
Second, the fact the Taliban would cosy up with semi-distant India as a counter to more familiar Pakistan is a reminder that no ethnic, linguistic, or religious distance is ever enough to rule out alignment if the mutual need is there.