Three surprising election results

We got three electoral surprises Sunday, so let’s explore why each matters, starting in…

1. 🇯🇵 Japan

Newish conservative PM Sanae Takaichi was always going to win, but she’s now got i) a standalone supermajority, after ii) Japan’s biggest single-party victory in post-war history.

So… why does this matter?

• a) It potentially ends Japan’s revolving door of weak leaders herding feline coalitions against intractable problems, which is why…
• b) Japan’s Nikkei 225 just spiked 5%+ to an all-time high while bond yields jumped. Optimistic investors are re-pricing Takaichi’s ability to reform and stimulate, while cautious lenders are demanding more interest (yield) given the pressure her spending will put on Tokyo’s finances. And speaking of pressure…
• c) It’s a repudiation of the world power (China) openly opposing Takaichi since she warned last year that China’s invasion of Taiwan could be a “survival-threatening” situation for Japan (ie, triggering more defence powers). Hoping a raft of military and trade manoeuvres might weaken Takaichi, Beijing has instead helped usher in one of Japan’s most popular and resolute administrations.

So… what next? Takaichi not only wants to continue Japan’s military ramp-up to counter China, but she also now has the Lower (but not yet Upper) House supermajority to start loosening Japan’s famous ‘pacifist’ Article 9.

Now join us in one of JAL’s famous sky suites from Narita Airport over to…

2. 🇹🇭 Thailand

Here we’ve got yet another nationalist incumbent who took power almost the same time last year, and gambled on his own snap election for the exact same day (Sunday), amid a collapse in his own neighbourly ties (this time with Cambodia).

But while Japan’s leader gambled from a position of strength, Thailand’s Anutin rolled these electoral dice out of weakness to head-off a no-confidence vote. And… it worked! Tapping nationalist sentiment amid the Cambodia spat, he just ~tripled his party’s seats (though will still need to form a coalition).

So… why does this matter?

• a) He’s halted Thailand’s youth-led reformists, whose main party lost seats, and
• b) He now looks well placed to lead a more stable administration and finally start tackling Thailand’s mounting challenges, including the economic stagnation that’s taken hold amid all the political intrigue.

Then finally, join us in one of the famous Qsuites via Doha for our final stop in…

3. 🇵🇹 Portugal

The presidency in Portugal is mostly ceremonial, but the landslide win by the centre-left’s Seguro was still interesting in its scale (one of the biggest in Portuguese history) and context (rejecting the hard-right alternative, which still remains a growing force).

Our sense is it’s less a left-vs-right thing, and more a stability-vs-disruption thing — Seguro is an establishment figure promising he’ll work with the centre-right government.

And… that completes your Monday election wrap-up.

Intrigue’s Take

Three wildly different nations running wildly different elections, yet offering eerily similar lessons, starting with…

• i) Nothing unites earthlings like a threat from Mars: whether it’s the spectre of China over Japan or Cambodia over Thailand, there was a clear rally-around-the-flag effect at play. As for Portugal? The ‘threat’ was less a foreign foe, and more a firebrand style that folks don’t (yet?) want at the helm in Portugal. And relatedly…
• ii) Meddle at your own risk: both China and its friend Cambodia tried to tip the scales — we’ve outlined the China backstory above, but the Cambodia angle includes leaking private calls with Thai leaders, and even a senior Cambodian minister openly backing Thailand’s opposition. But in the end, both backfired, bigly. That’s partly out of national affront, but also because…
• iii) Voters want stability: that’s unsurprising amid so much volatility, but maybe the Portugal story is a reminder that this preference for stability isn’t a blank check — there are populist alternatives biding their time.