Joe Biden hosted the leaders of Japan, India, and Australia in his home state of Delaware over the weekend, culminating in Saturday night’s joint Wilmington Declaration.
So let’s dive in with three choice quotes to get you what you need to know.
- “As four leading maritime democracies in the Indo-Pacific, we unequivocally stand for the maintenance of peace and stability across this dynamic region“
The ‘we’ here is the Quad. And what’s the Quad?
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That’s an insightful question, dear Intriguer, because you’ll get very different answers depending on who you ask. Beijing will tell you it’s an attempt to contain China and incite conflict. And the Quad members themselves (the US, Japan, India, Australia) will give you the above innocuous quote about peace and stability.
And yet the truth is – as always – more nuanced: the Quad first emerged while coordinating aid after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but it soon faded as some members got nervous at China’s objections that the Quad was ganging up on it: India had 100,000 Chinese troops along its border, while Australia didn’t want to risk its billions in exports to China.
But then after disappearing… the Quad suddenly reappeared a decade later and even got elevated to a leader-level summit from 2021. What changed? The Quad members themselves would say China changed under Xi Jinping: more border clashes with India, more claims over the South China Sea (rejected by an international tribunal in 2016), more economic coercion against Australia, etc. So they got the band back together again.
And what’d they say this time?
- “We seek a region where no country dominates and no country is dominated — one where all countries are free from coercion“
After this line, the leaders went on to deliver some blunt language on who they assess is doing the dominating and the coercing: China. They even name-dropped the above 2016 ruling against it, and ‘condemned’ China’s use of “dangerous manoeuvres” in the area.
But here’s the thing: the statement, in all its 6,000-word glory, never specifically mentions China. Not once. That’s the result of lengthy negotiations among the four Quad members on how to approach China, with the US generally wanting to call a spade a spade, while the others have – to varying degrees – long been wary of then getting hit with that spade.
So the result? This Wilmington Declaration is somehow the Quad’s strongest-ever language on China, without ever actually mentioning China. Isn’t diplomacy fun?
Okay, but any action?
- “The Quad is… a force for good that delivers real, positive, and enduring impact“
Quad members have received a lot of feedback from countries tired of feeling forced to ‘pick a side‘ between China and the US. And the region has also voiced criticism which we’ll summarise here by paraphrasing an infamous quote a Kenyan official once dropped: every time China visits, we get a hospital; and every time the US visits, we get a lecture.
So Quad members have been hustling to make the Quad both more positive and more concrete. And you can see this in the declaration itself, featuring pledges on everything from eradicating cervical cancer and issuing more scholarships, through to transporting more aid, rolling out more solar panels, doing more coast guard cooperation, and beyond.
The idea, in theory at least, is to give the region options rather than force any choices.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
There’s still a pretty widespread view (encouraged by this latest broad Quad declaration) that the group is struggling to find its feet, kinda begging the question – what’s the point? And with one Quad leader (Biden) leaving office in January, and another (Kishida) leaving office this week, why even host the summit now?
Well, it’s worth zooming out and remembering that the Quad is just one of many regional initiatives seeking to grapple with a more confrontational China. Each one might not seem much on its own, but collectively the hope is they’re enough to deter a war over, say, Taiwan or the South China Sea.
So if you’ll forgive the circular logic here, the point of this Quad summit was really to ensure there’ll be more Quad summits in the future, as leaders come and go and the group finds its feet. That’s also why, despite not getting a single direct mention in the statement, China’s state media outlets have still devoted several editorials to criticising the Quad yet again.
Also worth noting:
- India is due to host next year’s Quad summit. It was scheduled to host this year, but agreed to a swap with the US once it became clear President Biden was concluding his term in office.