US-Russia talks kick off

After nearly three years of diplomatic deep freeze, the US and Russia are back on talking terms. And talk they did. For 4.5 hours, over lamb and scallops at one point.

Senior reps from both capitals met at a Saudi palace in Riyadh for talks on a future Russo-Ukraine deal following last week’s Trump-Putin phone call.

Who was there?

• Trump sent Marco Rubio (his secretary of state), Mike Waltz (his national security advisor), and Steve Witkoff (his special envoy and long-time friend), and
• Putin sent Sergey Lavrov (his foreign minister), Yuri Ushakov (his foreign policy advisor and former ambassador to the US), and Kirill Dmitriev (the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, which is gradually going broke).

They were hosted by Prince Faisal bin Farhan (the Saudi foreign minister) and Musaad al-Aiban (the Saudi national security advisor), who kicked things off then left the room.

What’s the objective here? 

The official DC line is that these aren’t the talks, but a prelude to talks. Rubio, for example, has said it’s just the “first step of a long and difficult journey”, and previously described this week as a test to see whether Russia is serious about ending the war.

Meanwhile, the official Kremlin line from Putin’s spokesman (Peskov) is that these talks are about, “first and foremost, restoring the full scope of US-Russia relations”, and secondly, focussing on preparations for “potential negotiations” on ending the war.

But of course, you don’t need ex-diplomats like us to tell you that, even before formal talks, anything you say still helps the other side calibrate its strategy to get what it wants.

So with that in mind, we can’t ignore last week’s various unilateral US declarations, like ruling out Ukraine’s NATO membership, de-facto acknowledging Russia’s territorial gains by force, and foreshadowing a reduced US security presence in Europe (all with no apparent requirement from Russia).

Anyway, what then came out of yesterday’s Riyadh talks? 

According to Washington’s official readout, the US and Russia agreed to:  

1. Establish a channel to address “irritants” in the US-Russia relationship 
2. Appoint “high level teams” to begin working on a peace agreement that’s “enduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all sides”, and
3. Work towards “future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities” that emerge after the war.

Rubio separately told reporters that step two above would involve “engagement and consultation with Europe and Ukraine”.

Meanwhile, according to Russia’s state outlets, the talks also included preparations for an in-person meeting between Putin and Trump, though they offered no further details. 

Both sides then sprinkled a little more colour with reporters outside:

• Russia’s Lavrov described the possible presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine as “completely unacceptable”, and said the US talks also touched on sanctions relief, plus Dmitriev elaborated on economic opportunities available to the US in a post-sanctions world, particularly in the oil and gas sector, while…
• Rubio said he was ”convinced” Russia was committed to a serious peace process, which would have to involve the EU “at some point” given EU sanctions on Russia.

Donald Trump himself then weighed in from Florida, bristling at a reporter’s question regarding Ukraine’s disappointment at not being invited to the talks, and commenting:

• He just wants the killing to stop
• Ukraine “should never have started it” and “allowed the war to go on”, and
• “The leader in Ukraine is down at 4% approval ratings. Wouldn’t the people of Ukraine need to have an election?“

So… how has the world reacted?

🇺🇦Ukraine

President Zelensky has voiced anger at the US talking with Ukraine’s invaders, “about Ukraine again – and without Ukraine”. He’s now hoping to get further clarification from US special envoy Keith Kellogg who’s due in Kyiv today (Wednesday), though it’s unclear what clout Kellogg even has at this stage (he didn’t score a seat in Riyadh, for example).

There’s also been local shock, not just at Trump’s suggestion that Ukraine is to blame for Putin’s decision to invade, but also at Trump’s call for Ukrainian elections — first, because Zelensky’s approval (52%) is higher than Trump’s; second, because the country’s constitution prohibits elections during martial law (how do the million Ukrainian troops vote while defending against Russia’s invasion); third, because polls suggest anyone capable of beating Zelensky would hardly be Russia-friendly, indicating this call is more an attempt to discredit Zelensky; and fourth, that’s presumably why it’s a call more commonly made by Putin himself, who has meanwhile killed or exiled any credible opposition back home.

🇪🇺 Europe

Meanwhile, the mood in Europe is similarly sombre — Danish leader Mette Frederiksen, for example, just told her parliament that the security outlook is now “worse than the Cold War”, reflecting a broader vibe of shock and gloom at the rapidly shifting sands under Europe’s feet. Some now even fear Trump will agree to a Putin demand to remove US troops defending NATO allies along the Baltic.

And after failing to develop a united response at Monday’s emergency meeting in Paris, EU leaders plus Norway and Canada are now holding a follow-up today (Wednesday).

🇷🇺 Russia

Meanwhile, Moscow continues to sound triumphant and in control, though that’s not due to any success on the battlefield — six months on, Putin still can’t take back his own Kursk territory that the Ukrainians counter-seized in August, while any momentum has slowed over in Ukraine’s east. Lavrov is (as above) issuing demands nonetheless.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

One way to look at all this is that Trump presumably believes he can succeed where the last four US presidents have failed, by finally pulling off a US ‘reset’ with Russia: Clinton had his bromance with Yeltsin; Bush Jr famously saw Putin’s soul; Obama ditched a missile shield in an attempt to reverse a “dangerous drift” in US-Russia ties; and Biden even met Putin personally in Geneva.

But along the way, Putin invaded Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, and the rest of Ukraine in 2022, plus also propped up Assad from 2015, while destabilising former Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia that hadn’t already rushed to NATO’s defence umbrella (a process Putin calls NATO expansion). So maybe the issue here is less about failed US resets, and more about Russia’s clear ambition.

Also worth noting:

• Beijing has remained relatively quiet, possibly reflecting the regional limits of its power, its own complex history with Russia, its domestic woes, and probably some unease around what US-Russia ties might mean for Beijing’s own strategy.
• Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan just hosted President Zelensky, again declaring that Ukraine’s territorial integrity is indisputable.
• Meanwhile, the Saudis will notch their hosting up as a win, in an attempt not only to rehabilitate Riyadh’s image after assassinating Jamal Khashoggi, but also to beat the rival Emiratis to regional and global powerbroker status.
• US intelligence officials have told NBC that Putin is just going through the motions with these talks, and still thinks he can eventually control all of Ukraine.