Where is the Russo-Ukraine war headed?


Ukraine has claimed some hits on Russian occupying forces lately, including:

  • Destroying an advanced air defence system in Crimea yesterday (Thursday), using drones to blind it then cruise missiles to destroy it
  • Seriously damaging a landing ship and submarine that were undergoing repairs at a dock in Crimea on Wednesday
  • Recapturing strategic oil and gas platforms in the Black Sea last weekend (they were reportedly housing radar equipment), and
  • Retaking various villages along the southern and eastern fronts over the past month, breaking through some initial Russian defences.

Meanwhile, Russia has reportedly:

Intrigue’s take: Two quotes come to mind here.

First, WWII General Omar Bradley’s old line that “amateurs talk strategy and professionals talk logistics”: in a war of attrition, supply lines are key. Hence the increased targeting of landing ships, port facilities, bridges, etc.

And second, “gradually, then suddenly”: this was a Hemmingway line on bankruptcy, but it fits war, too. Sure, we could be looking at similar front-lines in five years. But defences can collapse. And that happens quickly.

Also worth noting:

  • Ukraine says Russia is preparing for another mobilisation drive later this year. Russian officials have said there are no such plans.
Latest Author Articles
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next US spymaster?

Trump’s 2.0 cabinet picks were always going to be a source of intrigue, but none quite like Tulsi Gabbard, his nominee for Director of National Intelligence — it’s a job created after the September 2001 terrorist attacks to drive better intel oversight and coordination. Views on Gabbard range from American hero to Russian spy to […]

7 February, 2025
The kidnapping that’s rocked a region 

Imagine this: you’re slamming down that morning Pop-Tart® (frosted apple cinnamon, probably), when you get the call you’ve been waiting for — an opportunity to work on a dream project in Thailand. Your mind instantly runs wild with images of you absolutely chilling on a beach with a cocktail in hand (Sabai Sabai®, probably). Anyway, […]

5 February, 2025
Four global lessons from earnings week

Earnings calls used to be the exclusive domain of cigar-chomping capitalists, perhaps yelling “sell” at some quivering underling off-camera while an old-school ticker-tape hums. But we can confirm cigar-chomping diplomats also now follow this stuff — or should. If you’re willing to sift through the euphemisms and spin, these corporate events are full of insights into how […]

31 January, 2025
Something’s fishy under the Baltic Sea

We’ve long been debating when to brief you on the shenanigans under the Baltic Sea, but another single undersea cable getting severed is never quite enough to beat a dictator’s downfall, a new US president, or a Wall St meltdown. And that’s precisely the point of hybrid warfare: it’s about inflicting pain that’s never quite enough. Any damage to critical […]

29 January, 2025