Where is the Russo-Ukraine war headed?

Ukraine has claimed some hits on Russian occupying forces lately, including:

• Destroying an advanced air defence system in Crimea yesterday (Thursday), using drones to blind it then cruise missiles to destroy it
• Seriously damaging a landing ship and submarine that were undergoing repairs at a dock in Crimea on Wednesday
• Recapturing strategic oil and gas platforms in the Black Sea last weekend (they were reportedly housing radar equipment), and
• Retaking various villages along the southern and eastern fronts over the past month, breaking through some initial Russian defences.

Meanwhile, Russia has reportedly:

• Launched missile attacks to destroy or damage more than 100 Ukrainian port facilities since July, restricting grain exports
• Repelled advances elsewhere along the 1000km front thanks to mines, barricades, ‘dragon’s teeth’, and anti-tank ditches, and
• Claimed Ukraine’s counter-offensive has “failed”.

Intrigue’s take: Two quotes come to mind here.

First, WWII General Omar Bradley’s old line that “amateurs talk strategy and professionals talk logistics”: in a war of attrition, supply lines are key. Hence the increased targeting of landing ships, port facilities, bridges, etc.

And second, “gradually, then suddenly”: this was a Hemmingway line on bankruptcy, but it fits war, too. Sure, we could be looking at similar front-lines in five years. But defences can collapse. And that happens quickly.

Also worth noting:

• Ukraine says Russia is preparing for another mobilisation drive later this year. Russian officials have said there are no such plans.