Ukraine has claimed some hits on Russian occupying forces lately, including:
- Destroying an advanced air defence system in Crimea yesterday (Thursday), using drones to blind it then cruise missiles to destroy it
- Seriously damaging a landing ship and submarine that were undergoing repairs at a dock in Crimea on Wednesday
- Recapturing strategic oil and gas platforms in the Black Sea last weekend (they were reportedly housing radar equipment), and
- Retaking various villages along the southern and eastern fronts over the past month, breaking through some initial Russian defences.
Meanwhile, Russia has reportedly:
- Launched missile attacks to destroy or damage more than 100 Ukrainian port facilities since July, restricting grain exports
- Repelled advances elsewhere along the 1000km front thanks to mines, barricades, ‘dragon’s teeth’, and anti-tank ditches, and
- Claimed Ukraine’s counter-offensive has “failed”.
Intrigue’s take: Two quotes come to mind here.
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First, WWII General Omar Bradley’s old line that “amateurs talk strategy and professionals talk logistics”: in a war of attrition, supply lines are key. Hence the increased targeting of landing ships, port facilities, bridges, etc.
And second, “gradually, then suddenly”: this was a Hemmingway line on bankruptcy, but it fits war, too. Sure, we could be looking at similar front-lines in five years. But defences can collapse. And that happens quickly.
Also worth noting:
- Ukraine says Russia is preparing for another mobilisation drive later this year. Russian officials have said there are no such plans.