Why China is freaking out over one Japanese phrase

It was a mild and uneventful Friday back on November 7th: the onsens were steaming, the maples were blazing, and the salarymen were scurrying. Japan was Japaning, until…

New prime minister Sanae Takaichi took the Diet floor and answered a question with this:

“If there is a Taiwan contingency where the Chinese side uses warships or engages in other armed actions, it could constitute a ‘survival-threatening situation’ for Japan.”

You might think that’s just stating the obvious: if someone tries to invade a fellow democracy barely ~110km (70mi) away, yep… that’s kind of a big deal, right? Particularly for a nation like Japan so trade-dependent on open sea lanes.

But China has flipped out:

• China’s consul-general in Osaka tweeted (then deleted) that “those who dare to provoke China’s sovereignty over Taiwan will have their filthy necks cut off”
• Its tourism ministry has urged against visiting Japan,
• Its defence ministry has warned Japan it faces a “crushing defeat”, and
• Its coast guard has just sailed through the Japan-controlled Senkaku Islands (which China claims as its own “Diaoyu“).

Why this firestorm? (or you might know the acronym, ‘WTF?‘)

From China’s perspective, Takaichi’s words raised alarm bells because of…

• Who Takaichi is: a hawkish protégé of Japan’s late nationalist leader, Shinzo Abe
• What she was referencing: Abe’s 2015 security law loosened Japan’s pacifist constitution so it can join foreign wars in a “survival-threatening situation“, and…
• What Takaichi wants: China therefore frames her words as a) a reversal of Japan’s views on Taiwan, b) a revival of Japan’s militarism (near the 80th anniversary of its WWII surrender), and c) a resurgence of Japan’s interference in China’s affairs (China claims Taiwan, which Japan once colonised).

But there are probably also a few other drivers at play:

First, ambition: while it’s mellowed, China’s diplomats still play “wolf warrior” in hopes of a career bump, and this particular guy (Xue Jian) is a repeat offender — ie, that threat to behead Japan’s PM is partly another please-promote-me loyalty flex (#careertips).

Second, destabilisation: Beijing openly dislikes Japanese hawks like Takaichi, so this heavy response to her remarks is an early opportunity to impose real pain on Japan then link it to her leadership. Ie, if folks in Japan want the pain to stop, maybe pick another leader.

Third, deterrence: China’s ol’ “kill the chicken to scare the monkey” proverb comes to mind here: by dunking on Japan, you’re hoping to rattle everyone else watching in hopes they’ll think very carefully before ever saying the t-word (Taiwan) out loud again. And…

Fourth, normalisation: recall China paired its flip-out over Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 Taiwan visit with a ratcheting-up of drills around the self-ruling democracy that’ve now become the new normal. Like boiling that frog, it’s about slowly dialling up the operational tempo to back your territorial claims. So it’s noteworthy that China has likewise now paired its latest flip-out with a ratcheting up of patrols through the Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands.

Anyway, that’s why China is freaking out over a single line uttered by Japan’s new PM.

Intrigue’s Take

If you really think about it, the wildest part of all this is the possibility of a nuclear-armed UN Security Council member invading a self-ruling democracy that has never once belonged to the People’s Republic of China.

And Takaichi hinged her words on that one possibility: “If there is a Taiwan contingency where the Chinese side uses warships or engages in other armed actions, it could…“

So sure, maybe one lesson amongst all this is that political leaders are often best to just avoid answering hypotheticals — you’re not Geoffrey Robertson, and real life is infinitely more complex than any one question can possibly capture, yet your answer can still be the real-world pretext your authoritarian neighbours need to start steaming vessels your way.

But still, the problem here is really the possibility of an invasion. Not any words about it.

And yet nobody is talking about that particular problem right now, precisely because everyone’s still gawking at the latest twist in Beijing’s performative outrage. Which maybe brings us to another driver behind this whole episode: flip out enough at someone else’s words, and maybe the world will forget about your actions?

Sound even smarter:

• Japanese outlets are reporting a senior Tokyo official (Masaaki Kanai, the head of the Japanese foreign ministry’s Asia and Oceania bureau) is now en route to meet his Chinese counterpart (Liu Jinsong) in Beijing for de-escalation talks.
• If you’d like to dive a little deeper into why China is so focused on Taiwan, check out our special edition!