Well that escalated quickly. A residence belonging to Indonesia’s market darling of a finance minister (Sri Mulyani Indrawati) got ransacked outside Jakarta early yesterday (Sunday) morning. So let’s kick off the week with a quick but important question: what?!
This all ✌️started✌️ last Monday, after local outlets reported all 580 members of Indonesia’s parliament are now getting a monthly housing allowance worth a cool $3k (almost 10x the monthly minimum wage).
Those rules hit last year, but it was bad timing for the juicy details to now hit the headlines, right as regular folks feel the pinch of low wages, high inflation, and lay-offs.
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So Indonesia’s students and unions fired up with some big protests until Thursday, when…
First, footage went viral of an armoured police van hitting a young ride-hail moto-driver, leaving the poor guy dead. For a tired and angry nation, it was yet another (shocking) case of the little guy trying to do his job, only to get screwed by The Man.
And just as that outrage was bubbling towards an out-of-touch ruling class…
Second, parliamentarian Ahmad Sahroni helpfully entered centre-stage and called protestors “the stupidest people in the world” for demanding the legislature be dissolved.
It’s those two things that really set the whole saga off from Thursday: Sahroni (of “you idiots” fame) then got his house ransacked, while Indonesia’s street clashes got more violent and more widespread, with regional parliament buildings ending up ablaze.
By the time the finance minister’s house (Indrawati) was ransacked Sunday morning, any parliamentary perk anger had morphed into something way bigger, hence our above sassy air quotes around when this all ✌️started✌️: sure, folks want those perks gone, but they’re also now demanding higher minimum wages, fairer taxes, stronger anti-corruption rules, justice for past atrocities, and even the removal of the President (Prabowo) himself.
So speaking of Prabowo… how’s he handling all this?
As the chaos escalated, his office cited (ahem) “domestic dynamics” Saturday night in announcing he was cancelling his planned trip to join Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi and others at Beijing’s WWII Victory Day celebrations this Wednesday.
Then after the looting of his finance minister’s property, Prabowo himself emerged later yesterday (Sunday) hoping a mix of carrots and sticks might finally end the upheaval:
- Carrots in the form of a promise to reverse the perks (plus hold those police responsible for the ride-hail driver’s death), and
- Sticks in the form of orders for officers to get tough against rioters and looters (he also sprinkled in the words “terrorists” and “treason” for good measure).
So… did any of this work?
Maybe: several protest leaders have just delayed demonstrations planned for today (Monday), not because they’re happy, but because Prabowo’s tightening web of city checkpoints will make further protests “impossible” for now.
Intrigue’s Take
So… why should the broader world care about this?
First, it’s the world’s third-largest democracy, fourth-most populous country, and Southeast Asia’s single largest economy. And the 1990s Asian Financial Crisis was a reminder how quickly a regional butterfly’s wings can trigger a hurricane elsewhere.
Second, Indonesia is a key swing state amid the kind of US-China rivalry that’ll shape the next century, and yet Prabowo cancelling his big Beijing trip is a reminder how easily Indonesia’s heft can (again) be withdrawn to stamp out fires back home.
Third, speaking of back home, this all gives spooky echoes of Indonesia’s darker days under the late dictator, Suharto, who happened to be the ex father-in-law to today’s president Prabowo, who still denies committing atrocities as Suharto’s special forces chief.
Fourth, there are also some futuristic echoes in the way China’s TikTok has “voluntarily” suspended services folks were using to track the protests. TikTok execs wouldn’t want angry local regulators to again ban the platform in its biggest market (alongside the US).
And fifth, the mayhem has indeed spooked markets, with investors pulling enough cash to send both the rupiah and Indonesia’s main equities index down. But for the finance minister herself to get caught up in this? A little poetic: her stellar market reputation as a former IMF big-wig was already in doubt after she rubber-stamped Prabowo’s odd fiscal plans earlier this year. But if she isn’t safe from all this chaos, investors will wonder who is.