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Intrigue

Will Lebanon finally get a president?

By John Fowler, Jeremy Dicker and Helen Zhang

In politics, you gotta keep your record squeaky-clean. Stole a kid’s chocolate milk in first grade? You’re out. Sent a silly tweet in 2010? Don’t even think about it.

It’s tough anywhere, but in Lebanon, picking a president is tougher. So tough, in fact, that Lebanese lawmakers have tried and failed to pick a president 12 times since October 2022. 

Enter General Joseph Aoun, who’s led the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) since 2017, and who’s now gearing up to swap his fatigues for a presidential sash. The constitution bars military brass from holding the presidency, meaning Aoun needs to wriggle through the loophole of a two-thirds vote in the legislature (that’s 86 votes).

But first, if you’re wondering what’s so special about Aoun, some would say he’s simply mastered the art of blooming where planted.

Consider the past 17 months — the once-dominant Hezbollah’s influence has waned as Israel has 1) decimated its leadership all the way to the top, 2) compromised its command and logistics via pager attacks, and 3) forced it into a ceasefire that includes withdrawing from Israel’s border (as demanded by the UN Security Council in 2006). 

And things just got worse for the Iran-backed group last month when Syria’s Assad fled to Moscow, effectively severing Tehran’s supply routes to Hezbollah — there are fears Iranian diplomats are now trying to help Hezbollah by abusing diplomatic immunity instead.

Anyway, beaten back by Israel and semi-abandoned by Iran, Hezbollah — once unthinkably opposed to Aoun — is now potentially too weak to block him. A top Hezbollah official emerged briefly from hiding to confirm it wouldn’t (or couldn’t).

Now, consider the past few weeks — it’s been a rush of players trying to fill the vacuum:

Together with the Qataris, who grabbed their selfie with Aoun last month, these players make up the ‘Quintet’ who’ve been working to help broker consensus around a new president.

Iran is milking that foreign role to foster more local resentment, though Aoun makes sense for many locals because he can a) control the LAF, which now needs to stabilise Lebanon, and b) the LAF has long been backed by Washington to help squeeze out Hezbollah, making Aoun a known entity for some of the world’s richest countries who’ll be needed for reconstruction (the Quintet members are variously US allies). 

And finally, consider the past 24 hours — Hezbollah's favoured candidate for the presidency just dropped out and endorsed Aoun, whose path to victory is now much clearer.

So there are no guarantees in Lebanese politics, and Aoun just got 71 votes in the first round a few minutes ago (short of the 86 he needs). But the word we’re getting is he’s still likely to emerge as president later today.

And that’s when the hard part really starts: seeking international investment to rebuild Lebanon, while his central banker sits in jail.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

A few weeks ago, we saw footage of Aoun arriving at a local community to cheers and showers of rice from onlookers — a gesture of respect and celebration. Why?

He’s a hero to many, after expelling ISIS and al-Nusra Front from Lebanon’s border with Syria in 2017; maintaining the army’s integrity while other national institutions crumbled; and refusing to crack down when widespread anti-corruption protests broke out. To the contrary, he went viral with a speech channelling protestor frustrations.

And yet, several of our friends who’ve served in Lebanon surprised us with their reaction overnight — notwithstanding the situation above, they’re despondent. After all Lebanon has suffered over the decades, they’ll only believe this when they see it.

And see it, maybe they will.

Also worth noting:

  • Aoun was due to retire last year, but Lebanon’s legislature has extended his term twice. He’s fluent in Arabic, French, and English.

  • Lebanon’s 1943 ‘National Pact’ stipulates that the president and military chief must be Maronite Christian (like Aoun), the prime minister must be Sunni, and the speaker must be Shia.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

  1. 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: President Aliyev has accused Russia of orchestrating a “cover up” of the downing of an Azerbaijani airliner by Russian air defences last month. Relations between Baku and Moscow have always been tricky (Russia typically held closer ties with rival Armenia), but they’re now going south over this incident.

  2. 🇮🇹 Italy: Iranian authorities have freed Italian journalist Cecilia Sala, after detaining her on unspecified charges since 19 December. We’ll be waiting to see whether Italian authorities now release Mohammad Abedini, after arresting him on a US request just days before Sala’s arrest above. 

  3. 🇹🇭 Thailand: Bangkok has introduced a ban on the import of plastic waste, to address concerns around toxic pollution. Thailand became a top destination for plastic waste exports from the EU, US, UK, and Japan after China imposed a ban in 2017-18.

  4. 🇧🇷 Brazil: According to Reuters, investigators have accused China-based EV company BYD of bringing hundreds of Chinese workers on irregular visas to build a factory in Brazil. Local authorities claim BYD was using over 150 such workers, hired via a contractor and placed in “slavery-like conditions”. 

  5. 🇬🇭 Ghana: John Mahama has taken the oath of office to return as president for the third time, in a ceremony attended by around 20 African leaders. Mahama will now have to confront his predecessor’s legacy, including a deep economic crisis and debt default.