Will Syria boot Russia out?

Western diplomats and Gulf partners have flocked to Damascus since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, snapping photos with the new caretaker government. But Assad’s long-time backer, Russia, has been awfully quiet. At least until Tuesday. 

That’s when Russia’s deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Putin’s special presidential envoy to Syria Aleksandr Lavrentiev touched down in Damascus and shook hands with Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa.

It’s a remarkable image above because, in just a few weeks, Russia has gone from bombing al-Sharaa on behalf of Assad, to greeting al-Sharaa while Assad hides in Moscow.

Since seizing power, Al-Sharaa has chosen his words carefully when discussing Russia, calling it “an important country”, and even opposing any instant eviction of the Russians from bases in Syria’s Tartus and Latakia. But he hasn’t exactly encouraged the Russians to visit, either.

So, what’s Moscow’s pitch?

According to Russian state outlets, Bogdanov has framed his visit as a continuation of long-standing ties, but wow — that’s a hard sell when those ties involved you bombing Syrian cities to defend a guy who then had to flee to Moscow in disgrace.

And while Assad was almost completely reliant on Russia for airstrikes, arms, and diplomatic cover to keep his regime afloat, this new rebel-led administration now has many more options –  the Turks, Saudis, Qataris, Europeans, and Americans have all moved to engage Syria’s new rulers, bestowing legitimacy and promises of help.

So, what’s Moscow now doing back in Syria?

1. Bases: Russia’s naval base in Tartus and airbase in Latakia are its only major footholds beyond its former Soviet borders, let alone in the Mediterranean. And aside from its naval base in Crimea (now a no-go due to Ukrainian counter-attacks), Tartus has been Russia’s only warm-water port in the world — ie, it doesn’t freeze over.

2. Influence: Those bases extend Russian influence not only across Syria, but also:

• Europe, which has to divide its bandwidth across more Russian movements
• The Middle East, where Russia maintains ties with Iran, the Houthis, and others
• Africa, where Russian mercenaries rely on transhipment via Latakia, and
• Beyond, where these bases are intended as a signal that Russia is a great power.

3. Money: Over the past decade of war, Russia has taken stakes in Syria’s oil, gas, and phosphate sectors, awarding lucrative contracts to its own key oligarchs — eg, remember Yevgeny Prigozhin of ‘Wagner mutiny’ fame? Before his plane exploded north of Moscow, Prigozhin was earning ~$20M a month from Syrian oil extraction alone. And money isn’t just money — in Russia, Putin doles it out to help bolster his grip on power.

So you can see why getting booted out of these bases and Syria more broadly would be a critical loss not just for Russia generally, but Putin specifically — he was the driver of Russia’s failed pro-Assad strategy, after all.

So, what does Free Syria now want with Russia?

1. Assad:The ex-dictator probably figured he’d eke out his days crushing Caspian caviar at some lush compound in Moscow’s Beverly Hills (Rublyovka). But there are now reports Syria is demanding Russia send him back. To be clear, we doubt they’re offering him an exciting new professional development opportunity.

And sure, the Russians might be reluctant to hand Assad over given the signal it sends about Moscow’s dependability. And Putin himself might be reluctant to hand him over given the precedent it sets for, ahem, dictators one day being held to account.

Still, when asked, the Kremlin’s spokesperson simply said “I leave this without any comments.” And that’s the kind of answer that’ll terrify Assad. Then there’s…

2. Damages:Reports have also emerged that Syria’s caretaker government wants Russian compensation for Assad’s Russian-backed crimes. And finally, there’s…

3. Know-how:Not only are most of Syria’s arms Russian, but most of its power plants are Russian-run, too. And now that al-Sharaa is running the place rather than running a rebellion, he might need Russian know-how to get things done, at least in the interim.

So when you think about it, this fledgling new administration in Syria actually has some serious leverage in talks with Russia, and we might see it drive a hard bargain ahead.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

It’s all about the leverage. And that’s why we were intrigued to see the EU just announce on Monday it’s now arguably giving up its own leverage by lifting sanctions on Syria over the coming year. Sure, in a nod to EU values there’s talk of a snap-back if Syria’s new rulers mistreat women or minorities. And ditching sanctions will surely help the Syrian people on their long road to recovery ahead.

But at the same time, there doesn’t seem to be much emphasis on EU interests, which would surely include not having Russian bases perched just across the Caribbean.

Also worth noting:

• Syria has reportedly cancelled a long-term Russian commercial lease over Tartus port, and Russian ships have now withdrawn heavy military equipment from the area, but the specific fate of the Russian base there remains unclear.
• Al-Sharaa’s caretaker government has pledged to convene a national dialogue conference, though there’s no confirmed date yet.
• The US previously had a $10M bounty on al-Sharaa but scrapped it within minutes of senior US diplomat Barbara Leaf meeting the de-facto leader last month.