Your primer on this Sunday’s German elections

Up to 60 million eligible voters will head to the polls in Germany to elect 630 members of the Bundestag this Sunday. Our very own Kristen has been on the ground (and speaks ze lingo), to get you what you need to know.

First, the issues dominating the race — 

• Immigration. Gone are the days when Angela Merkel declared “Wir schaffen das!” (we can do it!) as she welcomed a million or more migrants fleeing war-torn Syria, Afghanistan, and beyond. In fact, some 68% of folks now believe Germany should now take in fewer migrants, and the hardline populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) scored its first major win in 2017 after making that call early. These days, the need for some kind of immigration reform is arguably the one point all major political parties agree on, cemented by a recent string of violent attacks.
• The economy. Meanwhile, households and businesses alike are pinching their pockets as record energy prices, historic auto layoffs, and competition from China all bite, while Bundesbank gurus have begun crunching the numbers on possible US tariffs, foreshadowing a more grim outlook ahead. That might explain why only 12.6% of German firms expect things to get better this year.   
• Ukraine.Relatedly, remember the “Schuldenbremse”? That’s the debt brake which limits Germany’s deficit (and therefore its ability to, say, invest in infrastructure or support Ukraine) to 0.35% of GDP. A dispute over that rule is what caused Germany’s coalition to collapse last year, leading to this Sunday’s elections. Most Germans still support backing Ukraine’s self-defence, but majorities have also typically seen the debt brake as sacrosanct, though polls suggest that’s easing. 

And that leads us to the proposed answers (listed in polling order)…

1. Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), polling at 30%

The face of the party is Friedrich Merz, widely tipped to end up as Germany’s next chancellor. So much so, in fact, that a moderator at last week’s Munich Security Conference even accidentally (?) introduced him as chancellor!

Under Merz’s leadership, the CDU has flagged an openness to easing the debt brake, while advocating for tougher migration laws, continued support for Ukraine, and reduced economic dependence on China (part of what he calls an “axis of autocracies”).

Notable quote:“The most important strategic priority is (…) the restoration of deterrence and defence capabilities”

2. Alternative for Germany (AfD), polling at 21%

The face of the AfD is Alice Weidel, an ex-banker with a PhD in international development who’s fluent in Mandarin (and English), and is raising two sons with her Sri Lankan-born film-maker wife in Switzerland. Now, that’s the type of bio you might assume leans left, but Weidel’s nationalist-populist platform has included: 

• Closed borders and “remigration” (understood to mean deportations)
• A German exit from the Paris climate pact and even the EU itself (though Weidel has semi-walked back the latter)
• No touching the debt brake, plus
• Halting aid to Ukraine while also resuming purchases of Russian gas.

All other major German parties have implemented a “firewall” against working with the AfD due to its extremist links — eg, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has placed part of the AfD under surveillance as an extremist and anti-constitutional group; and courts have twice fined an AfD state-level leader for using a Nazi slogan.

That might explain some of the local shock after Elon Musk endorsed the AfD and the US VP met Weidel during last week’s visit to Munich (while snubbing Germany’s current leader).

Notable quote: “We have friends in the West and the East”

3. Social Democrats (SPD), polling at 16% 

Olaf Scholz is Germany’s current chancellor and the face of his party but, if polls are to be believed, not for much longer. He favours:

• Easing the debt brake, plus gradual economic reforms
• Reforms to immigration laws (without alienating his more centre-left base), and
• A continuation of his steadfast-yet-cautious support for Ukraine.

He’s the incumbent at a tough time, who’s copped criticism for being too hesitant and risk-averse while trying to hold his unlikely ex-coalition together.

Notable quote:“We need to win confidence back”

4. Greens, polling at 13%

While you might’ve heard more about Annalena Baerbock (Germany’s foreign minister), it’s economy and environment minister Robert Habeck who’s the lead Greens candidate: 

• His party backs easing the debt brake
• He’s open to immigration reforms without being anti-immigration, and
• He supports continued aid to Ukraine (plus is wary of China’s authoritarianism).

Notable quote: “I’m 55 years old and have lived in a country where security and prosperity seemed guaranteed”

As for the other smaller parties, polls suggest most will struggle to reach the 5% threshold to get a seat in the Bundestag. The strongest might be The Left party, which is enjoying a recent surge from young voters after a rising star went viral for dunking on the front-runner (Merz) when he accepted AfD votes on his immigration proposals.

So what’s gonna happen? Given the firewall against the AfD, most see Merz emerging atop a grand coalition as the most likely outcome this Sunday — the exact make-up of any coalition will determine how decisive he can then be in tackling Germany’s mounting political, economic, and geopolitical challenges.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

It’s been a brutal final week in Germany as campaigns flood the airwaves and plaster every town — big and small — with posters per Kristen’s pic above. And speaking of photos, there was an incident outside an AfD campaign event this week as Intrigue tried to take a pic of loud counter-protests while AfD folks angled to get inside — an AfD supporter snapped, warning that they didn’t want to be pictured at the event.

It was all a reminder not only of the tension in the air, but also the difficulty in measuring support for a party like the AfD. And JD Vance’s decision to meet the AfD’s leader (but not Scholz) a week before election day might’ve nudged things either way:

• Perhaps it removed stigma around supporting the AfD, and/or
• Maybe it just fuelled irritation at US interference.

We’ll get an answer from Sunday.

Also worth noting:

• A single party needs to win more than 50% of the seats to rule outright, something that’s never happened in recent history. Given Germany’s challenges, there’s real public (and broader European) pressure to finalise the inevitable post-election coalition-forming process asap.