The Munich Security Conference in three quotes

As you read this, European leaders are huddled in Paris trying to figure out their next move after the weekend’s historic Munich Security Conference. 

Across the pond, US officials are coordinating with Saudi Arabia to organise the first talks with Moscow later this week while Kyiv isn’t (yet?)  invited – it’s been a long weekend, strap in. 

Intrigue was in Munich too, so here are three of the biggest quotes from one of the world’s top security conferences to get you up to speed:

1. “What I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America” – US Vice President JD Vance

While many expected Vance to address Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, he hardly mentioned it. Sure, the VP told The Wall Street Journal that Russia’s war was the subtext of his remarks, but as for the actual text? One European official summed it up to Intrigue as Vance “scolding Europeans on democracy”, with references to (for example)…

• i) Romania’s election do-over after Russia’s TikTok interference — Vance argued, “if your democracy can be destroyed with a few hundred thousand dollars of digital advertising from a foreign country, then it wasn’t very strong to begin with”, and
• ii) He also described the Conference’s move to ban two German parties (the left-populist BSW and right-populist AfD) as undermining freedom of speech.

Vance’s remarks earned cheers from his base back home, but his audience in Europe? Not so much. Point b) in particular really hit a nerve in Germany, where security services have actually classified parts of the AfD as extremist; conference organisers then banned both parties after they walked out during last year’s Bundestag address by Ukraine’s Zelensky — seen as a breach of Munich’s founding principle of peace through dialogue.

Anyway, while debate around immigration is now fairly mainstream in Germany, any allure of the AfD’s promised hardline approach might’ve been blunted by resentment at what German leader Olaf Scholz later slammed as unacceptable US interference ahead of elections this Sunday (some polls put the AfD in second place).

Meanwhile at a background briefing for German media (extended to Intrigue because our very own Kristen speaks deutsch 💅), a German military official tried valiantly to re-focus everyone’s attention back on how the West should jointly respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine rather than Vance’s views on EU politics. But to no avail.

2. “I really believe that time has come. The Armed Forces of Europe must be created” – Ukrainian President Zelenskyy

If Europeans saw Vance as the grinch, Zelenskyy was the star, injecting passion into a weekend that otherwise seemed marked by stunned silence. And he used his speech to make the above call for Europe to create its own united armed forces in response to two drivers:

• i) First he was, of course, partly responding to Russia’s invasion, including its use of an Iranian drone to hit the Chernobyl nuclear plant the night before Munich — for Zelensky, “a country that launches such attacks does not want peace.” But also…
• ii) Zelensky was responding to US messages (including from Vance) suggesting that “decades of the old relationship between Europe and America are ending.”

Yet Zelensky was careful in his word-choice, arguing not so much that Europe should now go it alone, but rather “make America want to stand with a strong Europe.” Speaking of which…

3. “To be very candid with you, I do not speak for the President of the United States, the President speaks for himself” — US General Kellogg, Special Envoy for Russia and Ukraine 

This was an intriguing remark because after US envoys like Vance, Hegseth, and Kellogg all variously foreshadowed a reduced US security presence in Europe, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio then signed the latest G7 statement, which still sounded much more like the US of yore, reaffirming “unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its freedom, sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.”

Vance seemingly alluded to this in his interview with the WSJ, saying “we believe in free speech, and even people who work in our government…They’re speaking for themselves.”

But the net result, according to various European officials we spoke to, has been a moment of confusion across the continent — they’re not sure which US envoy to listen to.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

You may notice we haven’t included any quotes from an EU leader above, and it’s not for a lack of trying, believe us. We listened to the speeches, worked the corridors, and took careful notes. But rather than any quote we heard, we were struck by something we saw: a delegate simply stopped taking notes halfway through the speech by the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen. Why? Because it was more or less the same speech von der Leyen and colleagues have delivered for years.

And that’s a little jarring at this point because, while Europe keeps declaring each new development as a wake-up call, the US has now delivered the ultimate wake-up call:

• Defense Secretary Hegseth, for example, essentially just declared that the US can’t protect Europe because it’s gotta focus on China, and
• VP Vance has now hinted that the US might not want to defend Europe given their purported divergence in values.

But whether it’s a case of can’t or won’t, the end result is the same. And yet somehow, everyone still left Munich wondering who’ll now lead Europe’s response.

Also worth noting:

• Lest you think it was all Russia/US, the DR Congo’s Felix Tshisekedi was there too, accusing Rwanda of having “repeatedly provoked” instability. Rwandan defence chief Juvenal Marizamunda then stood up in the audience during question time, arguing “Rwanda has nothing to gain from an unstable DRC.”
• Syria’s foreign minister (al-Shaibani) also spoke on a panel with Turkey’s Hakan Fidan, but this session took a while to fill up — you could take that as evidence that events might’ve somehow already bumped Syria off the front page.