Is Syria descending back into civil war?

Ever since December’s ousting of Syria’s long-time dictator Bashar al-Assad, we’ve openly pondered how long the triumphant rebel leader replacing Assad at the top (Ahmed al-Sharaa) might be able (or even willing) to hold an unwieldy place like Syria together.

• Was his 2016 road-to-Damascus conversion to cut his al-Qaeda ties legit, or is he now just giving that same ideology a new technocratic suit?
• Could he and his band of perhaps 30,000 armed followers realistically impose order on a wildly diverse country of 24 million people?
• And stemming from the first two questions above, will Syria’s minorities (including Alawites, Druze, Christians, and Kurds) have a future in al-Sharaa’s Syria?

Well, after this weekend, those questions are now looking a little less hypothetical.

What’s happened? This whole space is awash with agendas and the fog of war, but here’s the clearest picture we can paint right now:

First, after persistent rumbles of pro-Assad figures refusing to lay down their arms, Assad’s loyalists suddenly mounted ambushes Thursday against al-Sharaa’s forces across Syria’s coastal strongholds of the Alawites (Assad’s minority Islam offshoot).

Violence then erupted across the coastal cities of Latakia, Jableh and Banias:

• Pro-al-Sharaa Sunni-majority groups committed massacres they variously described (on camera) as either revenge for a) Thursday’s attacks, b) Assad’s decades of crimes, and/or c) just belonging to the wrong tribe
• Foreign jihadis who’ve supported al-Sharaa (without necessarily answering to him) also committed atrocities against Alawites and others they described (on camera) as infidels and/or traitors, and
• There are reports the resurgent Assad loyalists themselves (including notorious war criminals) even killed fellow Alawites in villages that then refused to help.

Second, as folks count their dead (hundreds at least), the blame game is now playing out:

• The fact some of the pro-Assad ambushes took place near a Russian-controlled airbase has fuelled claims of support from Russia, Iran, and/or Hezbollah
• Others are blaming an inevitable power vacuum caused by al-Sharaa disbanding too many of Assad’s security forces after seizing power, and
• Still others see this all as evidence that the factions propping up al-Sharaa are finally revealing their true jihadi colours.

And third, there’s now also some major ‘told you so’ vibes playing out:

• Israel has cited the weekend’s massacres as evidence that “jihadists in suits are still jihadists” (a reference to al-Sharaa ditching his fatigues since seizing power)
• The US has likewise condemned jihadis for the weekend’s killing spree, and
• Specifically, supporters of Trump and his new spymaster (Tulsi Gabbard) have highlighted their respective years of scepticism towards all rebel groups in Syria.

Meanwhile, there’s been relative silence from Turkey, which is not surprising when you realise they’ve been a top external backer of a guy (al-Sharaa) whose supporters are now facing serious allegations of mass atrocities against Syria’s minorities.

As for al-Sharaa himself? 

He’s released a video skirting around the allegations against his supporters, but reiterating his commitment to national unity, and pledging to hold the perpetrators to account. “We have to preserve national unity and domestic peace. We can live together.”

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

This whole ugly episode exposes just a few of the many tensions at the heart of fledgling post-Assad Syria. Here are three —

• Al-Sharaa’s movement: he’s promising a friendlier, technocratic form of Islamist rule, but seemingly relying on Jihadis to help deliver it
• Transitional justice: he’s promising security and stability, but also accountability for past crimes, two aims that have sometimes worked at cross-purposes historically, and…
• Democracy: Assad’s Alawites made enemies ruling the country for decades, but they’re now 10% of Syria’s Sunni-majority population, a combustible situation potentially requiring either a strong state or a strong democratic tradition (neither present right now) to avert disaster.

Also worth noting:

• While Syria’s violence played out over the weekend, neighbouring Jordan hosted a regional conference seeking solutions around Syria’s security, reconstruction, and refugees. The resulting joint statement is light on detail.
• The US, the EU, and others variously cited the protection of minorities as a condition for the removal of Assad-era sanctions.