Is the CIA about to topple Maduro?

Anyone familiar with life in a foreign ministry or any big organisation will be painfully familiar with the ‘compliment sandwich’: soften that feedback by saying something nice!

So let’s start this briefing up-front with a thin slice of stale sourdough acknowledging one area where Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro has clearly excelled: he has good hair.

As for the meaty reason we’ve called this meeting? President Trump raised a few eyebrows Wednesday when he confirmed NYT reports he’d authorised lethal covert CIA operations in Venezuela, and was even considering strikes on Venezuelan territory! 

So, is Trump now gunning to force regime change in Venezuela?

Let’s kick off with the (dwindling) ‘no’ camp.

First, even some in Trump’s circle (including his top guy on Venezuela, Ric Grenell) are arguing there’s still time for diplomacy to do its thing here.

Second, we imagine Grenell and others will be warning of the risks of yet another direct US intervention in Latin America, whether in irking Trump’s own anti-interventionist base at home, further entrenching Maduro’s grip given the military’s apparent loyalty, or playing into Moscow and Beijing’s broader narratives of US bullying and volatility.

And third, if you’re actually pulling a top secret trigger to oust or assassinate Maduro, you don’t usually announce it on prime-time TV beforehand. Or at least… we wouldn’t?

Anyway, that’s a wrap of how this all might just be a bravado-flex to pressure Maduro into concessions, whether a peaceful transition to last year’s actual election winner (Edmundo González) or even just more pinkie promises to respect the next election.

Meanwhile, the ‘yes’ camp (ie, Trump will force Maduro out) is getting bigger.

First, there’s Trump’s motive. Following Venezuela’s economic collapse, an increasingly desperate Maduro has clung to power, stolen elections, and cosied up to fellow US rivals like Putin, Xi, and even Iran’s mullahs. Meanwhile, Trump’s instincts, his Panama Canal moves, and his draft defence strategy all point to him wanting a USA on top in the region.

Second, there’s the words: Trump has been notably fixated on Maduro since Trump 1.0, but he’s really ramped up his rhetoric since returning to the White House this year, labelling the Venezuelan strongman a drug-lord and even a terrorist.

Third, he’s backed that rhetorical ramp-up with actions, doubling his Maduro bounty to $50M, and deploying a massive military presence to the Caribbean that’s now hit five or six alleged narco-boats off Venezuela, leaving 27 dead — it’s sparking not just outrage in DC, but also seemingly now the departure of the new-ish top US commander.

And finally, there are the purported (and contested) legal justifications congealing not just around Maduro being a narco-terrorist, but also (say) the possibility of last year’s election-winner (González) giving Venezuelan consent to any US military action on his national turf — he and Nobel laureate Corina Machado are in close touch with the US.

Anyway, all of the above — with a US president riding high on a Gaza win, and getting a feel for the trigger after his Iran hits — points to Trump maybe using force to oust Maduro.

Oh, and we promised a compliment sandwich, so let’s wrap this meeting up with one final piece of sourdough, shall we? Maduro has a very good moustache.

Intrigue’s Take

So… is the ‘yes’ or ‘no’ camp right here? Our sense is they’re both right, and Trump’s team is now scaling up from one to the other until the president gets the outcome his team is now privately confirming he wants: one way or another, he wants Maduro gone.

And there are reports this scale-up might already be working. The Miami Times (from the US city now hosting several Venezuelan opposition figures) is reporting Maduro has now authorised two offers to the US via Qatar, with him stepping aside in favour of two lieutenants, the Rodriguez siblings (Delcy is his veep, and Jorge is his house speaker).

But interestingly, the folks from the Miami Herald report the White House has said no. Why? This kind of arrangement would fundamentally preserve Maduro’s same illegitimate regime, but just give it a fresh face. And even that fresh Rodriguez face (with Maduro exiled to Turkey or Qatar) is still marred by persistent claims of trafficking and laundering.

So what’s the alternative? There are also persistent reports Venezuela’s opposition (including this year’s Nobel laureate) is in the midst of detailed planning for a smooth transition of power after Maduro is gone. And maybe that brings us to where we started: it seems increasingly plausible Maduro’s days are numbered. We just don’t know how.

Sound even smarter:

• If you’re interested, Americas Quarterly just ran an interesting piece on China’s winning military diplomacy strategy across Latin America.