Turkey heads to an election runoff


Briefly: Turkey’s highly anticipated presidential election will likely go to a run-off on 28 May, with initial results from the first round yesterday (Sunday) showing no candidate with the 50% of votes necessary to win outright.

Some polls had hinted that incumbent strongman President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could lose, but he ended up with 49.2% of the vote, compared with 45% for opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (pronounced kilitch-dah-rolu).

Why’s everyone so focused on Turkey’s election?

  • ⚔️ It’s got NATO’s second largest military
  • 🧑‍🤝‍🧑 It’s home to more than 88 million people
  • 🌍 It straddles Europe, Asia and the Middle East, and
  • 🥾 This is the closest Erdoğan has come to losing power

And why’s Erdoğan faced such a tough election?

  • 📉 Erdoğan’s unorthodox policies have contributed to a currency collapse and soaring inflation, with many Turks now struggling, and
  • ✊ Erdoğan’s critics say the populist leader has weakened Turkey’s institutions and steered the country away from its secular roots

So… any change in Ankara could be felt around the world. The thing is, we don’t really know how. The opposition contains nationalist, leftist and conservative parties, so its vision for Turkey’s role in the world isn’t always entirely clear.

Intrigue’s take: Erdoğan has long been a tough and wily negotiator on the international stage (just ask Sweden, whose NATO membership he’s vetoed). So, several world leaders will have hoped to see the back of him at this election.

But the opposition now has a tough slog to close that gap before 28 May. So betting markets are wagering Erdoğan’s time on the world stage isn’t over yet.

Also worth noting:

  • Voter turnout came in at around 88% yesterday. That compares to 84% in the last Swedish election, and around 67% in the UK and the US.
  • To go deeper on what’s at stake in this election, we highly recommend this episode of One Decision with Julia Macfarlane, featuring Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 chief), David Satterfield (former US Ambassador to Turkey) and Gonul Tol (Turkish academic and author).
Latest Author Articles
The pope’s geopolitical legacy

For centuries, popes hardly ventured beyond Rome, with the occasional epic exception like Pius VII, who only left town because Napoleon abducted him! But the jet era — and a 1929 treaty establishing Vatican statehood — changed all that. Enter Pope Francis. With a 2013 arrival full of pope-firsts (the first Jesuit, the first from […]

22 April, 2025
A moron premium in the US?

We’ve been writing about bonds before they were the flavour of the week. And events now dictate that we revisit bonds again. Who are we to argue with events, dear Intriguer? Typically if US stocks tank, spooked investors will shift their cash over into bonds — the ultimate safe-haven. Why? When you buy bonds (loan the US government money), […]

14 April, 2025
Did Trump just blink?

Just after our last edition hit your inbox, Donald Trump decided to: Of course, markets breathed a semi-sigh of relief. But… did Trump blink? Stay on top of your world from inside your inbox. Subscribe for free today and receive way much more insights. Trusted by 123,000+ subscribers Email(Required) Hidden utm_source Hidden utm_page Hidden utm_medium […]

10 April, 2025
Trump and Xi play chicken

We’ve already explored Trump’s tariffs, but it’s worth a quick recap of his rationale before we tour today’s wild ripple effects: And while he’s now slapped tariffs on everyone (otherwise he says China just reroutes via third countries), the big kahuna tariffs are now really on China. Building on earlier tariff rounds during Trump 1.0 and Biden… The […]

9 April, 2025