2022: Year in Review
Xi’s third term, the Russo-Ukraine War, the Solomon Islands security deal, Latin America’s leftist leaders, and the end of the Ethiopian Civil War.
Hi there Intriguer. Welcome to our recap of the biggest international stories of the year. We’ve chosen five of the most consequential geopolitical events of 2022, one from each region of the world. Don’t forget to tell us your predictions for 2023 by voting in the polls at the bottom of each story. But first…
A short obituary for 2022
2022, as we look at you stretched out before us, it must be said that your very worst self was on full display in February when Russia invaded Ukraine. And let us not forget that North Korea was very poorly behaved during you, shooting off rockets and scaring the bejesus out of its neighbours.
We must also register our intense annoyance that you made us worry about World War III breaking out (during summer, no less), all because an American politician decided to visit a small island in Asia.
Still, we must not speak ill of the (nearly) departed. If we squint, perhaps the war in Ukraine will usher in a greener future ahead of schedule? And more countries seem to be moving past the pandemic and getting back to normal, whatever that means these days. Oh, and you did bring the end of a terrible war in Ethiopia, so that is an unambiguously good thing.
But when we zoom out on you, 2022, it’s hard to feel good about your 12 months on this earth. To make it up to us, perhaps on your way out you could put in a good word with 2023? Thanks, from all of us.
1. NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA
💪 Xi Jinping ran the table at the 20th Party Congress
The story: It’s impossible to choose just one China story, given how central the country was to most global events in 2022. Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August, and was met with sound and fury from Beijing. There were heavy Covid lockdowns across China to start the year, and now Chinese authorities are ending the year by “letting the virus rip”. And, in what might be the most overlooked story, the US cut China out of the leading-edge semiconductor supply chains in October. Knitting all those events together is President Xi Jinping, who re-anointed himself as president for at least another five years (probably longer) during the 20th Party Congress in October.
Why it matters: Xi Jinping has been very clear about his vision for China and how he intends to achieve it. Xi has now installed competent loyalists in every position of power within the Communist Party, so we should expect him to continue to try to reshape the global order to better accommodate China’s interests. Taiwanese reunification will remain one of his highest priorities, as well as domestic stability and de-risking the economy.
Other notable stories:
- North Korea has been firing missiles into the sea for fun this year, doing a lot to convince Japan and South Korea to harden their security postures.
- The Taliban completely reneged on promises to govern Afghanistan more moderately.
- More than 1700 people died and one-third of Pakistan was underwater in September as it suffered the worst floods in its history.
Which of these events do you think is most likely next year?Vote!
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2. EUROPE
🪖 Russia invaded Ukraine
The story: In the early hours of 24 February 2022, after months of military build-up and veiled threats that too few took seriously, Russia invaded Ukraine. The Kremlin’s military intervention was widely condemned and triggered a barrage of economic sanctions from the US, Europe, and their allies. Hundreds of thousands of casualties later, Russia is no closer to achieving its original goal of regime change in Kyiv, but it has managed to commit war crimes, throw the global energy market into chaos, and strengthen NATO.
Why it matters: Aside from the horrific toll the war is exacting on Ukrainians, it’s also been really bad for the world’s economy. Since February, oil and natural gas prices have skyrocketed, triggering a global energy crisis that has sent shock waves across the world. Oil-exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar have seen their economic and diplomatic leverage increase overnight, while Russia’s economic interests migrated eastward towards India and China. But that’s not all; European nations are working overtime to shift their energy supplies towards renewables, thus turbocharging the green transition “into an extraordinary new phase”.
Other notable stories:
- Two mysterious explosions hit the Nord Stream pipelines in September, but we still don’t know who did it.
- Right-wingers won power in Italy and Sweden, while Macron held on to power in France.
- A head of lettuce outlasted UK Prime Minister Liz Truss.
Which of these events do you think is most likely next year?Vote!
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3. SOUTHEAST ASIA & THE PACIFIC
🤝 Solomon Islands set a cat among the pigeons
The story: In April 2022, the Solomon Islands signed an agreement with China to bolster security and humanitarian cooperation following deadly anti-Beijing protests on the islands five months prior. The deal allows Solomon Island officials to request Chinese security assistance to “[maintain] social order”, and lays the groundwork to expand China’s presence on the islands.
Why it matters: Even though Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has rejected suggestions that the deal will serve as a prelude to a Chinese military base, the pact still gives China its strongest foothold yet in the Pacific. The Solomon Islands’ security and trade partners (primarily Australia and New Zealand) hate the deal, and are increasing their naval capability in response. China is also growing its influence in subtler ways, including by facilitating a $70M deal between the Solomon Islands and state-backed telecoms giant Huawei. For all that happened in Europe this year, the Indo-Pacific remains the geopolitical centre of gravity (at least in our opinion!).
Other notable stories:
- Protestors in Sri Lanka toppled the Prime Minister (and partied in the presidential palace).
- Myanmar’s former President Aung San Suu Kyi was sentenced to 26 years in jail.
- The government of Vanuatu was taken offline for weeks by hackers.
Which of these events do you think is most likely next year?Vote!
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4. THE AMERICAS
🌊 Is Latin America’s pink tide going out?
The story: Several left-wing candidates sailed to electoral victories across South America in 2022, building on left-wing wins in Peru and Chile in 2021. Gustavo Petro, a former guerilla fighter, became Colombia’s first-ever left-wing President when he took office in August. And, in a victory hailed by environmentalists, former Brazilian President Lula da Silva is back in the top job after defeating right-wing rival Jair Bolsonaro in an October runoff.
Why it matters: Latin America has been swept by left-wing candidates before – the first ‘pink tide’ washed up in the early 2000s when voters in Bolivia, Argentina, and Venezuela elected leftists. But those leaders were helped by a favourable macroeconomic environment and a far less politically polarised environment than exists today. Indeed, the downfall of the socialist Peruvian President Pedro Castillo earlier this month may signal that a new political epoch is on the horizon.
Other notable stories:
- Costa Rica was targeted by an enormous cyber attack.
- Chileans voted against a new constitution.
- Top Latin American leaders declined President Biden’s Summit of the Americas invitation, signalling a rejection of US leadership in the region.
Which of these events do you think is most likely next year?Vote!
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5. MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA
🕊️ The Ethiopian civil war ended
The story: The Ethiopian government agreed to a permanent ceasefire with rebels from the province of Tigray, ending a brutal two-year civil war. As part of the African Union-negotiated deal, Tigrayans agreed to lay down their arms and reintegrate into Ethiopian civil society. In return, the government agreed to reopen humanitarian corridors.
Why it matters: The ceasefire may save hundreds of thousands of lives and keep millions in their homes. The war exacerbated economic challenges in one of Africa’s most populous and prosperous economies, which had been growing at an average rate of 11% over the last decade and slowed to 3.8% in 2022, mainly due to the war. As Africa emerges from the pandemic, Ethiopia may yet again serve as a model of economic growth for the continent.
Other notable stories:
- Anti-regime protests have spread across Iran and are still going.
- Tunisia’s new constitution ended democracy in Tunisia, signalling the end of the Arab Spring.
- French forces ended their anti-insurgency operation in Mali.
Which of these events do you think is most likely next year?Vote!
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🥳 SEE YOU NEXT YEAR
Happy holidays from Team Intrigue!
Thanks for being an Intriguer. We appreciate each and everyone one of you!
