Did the US just ditch Ukraine?

As world leaders, chief diplomats, and defence leaders alike board their private jets to Munich today, just know that their teams are re-writing every briefing note and messaging strategy in the wake of Washington’s mic drop only hours ago. 

Here’s what happened. 

Speaking first from Brussels at the UK-chaired Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, the new US Defence Chief Pete Hegseth made clear Washington’s view on Ukraine: 

• Ukraine retaking its land from Russian occupation is “illusionary”
• NATO membership for Ukraine as part of a negotiated peace is not “realistic” 
• Rather, security guarantees must be led by European (and non-European) troops
• They should be under a non-NATO mission (ie, no mutual US defence pledge)
• There’ll be no US boots on the ground in Ukraine
• Europe must provide the “overwhelming share” of future help to Ukraine, and
• In parallel, the US is vowing more effective sanctions enforcement plus more US oil and gas production to drive down the prices that fund Russia’s war.

Hegseth defended his reasoning, arguing the US is “prioritizing deterring war with China in the Pacific, recognizing the reality of scarcity, and making the resourcing tradeoffs to ensure deterrence does not fail.” That means, he says, Europe must lead in Europe.

And as if that wasn’t already enough for the world to digest, President Trump himself then revealed he’s just held a nearly 90-minute phone call with Vladimir Putin. 

About what? Seemingly everything: “Ukraine, the Middle East, Energy, Artificial Intelligence, the power of the Dollar, and various other subjects”.    

But critically, the two world leaders apparently also agreed to start direct talks to end the Russo-Ukrainian war “immediately” and pledged to “work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations.” Trump later said they’ll meet in Saudi Arabia first. 

The president then answered questions in the Oval Office, including on whether Hegseth had just undermined Ukraine — Trump answered, “I’m backing Ukraine”, and “frankly we’ll go as long as we have to go” because otherwise Putin wins.

In parallel, his new treasury secretary Scott Bessent emerged in Kyiv on his first official trip abroad, proposing to President Zelensky a new US-Ukraine economic partnership as “an important signal to the world, to Russian leadership, that we stand together”.

So… that’s a lot of messages the world is still digesting right now, and leaders have been tentative in their initial responses, but let’s take a quick world tour, shall we?

• Ukraine: In a few minutes, Ukraine’s path to NATO went from “irreversible” to “unrealistic”; and Russian annexation of Ukrainian turf went from “never, never, never” getting recognised, to “illusionary” to reverse — though Ukrainians might find some solace in: a) Hegseth not specifically ending US assistance; b) Trump pushing back on suggestions he’s ditching Ukraine; and c) Bessent personally delivering a proposal for an economic partnership.
• Europe: In a few minutes, America’s 75-year-old pledge to protect Europe under NATO’s article 5 went from a “sacred commitment”, to the US no longer being “primarily focused on the security of Europe”, though Europeans might’ve taken some solace that Hegseth toned down his original prepared remarks, which had gone further by declaring the US was no longer “the primary guarantor of security in Europe”.
• Russia: And in a few minutes, Putin might’ve scored some wins before talks have even started — no NATO membership for Ukraine; de-facto US acceptance of his gains in Ukraine; the legitimacy that comes from a direct call (and possible in-person visit) with a US president; and a direct channel to negotiate Ukraine’s future with the US, seemingly over the heads of Ukraine and wider Europe; all jibing with Putin’s argument that this was just a US-Russia proxy war to begin with.

And so now all eyes are on tomorrow’s Munich Security Conference, where JD Vance and Marco Rubio will lead the next phase of talks for the US. Our very own John and Kristen are on the ground there and will keep Intriguers posted.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Something tells us future historians will pore over the remarks Pete Hegseth just dropped on his 19th day in office. Here are two (of many) possible histories they’ll see:

• Hegseth just empowered Europe to step up in its own defence and break the European cycle of dependency on the US, strengthening the Western alliance, halting the Russo-Ukraine war, and deterring a war in the Pacific, or
• Hegseth just rewarded Russia while abandoning Ukraine and broader Europe, emboldening Putin to keep pursuing his empire, ditto Xi in China, thus ushering in a wider conflict that US troops are then treaty-bound to enter.

A lot depends on what Ukraine and the Europeans do next.