Is there a genocide in Nigeria?

There are all kinds of reasons why Nigeria might pop up in your feed, whether as Africa’s largest democracy (230 million people), its top oil producer, or one of the continent’s biggest economies (thanks to a recent recalculation that boosted its GDP by 30% — could those same economists pls come and help us “recalculate” our revenue here at Intrigue).

But realistically, Nigeria is now hitting our feeds because of the ongoing violence (300+ more children kidnapped from a Catholic school just on Friday), and President Trump’s response (declaring some of the ongoing violence a genocide against Christians).

So… what’s going on?

With kaleidoscopic Nigeria hosting an absolute deluge of hyphens (ethnic-Fulani-Salafist-herder-nationalist-separatists!), it’s worth listening to each group’s words, starting with…

First, there are ISIS-linked groups like Boko Haram, with a name roughly translating to the catchy “Western education is a sin”. It’s a) Salafist (purist theology), b) jihadist (violent tactics), c) seeking its own hardline state in northern Nigeria, and d) ruthlessly exploiting local grievances to expand: think poverty, repression, and resource scarcity.

To be clear, the group openly targets Christians: its late founder (Yusuf) called Christians infidels deserving jihad; his successor (Shekau) vowed to “cleanse” Nigeria of Christians; and the group has still used convert-or-die ultimatums under its current leader Doro (though Niger claims it killed him in an August drone strike).

To be clear again, Boko Haram also kills vast numbers of Muslims who get in its way, variously labelling them apostates, collaborators, and/or collateral damage.

Second, there are criminal gangs (dubbed “bandits”), graduating from their earlier cattle rustling days to now carry out kidnappings, raids, and extortion across Nigeria’s north-west. Thriving in lawlessness and fuelled by arms out of Libya and the Sahel, the biggest bandit groups draw from the north’s ethnic-Fulani-Muslim-majority-herder-communities.

Absolute deluge of hyphens there, but what do these bandits themselves say?

• Their ransom demands mostly focus on cash, vehicles, and weapons
• Their victims include anyone who might have cash, vehicles, and weapons, and
• To the extent they frame their violence, it’s usually as “revenge”, though it’s hard to disentangle the bigotry when some attackers yell jihadi slogans.

Then third, Nigeria is also fighting long-running separatist movements, like the ethnic Igbo nationalists down south. This ‘Indigenous People of Biafra’ (IPOB) group targets state outposts in hopes of restoring the short-lived Republic of Biafra — Nigeria’s south-east is Christian-majority, though these separatists frame their hits in ethno-political terms.

Okay, then… what about President Trump’s response?

After (again) naming Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern on religious freedom, the US president has now warned Nigeria to halt persecution of Christians or he’ll deploy troops to “completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists.”

Trump’s UN ambassador also hosted rapper Nicki Minaj on this issue in New York last week. And a senior State official just told Congress there are other options in the mix, like sanctions and military engagement (seemingly now in cooperation with Nigeria).

DC’s objective? To “push the Nigerian government to take measurable steps that will improve security, accountability, and religious liberty.”

For its part, Nigeria rejects the genocide label, but says it welcomes US counter-terrorism help.

Intrigue’s Take

So… is there a genocide in Nigeria?

We founded Intrigue because, while some friends in the media might generate rage-clicks by pretending otherwise, smart people clearly can (and must) be able to hold multiple truths in their head at once. So we’d offer these humble truths:

First, Boko Haram itself makes clear it is genocidal. It’s weird to pretend otherwise.

Second, the West’s faith blindspot opens gaps for populists willing to use truth as red meat.

Third, there’s often a rush in the West to identify which hyphen applies to which attack, then milk the corresponding righteousness, outrage, and clicks. Yet the reality is that even crystal-clear hyphens like Boko Haram’s Salafist-jihadism leave broad-based devastation, while criminal networks carry out many of their own atrocities against anyone with cash.

And that brings us to…

Fourth, Nigeria tries to shape its responses to avoid exacerbating the hyphens — eg, it deploys mixed-ethnicity, mixed-religion units to a) promote national cohesion, and b) avoid playing into local grievances (like one group seemingly occupying the other).

But fifth, the numbers alone make clear Nigeria’s efforts just aren’t working: the bandit and jihadi toll for the first half of 2025 already exceeded the entire toll for 2024. So maybe the rest of the world just needed kidnappings, a rapper, or a rage tweet to pay attention?