Trump’s new foreign policy team takes shape

Winning an election is the easy bit. Then comes the actual job.

So Republicans and business leaders from all over the country have made the pilgrimage to Donald Trump’s Mar a Lago resort this past week hoping for a spot in his team, while the world tries to decipher what each new appointment means for the US, and the world.

Let’s take a look, shall we? 

• Marco Rubio as Secretary of State (unconfirmed) 

Word is that Florida Senator Marco Rubio will get the nod as the top US diplomat under Trump 2.0, though talks are ongoing. The son of Cuban immigrants, he delivered the GOP’s first-ever Spanish response to a State of the Union back in 2013 – you might recall his English version included a memorable, mid-sentence lunge for a water bottle.

Then, after bowing out of the Republican primaries in 2016, he ended up working closely with Trump 1.0 as an unofficial ‘Secretary of State for Latin America’. His family’s experiences with authoritarians have not only shaped his hawkish approach to Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, but also to Iran and China: in fact, he’s under two sets of Chinese sanctions for his views on Hong Kong democracy and Beijing’s treatment of the Uyghurs.

He’s also a staunch supporter of Israel, and his heated 2023 exchange with an anti-war group — featuring his description of Hamas as “vicious animals” — is going viral again.

As for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? Rubio is a resolute backer of Ukraine’s self-defence, and he co-sponsored a bill making it harder for US presidents to withdraw from NATO. Meanwhile, his procedural objections to the most recent US defence package for Ukraine (which then passed comfortably) were widely seen as an election year move to distance himself from an unpopular Biden.

• Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor

Mike Waltz has been a congressman for Florida since 2018, after serving as a Green Beret in Afghanistan, Africa, and the Middle East, plus a stint in the Pentagon.

He takes similarly hawkish positions to Rubio, but has also been co-chair of the Congressional India Caucus, prioritising closer US ties with India as a counter to a more assertive China, which he’s described as “the biggest threat America has ever faced.”

Waltz has also backed Ukraine’s self-defence against Russia, but has criticised Biden’s ‘as long as it takes’ approach — rather, his emphasis on ending the war and pivoting US attention to China. To that end, he’s variously called for the US to better enforce sanctions on Russia, flood markets with US gas to break Putin’s war machine, get European allies to do more, and “take the handcuffs off” Ukraine.

He once also co-sponsored a (doomed) bill authorising the US military to target cartels inside Mexico, prompting backlash from Mexico’s then-president.

• Pete Hegseth as Secretary for Defence

Hegseth is an Ivy Leaguer and a decorated combat veteran, though his relative youth (44), colourful private life, lobbying to pardon soldiers implicated in war crimes, and his last eight years as a TV host on Fox News, have all made this announcement more surprising.

But what does Hegseth believe? For a guy who’s been paid to talk on live TV for years, you could find a Hegseth quote to prove just about any point you want, though our sense is he (like Rubio and Waltz above) is hawkish on China and Iran, is pro-Israel, and has little sympathy for Putin (whom he’s labelled a war criminal).

Still, his focus seems more about reforming the Pentagon itself, prompting initial criticism on three fronts:

• First, whether he can succeed where others have failed (reforming a complex $850B organisation like the Pentagon)
• Second, whether he has the international experience to steward US alliances, and
• Third, whether some of his reforms might further politicise the Pentagon (The WSJ is reporting the possibility of a new board to purge generals, for example).

Meanwhile, there’ve been mixed reports on whether Trump is bringing Bob Lighthizer back as his trade chief, but the mere rumour has been enough to hit the Mexican peso (again), given Lighthizer was the architect of Trump 1.0’s use of tariffs against friend and foe alike. Lighthizer is widely tipped to return for Trump 2.0 one way or another.

As for the man himself? Trump is expected to return to public view today (Wednesday) for meetings with Joe Biden at the White House and Speaker Mike Johnson at the Capitol.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

As Helen says above, Washington’s current mantra is ‘personnel is policy’. But if there’s one thing we know about Trump, it’s that he’s not afraid to change personnel or policy. In fact, Trump 1.0 averaged one national security adviser per year.

Still, what can we infer about Trump 2.0 from these latest appointments?

• Trump now seems to be rolling out his new cabinet at a faster clip and with less drama, suggesting he’s better prepared this time around
• His cabinet picks are all hawks on China (and loyal to Trump), and
• They all see a role for continued US power abroad (just look at the outcry from some of the more isolationist voices within Trump’s base).

Plus, some of the key early announcements (like Rubio) really hail from the establishment. The upshot here is that US allies — and perhaps even some foes — may be breathing a sigh of relief: this doesn’t seem as disruptive as feared.

Also worth noting: 

• Trump has also nominated former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee as US ambassador to Israel, and Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN. Both are staunchly pro-Israel, and Stefanik spearheaded efforts to oust Ivy League presidents over anti-Semitism on campus.
• Trump’s pick to lead the CIA (John Ratcliffe) is a former prosecutor and Texas congressman, who was on Trump’s first impeachment defence team. He was the US spy chief (DNI) for the final eight months of Trump 1.0, after his initial nomination hit turbulence over claims he was too partisan and not qualified.
• Rubio and Waltz ultimately voted to certify Biden’s election in 2020. Stefanik, on the other hand, voted against certifying some of Biden’s votes.