Trump chats with Putin and Zelensky

As congratulatory calls continue to roll into Donald Trump’s Florida compound, two have caught our attention: one from Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday, and another from Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Thursday.

Given Trump’s pledge to end the Russo-Ukraine War within hours of re-taking office in January, it’s worth a quick look at both calls.

First, Zelensky described his call with Trump as “excellent“, though basic decorum (plus Trump’s fondness for flattery) makes this pretty standard these days. However, word then emerged that Zelensky was “somewhat reassured” by Trump’s vow to “support” Ukraine, building on Trump’s assurances from September: “I promise you will be happy with me.“

Interestingly, Elon Musk also joined the call, and Zelensky thanked him for Starlink’s role in Ukraine’s defence. But of course, Musk has also reportedly maintained (and refused to discuss) secret talks with Putin, while periodically echoing Putin’s talking points.

Then came Putin’s Thursday call with Trump, who reportedly…

• a) advised Putin to avoid escalating the war any further
• b) reminded Putin about the sizeable US military presence in Europe, and
• c) expressed an interest in follow-up conversations on securing peace in Europe.

That word ‘reportedly’ is doing some heavy lifting above, because the only details we have of Trump’s Putin call are those appearing in a single Washington Post article, and Kyiv has already rejected the article’s claim that Ukraine got a heads-up beforehand.

Anyway, the article doesn’t offer much insight into what Putin said on the call (beyond “congratulations”). But Russia’s public response to Trump’s win has been an interesting mix of caution (describing the US as “unfriendly”), optimism (declaring “the signals are positive”), flattery (praising Trump’s “courage”), gloating (a key ultranationalist tweeted “we’ve won”), mockery (state outlets have republished racy photos of Melania Trump), and defiance (17 Russian warplanes just imitated a mass missile launch at Ukraine).

Collectively, it all paints a picture of a more confident Russia, which is the type of thing you do ahead of any negotiation.

Meanwhile, rumours keep emerging about what exactly Trump has in mind, ranging from:

• Continued US support for Ukraine as a deterrent against Russia, in return for pushing Ukraine’s NATO bid out over the horizon (per Putin’s demands), and/or
• Perhaps some kind of demilitarised zone between the two foes, patrolled by unspecified European peacekeepers.

And that’s all against a brutal backdrop: Putin seized a record amount of Ukrainian land last month, though that cost him a record 1,500 troops per day, far eclipsing his monthly recruitment goal of 25,000 troops, and pushing Russia’s own total casualties past 700,000!

Meanwhile, there are breaking reports that Putin’s new 10,000 North Korean troops are among the 50,000-strong force he’s now amassing in an imminent attempt to re-take his own region of Kursk, while the two foes just exchanged record drone attacks this weekend.

So with all this talk of a Trump deal, and so much uncertainty in the air, it seems everyone’s now rushing to put themselves in the best possible negotiation position.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

The above snapshot suggests everyone senses an opportunity right now, but history will judge whether peace is even a viable, sustainable option at this stage.

Putin didn’t start his war out of a desire for the types of things any deal might offer, like land, or even a delay to Ukraine’s path to NATO membership.

Rather, he wanted to subdue his neighbours in pursuit of a faded image of Russia as a great power, all hinging on a belief that Ukraine isn’t even a real country. Is a deal — rather than a defeat — even capable of extinguishing that kind of longer-term aim?

Also worth noting:

• Trump just rejected any role for Mike Pompeo or Nikki Haley, which some take as a bad sign for Ukraine (given their vocal support for its self-defence). But it could just be more of a reminder how much Trump values loyalty (Haley was a Trump critic, and Pompeo didn’t endorse him until July).
• It’s hard to know how Putin’s imminent attempt to retake Kursk will play out, but his troops are poorly trained, the North Koreans are a wildcard without armour support, and the Ukrainians have spent months digging in.
• The Biden administration is now moving to rush the remaining $6B in US defence assistance to Ukraine before inauguration day.