When Wall Street woke up to check its Bloomberg terminals yesterday, they’ll have seen a headline that JP Morgan Chase now has its own ‘Center for Geopolitics’.
That’s America’s biggest bank launching something that sounds like a tweed-clad think-tank, led by Derek Chollet — a former Pentagon, State, and White House official.
And for anyone who’s been following the bank’s billionaire leader for a while (Jamie Dimon), this isn’t a surprise — he’s long weighed into this stuff, and periodically hosts world leaders at his Manhattan boardroom where his insights get rather spicy.
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Anyway, in launching the new unit, Dimon has declared that geopolitical risk is now “our greatest risk.” Not rates, not runs, not bubbles. Geopolitics.
He’s not alone, either. In the past year or so…
- Goldman Sachs has launched an advisory, billed as not “another think tank”
- Lazard’s CEO has described geopolitics as central to his business
- Citi has hired Bob Lighthizer (Trump 1.0’s trade guy) to advise on Trump 2.0
- BCG has launched its own Center for Geopolitics, and
- Kearney has launched its own Geopolitical Dynamics.
(Fun fact: we’re delighted to have Intriguers across all firms 👋)
Anyway… should businesses actually care about geopolitics?
The obvious and widely accepted answer is… yes. Still, there’s a gap between a) keeping up with the headlines, and b) having actionable insights. That’s why we founded Intrigue.
But here are some quick examples:
- Stocks. When Pakistan fought India, China’s military stocks soared. Why? China supplies Pakistan with kit, and it’s better than (say) Russia’s struggling gear. All good stuff to know before the stock soars, though even better to know the underlying trend we’ve long tracked: as we go multipolar, our world is re-arming.
- Supply chains. Covid and the Houthis were just warning shots. As rattled capitals peer outside, they’ll now see every chokepoint as a vulnerability to seize, if not an opportunity to exploit. So sure, push through that pandemic then bomb the ship-targeting Houthis, but supply chains will keep getting harder, not easier.
- Regulations. Those same spooked capitals are trying to re-assert guardrails back home, and that can cost or earn you billions. Just ask Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, who copped a $15B Trump ban on China chip sales one week, then scored Trump’s billion-dollar reprieve from Biden’s AI diffusion rules the next. Speaking of which…
- Access. That’s why the world’s top CEOs will clear their schedules to join Trump’s tours, attend Riyadh’s summits, or assemble for Xi’s audiences. Access can be existential. But it flows both ways, whether it’s Trump telling Walmart to eat his tariffs, or Xi strong-arming Hutchison not to sell its Panama Canal assets to the US.
- Macro. And behind it all, there’s central banks, bonds, rates, and currencies: as China devalues its yuan to offset US tariffs, its non-US exports surge while any yuan-denominated investments take a haircut. Or as Iran wobbles, crude oil spikes and bond yields jump as investors bet on inflation, all shaping currencies and state finances.
Now, none of that means CEOs want another deck of consulting slides. Rather, they want wise geopolitical counsel when making immediate decisions, a little like what world leaders get (or should get) from their foreign office.
Intrigue’s Take
Seeing all these vast corporations announcing their geopolitical units one after the other occasionally leaves us with a teeeeensy dash of career regret: maybe we could’ve had that Range Rover in the garage and that Samsung Frame up on the wall by selling our same takes for millions instead of giving them away for free? But no Frame or Rover can compensate for the fun we’re having, nor the community you’re helping us build.
Interestingly, our ex-diplomat friends in that corporate world tell us it’s getting wild: while banks first hired them to help internal executives make better decisions, they’re now getting wheeled out for board appearances every time a client so much as sneezes towards a map. So there’s a real thirst for insight right now.
And that means, dear Intriguers, this is your moment to dust off that unloved international relations degree and shine (and buy our ads).
