Israel strikes Iran

Thought you could have a nice, relaxed, geopolitics-free weekend? Perhaps pop down to Home Depot if you get time? Wrong. 

Following a day of mysterious security alerts for US and Israeli diplomats in the Middle East (suggesting they had intel something was up), Israel has now struck targets in Iran.

The dust is still settling, but the strikes appear to have hit…

• Nuclear facilities like Iran’s key enrichment site in Natanz
• Military sites including Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities
• Military leaders, with reports the dead include Hossein Salami (the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps) plus at least two other top officers, and
• At least two of Iran’s key nuclear scientists.

Even with the full picture still emerging, the scale of this operation appears staggering, with over 200 warplanes hitting some 100 targets. And Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu is warning this will continue for “as many days as it takes.”

In response, Iran has now launched ~100 drones at Israel (no reported hits) and issued its own warnings that “the strong hand of the Islamic Republic will not let them go”.

So why’d Israel do this, and why now? There’ve been a few drivers in parallel.

First, the board of the world’s top nuclear watchdog (the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA) had just dropped a spicy finding for the first time in decades, catching Iran acting in ways that make it tough to believe its nuclear program is just peaceful. 

For its part, Iran slammed the IAEA’s finding as “politically motivated”, while it also…

• Announced a new uranium facility (likely already built but not yet online), and
• Test-launched a banned ballistic missile with a two-tonne warhead.  

But the IAEA could now refer Iran to the UN Security Council, which could reimpose sanctions that leaders eased under an Obama-era deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program (Iran’s enrichment levels remained stable under that agreement until Trump 1.0 withdrew).

And yet… Intriguers will recall permanent Security Council members (including China and Russia) can veto pretty much anything. And guess which two are also IAEA members who just so happened to side with Iran on this latest IAEA ruling? Yep, China and Russia, who find common cause with Iran and North Korea in pursuit of a post-US-led world.

So there’s scepticism around whether the Security Council could/would even do anything.

Second, and in parallel, Trump 2.0 has been trying a mix of maximum pressure and direct talks with Iran. But despite the occasional glimmer of hope, those talks haven’t yet seen results, and Trump’s two-month deal-or-war deadline expired on Wednesday.

Third, this all played out while US-Israel ties wobbled:

• President Trump became frustrated as the Israel-Hamas war dragged on, undermining his election pledge to impose peace through strength, and
• PM Netanyahu got irked as his US ally side-lined him while negotiating directly with foes like Iran and the Houthis, who’ve both publicly yearned for Israel’s end. Bibi argued Iran was just stringing the president along while still pursuing nukes, and he’s now seemingly just dismissed a direct Trump request to not hit Iran.

Then fourth, there’s the rubble of Iran’s proxy strategy, which worked a weeeee bit like a nuclear triad — but instead of deterring everyone via nukes in the air, land, and sea (the triad), Iran sponsored and relied on groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. And yet, those groups already pulled their triggers, and got massively degraded in response.

So it seems Bibi weighed up the four factors above, then decided to pull his own trigger.

Intrigue’s Take

Details are still emerging, but there are early indications these strikes might’ve:

• a) set Iran’s nuclear program back decades, and/or
• b) set the region on another escalatory path ahead.

Anyway, while everyone holds their breath, one way to assess these latest development is to consider who wins and loses here:

• Netanyahu will claim a win having defanged Iran’s military and nuclear program, and he’ll welcome this latest distraction from his woes back home. But his critics might also notch it all up as continued evidence of his destabilising over-reach
• Iran’s mullahs will be humiliated again, with a possible whack to their grip on local power, though they might also enjoy a rally-around-the-flag effect plus sympathetic noises from Moscow and Beijing about any violation of Iran’s borders
• President Trump might be peeved if not embarrassed that the Israelis charged ahead solo and upended his Iran talks (due to resume Sunday), but maybe Iran will now do a deal for sanctions relief if it’s got no nuclear program left as leverage
• Iran’s neighbours (like the Saudis and Emiratis) will tisk-tisk Israel’s strikes in public, but they’ll quietly cheer the knee-capping of Iran’s nuclear program, something they’ve long condemned as a destabilising force in the region
• Ukraine will probably count this as a win too, given it potentially reduces Iran’s ability to supply Russia with the drones Putin uses to attack Ukrainian cities, and
• Both Russia and China will condemn these strikes on a sovereign country (Putin will somehow manage a straight face), but their press releases will also serve as another reminder of the regional limits to their own power.

Sound even smarter:

• World oil prices have already spiked 12% in the aftermath of these strikes. 
• According to the IAEA, Iran was the only non-nuclear-armed power rapidly accumulating “highly enriched uranium” — you need 3-5% enrichment for nuclear energy, but Iran is stockpiling at 60%, just a short technical step from the 90% you need for nuclear weapons.