🌍 Global rice prices are on the rise

Hi there Intriguer. Starbucks locations are getting kinda ridiculous. You can get your pumpkin spiced latte on a train in Switzerland. Or your orange mocha Frappuccino on a cruise ship in the Caribbean. There’s even a 24/7 Starbucks inside the CIA, where the baristas don’t write names on cups for security reasons (seriously).

Today’s briefing is a 4 min read:

• 🍚 Global rice prices hit 11-year high.

• 💰 The ultra-wealthy are snapping up trophy homes in Dubai.

• ➕ Plus: An historic football match, how the papers are covering Israel’s incursion into the Jenin refugee camp, and how US ammo ended up in Russian rifles.

1. 🇭🇰 Hong Kong: Authorities have issued warrants and offered $128k rewards for the arrest of eight pro-democracy activists on alleged national security offences. The activists now reside in Australia, the UK, and the US, which have no extradition treaty with China.

2. 🇪🇺 EU: The European Commission is proposing the EU’s first-ever soil health law to protect and regenerate soil damaged by intensive farming. According to one study, more than 60% of EU soil is in an “unhealthy state”.

3. 🇮🇩 Indonesia: The IMF is encouraging Indonesia to phase out mineral export bans to avoid destabilising global markets. Indonesia imposed additional restrictions on nickel, bauxite, copper and tin exports earlier this year to encourage more value-added processing in Indonesia.

4. 🇧🇷 Brazil: BYD, a China-based Tesla competitor, has announced it’ll invest $620M in Brazil to build its first production plant outside Asia. Brazil has launched a charm offensive to attract more Chinese investment.

5. 🇪🇹 Ethiopia: Lawmakers have approved the creation of Ethiopia’s 12th regional state, called ‘Southern Ethiopian Region’. Folks in the ethnically diverse region voted overwhelmingly in favour of carving out their own state in a February referendum.

🍚 Global | Supply Chains

Global rice prices are rising

Global rice prices are at an 11-year high and rising, much to the dismay of the 3.5 billion people who rely on the staple as a primary nutrient.

What’s happening?

As always, there are several factors at work here, but two stand out:

1. 🌾 Declining yields

After six years of slow but steady growth, total output is projected to decline this year. This is mostly due to shifting weather patterns across Asia, home to 90% of global rice production.

In particular, it seems the warmer El Niño phenomenon is on its way.

2. 💸 Increased government support in India

Ahead of next year’s elections, India has increased the price it pays its rice farmers by 7%. And being home to almost half of world rice exports, India’s price rise has quickly spilled into global markets.

Plus of course, this is all exacerbated by tight global food and fertiliser markets following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Intrigue's take: If you’ve been reading Intrigue for a while… thanks!

But also, you might’ve noticed a pattern: as prices rise, governments face pressure to curb key exports, whether it’s Indian ‘broken’ rice, Malaysian chicken, Australian LNG, or Indonesian palm oil.

The items and locations change, but the underlying drivers stay the same: sensing volatility, governments are pulling up the drawbridge. Yet history suggests this can often just beget more volatility.

Also worth noting:

• Rice is highly susceptible to changes in the climate, with most rice cultivated in regions close to its optimal temperature range.

• Global pasta prices are also on the rise, to the extent that Italian consumer groups are calling for a boycott.

📰 How newspapers covered…

The Israeli military’s incursion into Jenin this week

Unlock special perks with International Intrigue.

Here’s a quick refresher on our referral perks (which you can access at the bottom of this email):

• 📚 Intrigue’s Top Picks – 2 referrals: Check out the team’s favourite books, articles, tv shows and more.

• 🕵️‍♀️ The Diplomatic Club – 5 referrals: First access to new products and features, plus a WhatsApp group chat with other International Intrigue lovers.

• 🕺Intrigue Sticker Pack – 8 referrals: Stickers for your phone, laptop or water bottle.

• 💵 Intrigue IOU – 15 referrals: Get one of the team members to give you advice, feedback on a paper, or just a general chat.

• ☕️ Intrigue Mug – 35 referrals: A fancy branded mug for your morning cuppa.

• 🧳 Away Suitcase – 100 referrals: Travel in style with what some might call the Rolls-Royce of luggage.

💰 Dubai | Wealth

The world’s wealthy are headed to Dubai

Dubai has emerged as the world's top market for luxury real estate, according to a Knight Frank report released this week.

The Emirate was home to just 2% of all super-prime (>$10M) sales as recently as 2019. It’s now at 17%, due to several push factors:

• 🧾 Some nations have hiked their wealth and property taxes

• ⛔ Others have imposed sanctions on many likely buyers, and

• 🏃 Up to 400,000 Russians have headed to the UAE since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

There are also pull factors at play:

• 🏝️ Dubai is good for low taxes and laying low (it’s home to exiled ex-leaders of Thailand and Afghanistan, and the former king of Spain)

• 💵 And it’s relatively cheap ($1M still buys triple the luxury space you’d get in London).

Intrigue’s take: Domestically, societies all over are wrestling with a suite of philosophical, political, and economic questions around inequality right now.

But across borders, and with capital so footloose these days, this data out of Dubai suggests things are shaping up to be more of a free-for-all.

Also worth noting:

• $125M will get you a six-bedder in Dubai’s ritzy Umm Suqeim neighbourhood. If you're on a budget, $95M will get you a pad in Emirates Hills with a suspended glass bridge.

• 4,500 millionaires will relocate to the UAE this year. That ranks second in the world after Australia.

➕ Extra Intrigue

Team Intrigue is back with another round of weekend suggestions:

• 10 mins: Read about how US ammunition has made its way into Russian rifles.

• 30 mins: Listen to the surprising philosophy behind Monopoly, the most famous board game ever.

• 50 mins: Watch the first episode of ‘Evacuation’, a three-part documentary about the UK evacuation from Kabul in 2021.

🗳️ Quiz time!

Test your knowledge of international sporting highlights on the forward calendar!

📸 Photo of the day

On this day in 1992, South Africa played its first FIFA soccer match against Cameroon, heralding its readmission to soccer’s governing body following decades of apartheid-related isolation. South Africa’s team, ‘Bafana Bafana’, won the friendly 1-0 and went on to be crowned African champions in 1996.

Answers: 1-b, 2-c, 3-a.