Plus: Riken Yamamoto wins Pritzker Architecture Prize
Hi Intriguer. There’s a creole proverb that says ‘kouri lapli, tonbe larivyè’. It translates as ‘running in the rain, falling in the river’, and refers to when you’re trying to avoid one outcome, only to end up with something worse.
It’s a proverb from Haiti, and it feels apt for what just happened there – the de-facto leader went abroad seeking help to tame the country’s gangs, only to have those very same gangs stop his plane from landing on return.
That’s what leads our briefing today.
– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
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Nikki Haley drops out. The former US ambassador to the UN has dropped out of the US presidential primary race after losing all but one state to Donald Trump in the ‘Super Tuesday’ primaries. Haley stopped short of endorsing Trump, saying "it is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond who did not support him and I hope he does that.”
Israeli tank fired at journalists, report finds. A report by a Dutch research firm contracted by Reuters has found that an Israeli tank opened fire at a group of journalists in October and “likely” directed machine gun fire at their location. The attack left one Reuters visuals reporter dead and several more journalists injured. Commenting on preliminary findings in December, Israel said it does not target journalists and that the incident took place in an active combat zone.
China trade sees encouraging rebound. China’s imports and exports have grown faster than expected in the first two months of this year. The rebound was partly driven by an upswing in the global tech products cycle, as well as increased trade with Russia, Brazil, and India.
Houthi attacks cause first fatalities. A Houthi missile strike on a Barbados-flagged dry bulk carrier in the Red Sea killed three sailors yesterday. The Houthis say they’re targeting US, UK, and Israel-linked shipping in solidarity with the Palestinians. Shipping journal Lloyd’s List believes the Houthis may be using outdated information to identify their targets.
Ex Google employee accused of stealing trade secrets. US authorities have arrested a software engineer on charges of stealing Google’s AI trade secrets while secretly working with two rival firms in China. Prosecutors say Linwei Ding stole more than 500 confidential files, potentially landing him in prison for up to a decade.
The hottest February on record. EU authorities say global temperatures in February were 1.77°C above the pre-industrial average, the highest on record. This is the ninth consecutive month to break a monthly temperature record.
TOP STORY
Gangs block Haiti leader Ariel Henry’s return
Gang leader Jimmy "Barbecue" Chérizier (L) and Prime Minister Ariel Henry (R)
Haiti’s prime minister, Ariel Henry, is currently stranded outside his own country after armed gangs stopped him from landing at Port-au-Prince’s main airport.
The prime minister’s travel book has been full lately: he was in Guyana a week ago, promising Caribbean leaders he’ll finally hold elections in 2025. He then travelled to Nairobi to try and progress plans for Kenya to lead a UN-backed security deployment to restore order in Haiti.
But while he was away, armed gangs led by former police officer Jimmy ‘Barbecue’ Chérizier saw an opportunity, freeing thousands of inmates from Haiti’s main prison before attacking the main airport. Returning home, Henry ended up having to land in Puerto Rico instead.
And now the gang leader, Barbecue, isn’t mincing his words: “If Ariel Henry doesn’t resign, if the international community continues to support him, we’ll be heading straight for a civil war that will lead to genocide”.
But why would the prime minister resign? He came to power as a caretaker after the 2021 assassination of the former leader, but he’s since failed to organise elections or win broad support. Many, including Barbecue (who’s enjoying his own taste of power), argue Henry now lacks the legitimacy to continue.
While this political crisis lingers, Haiti’s chaos continues:
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Most of the capital is now under gang control
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Some 8,400 folks were killed, injured, or kidnapped by gangs last year
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And >15% of Haiti’s ~12 million people have been internally displaced
Police are leaving the beleaguered national force in droves, neighbouring Dominican Republic (which shares an island with Haiti) is rattled, and both countries’ leaders have made repeated calls for an international intervention.
So now, the world faces some tough decisions on what to do:
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Political – What to do with Ariel Henry?
Until now, the international community has supported Henry, but this week’s events seem to have tipped the balance against him. According to the Miami Herald, the US has now done a 180, using Henry’s unscheduled stopover in Puerto Rico to push for his resignation in favour of a new transitional government.
And US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield has now confirmed the US asked Henry to “move forward on a political process that will lead to the establishment of a presidential transitional council that will lead to elections”.
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Security – What to do with the UN-backed multinational force?
Responding to requests for help, the UN authorised a Kenya-led and US/Canada-financed intervention last year, but Kenya is still working through a range of legal, logistical, and political hurdles, plus there’s entrenched opposition in Haiti.
Why the opposition in Haiti? It’s because the world’s track record there is so dismal, whether it’s France’s colonial history, the subsequent US occupation, or the UN’s 15 years of peacekeeping that wrapped in 2019 after being linked to a devastating cholera outbreak and sexual abuse.
Kenya says it’s still proceeding with its mission, though timeframes are unclear. Chances are there’ll be another leader in place by the time Kenyan police touch down in Port-au-Prince. And that’s assuming local gangs let the Kenyans land.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
One of the many reasons why there’s been so much dithering around another international intervention is that it’s hard – if not impossible – to pull it off without bolstering the power of a guy very few now see as legitimate.
So maybe – just maybe – if Ariel Henry takes this US exit ramp on offer, there’s a way forward that involves another transitional government, elections, and a path to longer-term, Haitian-led solutions.
But at this point, it’s hard to see this happening while armed gangs still run the show; it’s harder to see those gangs laying down their arms unless someone forces them to do so; and it’s harder still to see a thousand or so Kenyan police officers being enough to pull that off.
Also worth noting:
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Kenya’s leader, William Ruto, says his country’s planned role in Haiti is a “mission for humanity”, fulfilling Kenya’s obligation to Africa and Africa’s diaspora in Haiti. Kenyan media outlets say Ruto also sees this as a way to lift his profile as a regional leader and global statesman. Kenya’s police have a chequered history at home.
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The French-speaking West African nation of Benin last week offered to contribute up to 2,000 troops to the Kenya-led mission.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇲🇳 Mongolia: A Space-X Falcon-9 rocket has launched the first-ever Mongolian satellites. Mongolia’s aim is to improve connectivity in the sparsely-populated country, and potentially jumpstart its space sector.
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🇬🇧 UK: British Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has unveiled a $13B pre-election tax cut for workers in the country’s last Spring budget before the Brits go to the polls later this year. The UK is projected to grow by less than 1% in 2024.
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🇦🇺 Australia: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has unveiled plans for a US$1.3B fund to “turbocharge” economic ties with Southeast Asia. He made the announcement while hosting a summit with the regional bloc (ASEAN), ending with a call to uphold the “rules-based regional architecture” and establish a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.
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🇵🇪 Peru: President Dina Boluarte has replaced her prime minister after a leaked recording revealed possible corruption and inappropriate behaviour. Boluarte has been one of the region’s most unpopular leaders since her government’s deadly crackdown on mass protests in 2022-23.
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🇪🇬 Egypt: The Egyptian pound slipped to a record low against the US dollar yesterday (Wednesday), shortly after the central bank hiked interest rates and announced plans to let the currency float freely. It’s part of a series of requests by the IMF to secure a loan expansion.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what’s been happening in other worlds
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Sports: French soccer superstar Kylian Mbappé literally ripped the net with his opening goal on Tuesday night, helping Paris Saint-Germain advance to the Champions League quarterfinals.
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Science: Researchers in France, Korea and elsewhere are finding signs of a new type of magnet, which combines the most prized features of the two conventional magnet types (ferromagnet and antiferromagnet).
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Society: The favourite to win Sunday’s Oscar for best foreign film is The Zone of Interest, a harrowing Auschwitz-set and German-language drama, submitted by the United Kingdom.
ARCHITECT OF THE DAY
Courtesy of The Pritzker Architecture Prize
Japan’s Riken Yamamoto has been named the 53rd recipient of the Pritzker Architecture Prize, often touted as the Nobel Prize of architecture.
The jury, led by Chilean architect and 2016 laureate Alejandro Aravena, commended Yamamoto for the way his buildings foster community by blurring the boundary between public and private. He’s Japan’s ninth Pritzker laureate.
In his five-decade career across Japan, China, Korea, and Switzerland, Yamamoto has designed homes, schools, museums, and even a fire station. You can check out some of his work here.
DAILY POLL
What do you think the international community should do to address the Haiti crisis? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think China's economy will recover its mojo this year?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 📈 Yes, Xi Jinping will do whatever it takes (30%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🙅 No, Xi's responses so far just aren't enough (45%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (25%)
Your two cents:
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🙅 C.W: “The structural issues with China's economy require more change than I believe China is willing to address. The internal controls limit the adaptability of the economy and make it difficult to self-correct.”
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📈 W.T: “Xi will nationalize foreign-owned business and the West will be scared to complain.”
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✍️ M.C.M: “Xi doesn't seem to be willing to dabble into uncharted territory when it comes to economic policy (which has proven lacking, if the last few years are to be considered). The ship will keep its course steady and predictable, towards (relatively) modest growth.”
✏️ Corrections corner
In yesterday’s reference to a possible future foreign minister of China, we misspelt his name as ‘Lui’ (instead of the correct ‘Liu’) Jianchao. 🤦