Plus: Meme of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Iran vows revenge over Israel’s embassy hit |
2️⃣ Meme of the day |
3️⃣ The perils of youtubing in Venezuela |
Hi Intriguer. One of the many perks of being a diplomat was having diplomatic immunity. It's an age-old concept that was distilled into the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, aiming to provide a safe legal status for diplomats to do their jobs in a foreign country.
Of course, there’ve also been many abuses of said privileges by diplomats, including dodging parking fines, trafficking gold bars, and even escaping the odd criminal charge. The most egregious act I committed in my day was smuggling two legs of ham past customs.
Today’s top story looks at a much more serious alleged breach of this concept, as we dive into Israel's airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria.
Biden and Xi get talkin’
US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping held a call yesterday (Tuesday) in an attempt to keep communication lines open. The brief US read-out emphasises China’s unfair trade practices “which harm American workers and families”, while China’s longer summary says it’s not going to “sit on its hands” in response to Taiwanese independence efforts and their “external” (ie, US) supporters. A bit of common ground? Both sides describe the talks as “candid”.
Strongest earthquake in 25 years shakes Taiwan
A magnitude 7.2 earthquake hit Taiwan earlier this morning, resulting in at least seven casualties, multiple collapsed buildings, and widespread power outages. The tremor and aftershocks hit just as many folks were preparing to travel for tomorrow’s Tomb Sweeping Day to respect ancestors.
NATO plans $107B Ukraine fund
NATO foreign ministers are landing in Brussels to discuss long-term support for Ukraine, including a proposal to set up a $107B five-year aid fund “to shield the mechanism against the winds of political change” (ie, to Trump-proof it). If approved, the proposal would give NATO more direct control over the flow of arms and ammunition to Kyiv. Meanwhile, President Zelensky has lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25 to boost Ukraine’s military numbers.
Gaza’s infrastructure damage, quantified
The ongoing conflict in Gaza has caused over $18.5B in damages to the strip’s critical infrastructure, according to a new report by the World Bank. The figure is equivalent to 97% of the total output of the West Bank and Gaza in 2022. The report also states the entirety of Gaza’s population is experiencing “acute food insecurity and malnutrition”.
The Moon gets its own time
The White House has asked NASA to collaborate with its international partners to figure out a standardised time system on the Moon, a.k.a Coordinated Lunar Time (LTC).
TOP STORY
Iran vows revenge for Israeli airstrike on diplomatic compound
Iran has vowed to retaliate after accusing Israel of carrying out an airstrike on an Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, on Monday. The explosion levelled an Iranian consular facility and killed at least 13 people, including three senior commanders from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Israel hasn’t officially claimed the attack, though its officials are now quietly confirming the obvious, while denying the building (which Iran says housed a consular section and the ambassador’s residence) held diplomatic status.
It’s part of a yearslong shadow war between the two, including cyberattacks, assassinations, proxy militias, and airstrikes.
But this latest hit looks like a real escalation for three main reasons.
-
The location
Breaching (let alone flattening) a foreign diplomatic premises is clearly a big deal. Just ask the British authorities who waited seven years before executing (with Ecuador’s consent) an arrest warrant on Julian Assange; or the Turkish authorities who waited two weeks before entering (with Riyadh’s consent) the Saudi consulate where a US-based journalist had just been assassinated.
Bigness of the deal aside, Israeli and other sources are arguing this particular Iranian complex had lost any diplomatic status because of who was there at the time, and what exactly they were doing…
-
The targets
The strike targeted a war meeting of Iranian generals and spies with leaders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a Gaza-based group armed and funded by Iran. The resulting dead included multiple players like Brig. General Mohamad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in the Quds Force, which runs the IRGC’s foreign proxy and intelligence operations.
Zahedi was under international sanctions and is now the highest-ranking Iranian official to be killed since the 2020 US assassination of Qassem Suleimani.
-
The context
Israel is already in varying degrees of armed conflict with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen (all Iran-backed). And while Iran has been making noises that it’s not seeking direct war, the world has consistently feared the possibility of a broader regional conflict breaking out.
So given the real risk of escalation here, why pull the trigger?
That’s probably a question only Israel’s top brass can answer, though there are several factors that could influence such a decision:
-
Pinpointing and then hitting such a sensitive meeting on foreign soil is a military-intelligence flex for Israel, which has long relied on deterrence in a hostile neighbourhood
-
That kind of flex also burnishes the image of those in Israel blamed for failing to foresee and forestall October’s Hamas attacks
-
It also ‘raises the costs’ on Iran for its strategy of targeting Israel via armed proxy groups (including in a drone strike just hours earlier)
-
Israel probably assumes Iran will (again) only be willing or able to offer relatively limited responses, further eroding Iran’s own deterrence, and
-
Israel is likely also ‘testing’ Iran, to build a clearer picture of where its lines are and how its leaders respond to them being crossed.
So, what now?
True to form, Iran is vowing revenge, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pledging to “make them regret this crime”. And right on cue, Hezbollah has also declared the attack “will certainly not pass without the enemy receiving punishment and revenge”.
And will they carry out this threat? Iran has previously claimed hits on Israeli intelligence outposts in the region. With its domestic and regional credibility now on the line, it’ll feel pressure to hit Israel closer to home.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
The U.S. would ordinarily have been in the loop for something like this, but it’s moved quickly to declare it played no role and had no heads-up. Whether this is because it was cut out or chose to distance itself, it’s a solid reflection of where US-Israel ties are at right now. Iran is still blaming the US either way.
And speaking of Iran – sure, its generals weren’t in the Damascus consular section to help issue passports to fellow citizens. But that’s not really in dispute here.
The broader issue is that the decision to flatten a part of Iran’s embassy (rather than, say, hit a motorcade) shifts the rules of the game again. It opens the door for an adversary to argue that any diplomatic premises with a military presence is now fair game.
And many countries (including Israel) should feel uncomfortable about that.
Also worth noting:
A MESSAGE FROM LYKEION
Lykeion is an independent financial media outlet founded by a team of ex-portfolio managers and geopolitical analysts.
Every week, Lykeion sends out investment-grade research and insightful commentary on macro-trends and thematic analysis that focuses on the intersection of financial markets and geopolitics.
And, for a limited time only, they're giving Intriguers 2 months free of Lykeion Plus: deep dive editorials, macro research, and thematic overviews, all at the intersection of financial markets and geopolitics.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
-
🇰🇷 South Korea: South Korean car manufacturer Hyundai and Indonesian mining company Adaro Minerals have terminated an aluminium supply agreement after pressure from thousands of K-pop fans concerned about the environment. The agreement was criticised for its carbon-intensive process.
-
🇺🇦 Ukraine: A Ukrainian drone has hit Russia’s third-biggest refinery, causing a fire but no critical damage. Around 14% of Russia's refining capacity has been shut down through Ukrainian drone attacks in recent months.
-
🇮🇳 India: Delhi has rejected China’s renaming of over 30 locations in India’s northern state of Arunachal Pradesh, over which Beijing claims sovereignty. India’s foreign ministry branded the move as “senseless”.
-
🇻🇪 Venezuela: Popular US-based travel youtuber Oscar Alejandro Pérez has been released after local police detained him over alleged “activities related to terrorism”. He had shown a site where Venezuelan banks house their servers, and said “if a bomb were thrown at this building, the whole national banking system would collapse."
-
🇸🇳 Senegal: Newly elected president Bassirou Diomaye Faye was sworn in yesterday (Tuesday), completing his spectacular rise from obscure jailed opposition figure to head of state in three weeks. The presidents of neighbouring Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, The Gambia, Ghana, and Nigeria all attended.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
We’re giving away two VIP tickets to another great event!
Our friends over at Tangle News are hosting a live conversation on the 2024 US election at City Winery in NYC on 17 April. Don’t miss special guests Josh Hammer (Newsweek), Catherine Rampell (Washington Post) and Kmele Foster (The Fifth Column).
MEME OF THE DAY
You can check out the work of our resident meme lord (Jeremy) over on Instagram (@diplohumour)
This one is less a dig at think tanks, and more a reflection on how diplomats are often too busy to, well… reflect. There’s always a crisis, whether it’s a natural disaster, a consular emergency, or a mildly inconvenienced minister. And let’s not forget: those hams aren’t going to smuggle themselves.
DAILY POLL
How do you think Iran will retaliate for Monday's strike on its embassy complex? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think is causing Havana Syndrome?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🇷🇺 The Russians have a motive and have been working on the weapon (82%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💊 These symptoms are common and can be explained through natural causes (13%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (5%)
Your two cents:
-
🇷🇺 A.G: “Even if the acoustic weaponry is a false conclusion, it wouldn't surprise me if Russian intelligence was using other methods like monoxide or propagation of mold or some such to interfere with individuals then use the convenient cover of acoustic media reporting.”
-
💊 E.K.H: “A lot of the symptoms sound like panic attacks, which shouldn't really be that surprising in that line of work.”
-
✍️ K.J.G: “Who knows? Moving a neurological radio energy weapon in and out of countries involves more than a diplomatic note, unless it's something small (it wouldn't be small if it can penetrate compound walls and cause damage to people inside). Also, there's no signal intelligence at these embassies? Highly unlikely that it would not have spiked on a signals receiver.”
-
✍️ H.S: “Either option is entirely feasible. Without clear evidence of physiological causes, a technological cause could be it–and just as easily vice versa.”
Was this forwarded to you? We're a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 85k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.