Number of the day

1% 

That’s the discount Philippine leader Ferdinand Marcos Jr. managed to shave off President Trump’s 20% Liberation Day tariffs, announcing a new deal featuring US tariffs of… 19%.

The Epstein files

We didn’t leave the foreign service to write about Jeffrey Epstein, but the convicted predator is still dominating discourse from beyond the grave. So it’s time we took a quick look at how this issue is now rippling around the world

But first, a non-exhaustive-but-still-exhausting recap of the latest: 

• The justice department claims it’s not found any “incriminating ‘client list’”, and plans no further releases. Together with the FBI, it’s also shared “unedited” prison CCTV around Epstein’s death that… it turns out was a bit edited. 

• This has angered the president’s base, given he campaigned on releasing it all.

• After variously rejecting cover-up claims and blaming opponents for anything out there, the president directed his attorney-general to release grand jury testimony.

• Then yesterday (Tuesday), Speaker Mike Johnson adjourned the House early for summer to avoid a vote on releasing all Epstein files, describing the motion as "a political battering ram".

So why’s this now appearing in your favourite geopolitics briefing? Five reasons: 

• 🇺🇸 USA 

No matter which Veep season you’re up to, DC is still the world’s power capital. By far. And both its major parties have an Epstein problem, given both Presidents Trump and Clinton appear in Epstein’s private jet flight logs, for example.

They’ve since distanced themselves and continue to deny any wrongdoing, but it’s now Trump in power facing the continued drip-drip of allegations, meaning three things:

• Polls suggest American voters are unhappy with how he’s handling this

• Prominent members of his base are unhappy with how he’s handling this, and

• Erstwhile friends in the media aren’t afraid to go public with new claims.

So foreign embassies will be exploring how this might a) distract the president and his administration, b) shape next year’s mid-terms, and c) loosen Trump’s grip on power.

And you can bet that’ll all factor into the strategies employed by US rivals, such as…

• 🇷🇺 Russia 

State-owned outlet Russia Today isn’t wasting any time: it posted about this sordid saga eight times in 19 hours on Tuesday, and had a similar focus the prior week when Trump announced a possible pivot to support Ukraine’s self-defence.

Why? Separate to any legitimate public interest above, the Kremlin is a master at using public discourse to sow discord, disunity, distrust, and destabilisation among rivals. And Epstein is ideal for that because it’s: a) a real story, b) home-grown, c) already raging, and d) plays naturally to the kinds of populist, anti-establishment narratives Moscow loves abroad (if not at home): a cabal of elites running the world and evading accountability.

Just fanning the story is enough to push more voters towards the fringe, while pitting the Dems against MAGA, MAGA against itself, citizens against elites, and the little guy against a deep state. It also helps the Kremlin undermine the credibility of any White House decision it doesn’t like: oh, helping Ukraine defend itself? Just a distraction from Epstein.

But rivals do more than just amplify this story. They also embellish it, like its link to… 

• 🇮🇱 Israel

Epstein invested in Israeli start-ups and repeatedly met ex-PM Ehud Barak long after US courts had convicted the disgraced American. 

And that’s been enough fodder for theories that Epstein was secretly working for Israel’s foreign intelligence service, Mossad. Some of that theory’s biggest proponents still get platformed on Russia’s state-owned Sputnik, continuing Moscow’s long history of leveraging divisive themes like anti-Semitism to erode Western unity.

And it’s all been enough to prompt a recent statement by another former Israeli PM, Naftali Bennett, condemning “a vicious wave of slander and lies against my country”.

Meanwhile, it’s also a reminder of Epstein’s ability to build elite networks, even in…

• 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia

During Epstein’s 2019 trial, prosecutors presented a fake Austrian passport listing a Saudi address, and featuring (among other things) Saudi entry stamps dating back to the ‘80s. His infamous ‘black book’ of contacts also contained listings for Saudi royals, and Epstein himself boasted of close ties to the kingdom’s crown prince (MBS) in 2018.

Of course, there’s no suggestion of wrongdoing here, but it’s yet another foreign capital engulfed in the never-ending Epstein saga. The Saudis still haven’t commented, unlike…

• 🇬🇧 British ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson 

His classically British, stoic, diplomatic statement on all this? “F*ck off”.

That’s what he recently told FT journalists asking about his Epstein links, which resurfaced via an internal JPMorgan report describing Epstein’s “particularly close” ties not just with the disgraced Prince Andrew, but Britain’s own political operator and now top envoy in DC, Lord Peter Mandelson: “I regret ever meeting him or being introduced to him by his partner Ghislaine Maxwell. I regret even more the hurt he caused to many young women.”

And maybe we should leave it there.

Intrigue’s Take

It’s such a sordid story, but hopefully you can see from the above glimpse why an Intrigue update was inevitable: royals, presidents, plutocrats, and even diplomats are getting burnt.

So what might we learn from all this?

• Power has a natural network effect: access begets access, which begets impunity. Whatever (and wherever) the issue, you’re eventually a call away from a solution.

• Populism is potent but unpredictable: it can engulf its own champions if they cross the wrong line, less on the left-right axis, and more elites-vs-the people.

• Sunlight is the answer: whether it’s despotic elites like Putin or the destabilising potential of populism, they leverage darkness, doubt, and deflection, all enabled here by systematic failures to hold Epstein to account decades ago.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

The Intrigue jobs board 💼

• Tech Risk and Controls Lead @ JPMorganChase in Shanghai

• Public Affairs Officer (Temp) @ European Automobile Manufacturers Association in Brussels

• Program Manager Policy, LATAM @ Airbnb in São Paulo or Mexico City

And some extra DC opportunities for any Intriguers caught up in the State layoffs:

• Associate Fellow @ Center for a New American Security 

• International Affairs Action Officer @ Booz Allen Hamilton

• Program Officer, Tech Policy Program @ CEPA

• Director, Donor Engagement @ Center for Disaster Philanthropy 

Competition of the day

Math nerds, unite! The International Mathematical Olympiad took place on Australia’s Sunshine Coast over the weekend, helicopter parents and all. The dominant powers of China, the US, and Korea again crushed it, coming first, second, and third respectively.

But you know what? There were also two AI competitors in the mix: Google and OpenAI.

And while both bots reached gold-level scores, neither machine scored full marks (unlike five of the young humans present). Still, they’re improving rapidly. Last year, Google’s AI took two or three days to eke out a silver. This year? Just hours for a gold.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: What do you think should take priority in the Motuo dam project?

⚡ China's energy transition (18%)
👥 Local Tibetan wishes (43%)
🌊 The concerns of neighbours (35%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• ⚡ B.S: “China’s energy sector is one of the dirtiest, most carbon intensive industries globally. This is exactly the type of swing-for-the-fences move every nation needs to be making, China most of all.”

• 👥 L.C: “Demoralizing the religious people in Tibet by flooding a valley containing ancient temples is disgusting. Further proof that greed for power is destroying our world!”

• 🌊 E.K.H: “This could turn off the tap for a population bigger than the entire US. Even without an explicit threat, the knowledge that they could would be enough to force their neighbors into just about any concessions.”

• ✍️ G.C: “I don't think there should be a priority. Everything needs to be considered. People, their homes and culture, water for everyone. No one country should control the water for many.”